The shape of India's next
government could lie in the hands of a trio of women who command a massive
following in their states and are called Amma (mother), Didi, (older sister)
and Behenji (also older sister) by their supporters. Known more for their
charisma than policies, Jayalalithaa Jayaram, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati
could play pivotal roles in coalition negotiations after the marathon general
election that begins on April 07, 2014.
The BJP's Narendra Modi is
the frontrunner, but his party is not expected to win an outright majority,
underlining the growing support for regional parties. It is now three decades
since any party won more than 50 per cent of the seats in Parliament.
In particular, analysts say,
Ms Jayalalithaa, chief minister of Tamil Nadu, could play the role of kingmaker
for Mr. Modi after telling her supporters that it is time for a change in New Delhi.
Noticeable by its absence at
her rallies has been criticism of Mr Modi and the BJP, with reports suggesting
that Ms Jayalalithaa has ordered her party to refrain from speaking out against
the man who fancies his chance at being the next prime minister.
"This Congress
government - those looters - must be overthrown!" the 66-year-old
Jayalalithaa - who is usually referred to by her fans simply as Amma - told
thousands of cheering supporters at her election rally across Tamil Nadu and
Puducherry.
If Ms Jayalalithaa is the
queen of the south, Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress rule the roost
in West Bengal and its capital Kolkata. Her
decision to pull her 18 lawmakers out of the national coalition in 2012 over
cuts in fuel subsidies left the Congress-led government reeling.
This time round, Trinamool's
share of West Bengal's 42 seats is expected to
be closer to 30, which will give her considerable bargaining power in coalition
talks. Analysts say it is hard to guess which way Didi will jump after results
on May 16.
For all her castigation of
the Congress, she has also lashed out at the BJP, aware that Bengal's
many Muslim voters are wary of Mr Modi.
Ms Mayawati or
"Behenji," whose Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has 21 seats in the
current Lok Sabha, says India
will be "ruined" if Mr Modi comes to power. But she has previously
cut a deal with the BJP which enabled her to be chief minister of Uttar
Pradesh.
N. Sathiya Moorthy, a
Chennai-based analyst at the Observer Research Foundation, said the three women
have much in common. He said that, definitely their image, their fighting
spirit, their charisma, and their administrative skills to a great extent, have
left them in good stead across the board when it comes to voting.
Subhash Agrawal, a
Delhi-based analyst, said Mr. Modi will have to reach out to them with even the
most generous projections putting the BJP several dozen seats short of a
majority in the 543-seat parliament.
Ms. Jayalalithaa has made no
secret of her own interest in being prime minister. Although such a scenario is
seen as unlikely, the former actress could still make a decisive intervention
on the national stage in return for senior cabinet posts or legislation that
will benefit her core. Agarwal said that, Jayalalithaa probably got the most friendly
disposition towards the BJP and Modi. He added that, Jayalalithaa could be very
instrumental.
