By coming down
heavily both on the Congress and the BJP on the ground that they were
completely against the interests of Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister and AIADMK
general secretary Jayalalithaa has indicated that she might maintain
equidistance from the two national parties in the next Lok Sabha polls.
She wants a central
regime that would have an ear for Tamil Nadu and argues that such a government
can be installed only if the AIADMK sweeps the Lok Sabha polls and bags all the
39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone one in Puducherry.
Her speech at a mass
wedding of 65 couples echoed similar remarks she had made last year, exhorting
her cadre to work for a total sweep. Her stand may mean that she is unlikely to
encourage one of the national parties, in contrast to her earlier invitations
to the Congress in 2009 to dump the DMK and join hands with her. But it failed
to fructify.
Later, she asked the
Congress to jettison the DMK from the UPA in the wake of 2G scam and offered to
compensate for the consequent loss of numbers in the Lok Sabha. This also cut
no ice with the Congress.
Even though she is
quite close to BJP and its probable Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi,
Ms. Jayalalithaa is fully aware that an alliance with the BJP, which has no
strong base in the State, is unlikely to benefit her party. On the contrary, it
may only result in losing the backing of the minorities. She had won back their
support after alienating them through the anti-conversion bill of her previous
regime. But what is not clear is whether she can win the elections on her own
since the dynamics of Lok Sabha elections totally differ from the contours of
the Assembly poll scene. It is also not sure whether her projection of the
AIADMK as an alternative to both the Congress and the BJP would translate into
votes if she fails to identify a combination that will come to power. Further,
the possibility of the DMK piecing together an alliance could make going it
alone a risk for her.
The DMK-Congress
combination has survived many a crisis in the recent past, and it may hold good
for the next election too. Political sources say the Congress is in touch with
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), led by actor Vijayakant, and hopes to
rope in the party into their alliance.
While Mr. Vijayakant
is no great admirer of the DMK, the AIADMK’s attitude towards the party may get
him to reconsider his decision. In such an eventuality, the AIADMK may be
forced to ponder whether it can go it alone.
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- Follow Mr. Modi and show the physical progress in all fronts. That is the manthra for winning all 40 seats. Voters are fed up with alliances. They want good governance.
- AIADMK says it will not have any relation with BJP or with the congress. DMK wants the congress and DMDK. Rahul does not want to have any alliance with the DMK but wants the DMDK .PMK is like a prodigal son. MDMK is cautious. It can ally either with the DMK or with the AIADMK. The communists would like to ally with the AIADMK. It would be better if all the parties’ re- group under three fronts. One led by AIADMK plus the communists and few castes based groups. The second one led by the DMK, MDMK and few splinter groups. The third alliance led by the Congress or by the DMDK. PMK will have to cross over to AIDMK or stand alone. If there are three alliances, the AAIDMK alliance would get 22 seats, DMK alliance would get 12 seats and the congress and the DMDK alliance would get 6 seats. On the other hand, if there are two alliances depending upon the alliance parties, 40 seats will be shared. In any event AAIDMK can hope to get a minimum of 12 seats to a maximum of 22 seats.
- In
general TN people are addicted to caste, communals, freebies and liquors. So
whatever the development a government does, it is not matter for them. They will
be changing the government once in 5 years. The main success of
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