Congress and DMDK set to go hand in hand?

Though AICC vice-president Mr. Rahul Gandhi greeting Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) founder Mr. Vijayakant on his birthday [Aug 25, 2013] is seen as an important development, Congress leaders in the State refuse to read more into it, saying the situation is still in a flux to talk about alliance.

An AICC secretary from the State said that, today, in Tamil Nadu, both the Congress and the DMK are almost in the same position. While the DMDK, which has consolidated anti-Dravidian forces to certain extent, has succeeded in establishing itself as a force to reckon with, the Congress could not do it because it never capitalised the anti-Dravidian sentiments in the State.

Besides Mr. Rahul Gandhi, AICC general secretary Mukul Wasnik, TNCC president B.S. Gnanadesikan, Union Ministers G.K. Vasan and E.M. Sudarsan Natchiappan were among those who wished the DMDK leader on his birthday.

The Congress secretary said Mr. Gandhi and Vijayakant established contacts after the DMDK sought the support of the Congress for its candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls. But, finally, Congress decided to support DMK candidate Ms. Kanimozhi. This goes to prove that our party would rely on either of the Dravidian parties when it comes to Lok Sabha polls.

Another Congress leader dismissed the argument that Mr. Rahul Gandhi’s birthday message to Mr. Vijayakant assumed significance because he never greeted DMK president M. Karunanidhi or called on him during his visit to Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that on the occasion of Mr. Karunanidhi’s birthday, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh greeted him every time.

Despite displaying themselves as friendly towards the DMDK, the Congress leaders say it is “too early” to come to the conclusion on the alliance as it is not clear whether Mr. Vijayakant would agree to be a constituent of the front that includes the DMK.

          Congress sources said that, they want to form a broad alliance. But, also feel enthused by the Congress’ performance in the Lok Sabha by-elections in Karnataka and the changed attitude of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa towards the Food Security Bill. Though there are ifs and buts in her stand, this is for the first time that she is seen to be favourably disposed towards Congress party.

Modi attacks Congress; praises Jaya and Naidu

Gujarat Chief Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched the Bharatiya Janata Party's election campaign in south India by reaching out to the Telugu Desam Party for an alliance as he appealed to all non-Congress parties to come together to put an end to "dynastic rule" of the Congress in India. Invoking the legacy of TDP founder Mr. NT Rama Rao, the veteran leader addressing his first rally as BJP's chief poll campaign manager, said the TDP has a huge responsibility of fulfilling NTR's dreams.

He said that, he is in Andhra Pradesh and want to remember NTR. He gave fillip to anti-Congress politics. His dream was not just a prosperous Telugu state, but a liberated India. The best homage paid to him would be to unite non-Congress forces and liberate India from Congress rule.

It is up to the TDP to carry NTR's legacy forward. They have to realise their responsibility in this regard, he said to thunderous applause from the thousands, who had gathered at Hyderbad's Lal Bahadur Shastri stadium from early morning. The TDP was part of the BJP-led NDA alliance from 1998 to 2004, before the Chandrababu Naidu-led party severed ties following the defeat in Lok Sabha elections.

During his speech, Modi came down heavily on the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh for its failure to create jobs for the youth, and called upon the state government to emulate Jayalalithaa's Tamil Nadu as a role model in skill development.

He said, if you don't want to appreciate Gujarat model, it is fine. But look at how Jayalalithaa has created jobs through skill development in your neighboring state. Learn from her example, with some analysts describing it as an example of growing bonhomie between the AIADMK and the BJP leading up to next year's elections.

Attacking the Congress, Modi said hot anti-Congress winds were blowing across the country as people were fed up with growing corruption and misrule. He said, corruption has become all pervasive in the UPA rule. And people want to see good governance that can be achieved only by getting rid of the Congress. He added that, he’s confident that Andhra Pradesh's political parties will bring a non-Congress government and end this dynastic rule.

Praising his senior party colleague L K Advani's fight for bringing back money stashed in foreign banks, he lambasted the UPA government for its failure to act on it. He ridiculed the government's monitory policy, and said when India got freedom in 1947, one rupee was equal to one dollar, but now a dollar is equal to the age of the finance minister.

Chanting his pet mantra 'India First,' Modi said, if the BJP comes to power, the holy book of the government would be 'the Constitution of India'. However, coming with a mixed agenda and multiple issues, Modi looked to have let down the youth, with many saying that he highlighted the problems, but did not have any solution to offer.

