Modi: Gujarat Vs Delhi

In the real world of contemporary India, Narendra Modi has just mastered a powerful magical spell and, abracadabra, conquered Gujarat thrice! It was a battle where the Congress tactically chose to be low-key and where its leaders chose not to utter his name. Now it seems that Modi has the media quite spellbound by the possible tale of how he could conquer India next. The middle classes, it says, are quite in thrall of the possibility of the strong leader emerging in an age of drift. The young, they say, see him as dynamic. The women of Gujarat, they say, are quite enamoured of this big, strong man. Why, statistics have been reeled out to show that even the Muslim community is taking the first steps to join this age of enlightenment set to dawn upon us.
Because of the extraordinary baggage he carries, Modi needed to not just match his 2007 performance of 117, but better it. He fell two short (soon he will cross this, as by-eelctions for 3 MLAs seats will come up; 1 MLA belonging to Congress died and 2 MLAs from Congress are already MPs), or rather well short of the more bullish projections. Still, he has won thrice. Till December 20, 2012, he was the Lord of Hype whose loyal followers fought for him on internet forums, media and hyper media, a creature of 3-D technology. Now, Modi has made fiction a reality and will make a bid for national prominence. As his ambitions propel him forward, he will force us to question assumptions about India. He has already challenged many earlier ones, broken many rules, smashed all opposition in his path, and prevailed.

What Worked For Modi In Gujarat

• Image of a strong, hands-on, action-oriented leader with a proven track record
• Average Gujarati’s belief that they were electing a future prime minister
• 25 lakh first-time voters born after 1991 who have never seen Congress rule
• Creation of 22 urban, semi-urban clusters due to delimitation of constituencies
• Record turnouts in both phases of elections snuffing out losses in rural areas
• Relentless online, offline and on-air projection of “development agenda”
• Strong support from business houses who are invested in the idea of Gujarat
• Growing backing of Muslims for BJP, even in psychologically important Godhra
• Congress reluctance to tackle ghosts of 2002, firing from shoulders of activists
• Division of anti-BJP votes, with Keshubhai Patel’s GPP entering the fray

What Might Not Work In New Delhi

• Reservations in RSS about the man who has cut VHP, Bajrang Dal down to size
• An OBC leader in a Sangh brotherhood dominated by Brahmins and upper castes
• L.K. Advani said to be still eyeing the top spot should it be available in 2014
• Advani’s acolytes—the famous Delhi 6—said to be not too enamoured of Modi
• Unapologetic persona with not a single Muslim candidate despite 2002
• In era of coalition politics, Modi’s ability to work with NDA allies under question
• In a cadre-based party, the rise of a “cult figure” discomfits many in BJP, NDA
• Projection of Modi as face of BJP might polarise and galvanise Congress voters
• Indian middle-class aspirations different from that of Gujarati middle class
• Modi’s appeal outside Gujarat unclear; BJP lost Himachal despite his campaign.