The Congress party’s 0-4
mauling and BJP’s triumph in three states in what was billed as the “semifinal”
for the 2014 elections was the big headline, but the central takeaway on super
Sunday (Dec 08, 2013) was Aam Aadmi Party’s stunning debut in Delhi, prising open space in
national politics for an outsider.
Congress’s debacle exposed
its sliding popularity and Rahul Gandhi’s failure to connect with the voters. It
has also fortified the perception of Narendra Modi-led BJP being the
frontrunner for 2014. For all practical purposes, the UPA government will now be
a lame duck one.
The BJP won a three-fourth
majority in Rajasthan, scored a two-third victory in Madhya Pradesh and beat
back Congress in Chhattisgarh after a ding-dong battle. In Delhi , only AAP prevented BJP from a clear
victory, but its tally of 31 still underscored its advantage over Congress
which crumbled to a measly eight seats.
The clear man of the match
was AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal. He not only beat Sheila Dikshit by a margin of over 25,000
votes, his party fed off a deep disillusionment with the political class, boosting
hopes of a new brand of politics, perhaps a desi version of the Arab Spring.
As a result, the spunky
rookie subverted traditional assumptions about vote banks by drawing support
from diverse socio-economic strata. AAP finished second to BJP, but the victory
of its greenhorns over Congress and BJP heavyweights was reminiscent of the
waves of 1977 and 1984, a feat that would encourage it to go beyond Delhi in 2014.
Predictably, there was a
debate over how much the Modi factor impacted the BJP landslides in Rajasthan
and MP and in Chhattisgarh.
Party insiders insisted Modi
was a strong force multiplier and that in Delhi ,
he helped it emerge as the single-largest party.
Whatever the case, the result
can only add to Modi’s aura and provide BJP tailwind as it heads for the LS
challenge. The fact that Congress succumbed to incumbency and crashed to
humiliating defeats in Rajasthan and Delhi
whereas BJP held its own in MP and Chhattisgarh would be cited to argue that
something beyond “local issues” was in play here.
Both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul
Gandhi acknowledged the role of larger factors in Congress defeats. But they
said Gehlot’s and Dikshit’s losses were baffling, given their good governance
records.
Sonia spoke of inflation, one
of the many issues that Modi will exploit in 2014 when he, with his tantalizing
promise of a decisive leader and much-trumpeted Gujarat model of development, will
be in the fray himself, seeking to tap into the same yearning for change which
helped Kejriwal in Delhi .
Rahul Gandhi acknowledged
that there was a lesson in AAP’s dramatic debut and said “aggressive changes”
would now be carried out in the Congress to “embed” the common man in Congress
programmes.
While the 2014 Lok Sabha
election may be shaped by things happening in the interregnum, on Sunday things
looked dim for Congress and UPA. Of course, it will linger on as long as it can
and there will be posturing on issues like the communal violence bill, but the
defeats have sapped its authority.
JD(U)’s denial, though
unconvincing, that it never planned to team up with Congress, also pointed to
the problem that the weakened party may face in attracting allies.
Coming at a time when
Congress’s southern base --the reason why it won two straight victories -- is
in tatters, Sunday’s results read with its unspectacular performances in UP and
Gujarat, will strengthen the impression that it is likely to finish behind the
BJP in the 2014 polls.
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