While addressing the most sensitive issue of AP division, Modi resorted to woo both the regions of Telangana and Seemandhra, as the Congress had taken the sail out of the BJP winds by announcing formation of Telangana last month. His chants of 'Jai Telangana' and 'Jai Seemandhra' together failed to cut ice, many experts said at a time when the mood among Andhraties and people from Telangana are not at its best.

          He said, the Congress is not sincere on the issue. They say they would build a new capital for Seemandhra in 10 years' time. If they had been sincere, they would have started building the capital in 2004 when they committed Telangana. He added that for the BJP, Seemandhra was as important as Telangana. "And I hope both states will do even better than Gujarat," he said.

Slamming the Congress for creating rift between Telangana and Seemandhra, Modi said the ruling party had done great injustice to the state at the cost of its development.

"The Congress creating divide among people, as its policy is divisive," he lamented. And he prescribed development as the panacea for the problem. "Development is the only solution for all the problems and miseries," he said. He signed off by doing a Barack Obama as he chanted 'Yes We Can, Yes We Will Do" and asked the crowd to repeat.

2013 Election Tracker Survey: most imp issue for 2014

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Final Tally

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Vote Share
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Race for PM??
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA 2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey: General

2013 Election Tracker Survey: performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Final Tally

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Vote Share
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Most important issue for election
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Race for PM??
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA 2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt
2013 Election Tracker Survey (General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: vote shares

Coming to the big numbers, the survey shows that the BJP-led NDA is clearly on the upswing with the Congress and its allies taking a big hit. While the Congress is likely to see its vote share drop to 28 per cent in July 2013 from 29 in 2009, it allies are the bigger losers and will see a drop by seven per cent in their vote share from eight per cent in 2009.

On the other hand the BJP will get eight per cent more votes than the party got in 2009. If elections are held in July 2013 then the BJP will get 27 per cent votes against just 19 per cent that the party bagged in 2009. But its allies are not on an easy wicket and will see a three percentage drop to just two per cent in 2013. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stays at six per cent while the Samajwadi Party (SP) will gain one per cent to climb to four in July 2013 with the Left Front coming down to six from eight per cent votes in 2009.

So the UPA is likely to get 29 per cent of votes in July 2013 compared to 36 in 2009 while the NDA jumps to 29 from 24 per cent in 2009. The other parties gain two per cent and will get 42 per cent of the votes now.

Based on the vote share, the seat projection does not present a very rosy picture for the UPA. If the Lok Sabha election is held in July 2013, then the UPA will win 149-157 seats, the NDA 172-180, BSP 15-19, the Left Front 22-28 and the Samajwadi Party 17-21. The other smaller parties, who could prove to be very crucial in the next government formation, could end up with a huge bloc of 147-155 seats.

In the UPA, the Congress will bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could bring another 13-19 MPs.

Regional parties who will in all probability play a crucial role in the next government's formation are likely to come up with a huge contingent of MPs. The Trinamool Congress will win 23-27 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 16-20, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) 15-19, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 12-16, YSR Congress 11-15, Rashtriya Janata Dal 8-12, Telugu Desam Party 6-10 and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi 5-9 seats.

The Congress is down or barely holding on to categories among whom it had gained and done well in 2009 and gained further in 2011 while the BJP's recovery among its traditional voters among whom it had lost support in 2009, continues.

Overall, across the country and across all regions, there is a fairly high anti-incumbency against the UPA government with satisfaction with performance of BJP MPs greater than with that of Congress MPs. Another major plus for the BJP is that the party is seen as winning by most people in all regions except for South India.

When people were asked which party was likely to win in the next Lok Sabha elections from your constituency, 21 per cent said BJP and 18 per cent took Congress's name. The gap between the BJP and Congress on this question is widest in Central India.

Overall, Congress is viewed by the people as being slightly better than the BJP on the issue of good leadership, running a coalition government at the Centre and for maintaining religious harmony. The BJP on the other hand is seen as being better than the Congress for providing good governance, curbing corruption, handling economic crises and countering terrorism. On the issue of corruption, a large proportion of the respondents also felt that both parties are incapable of curbing it.

When people were asked what will be the single most important issue for them when they vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, 12 per cent gave answers related to development and economy, 11 per cent said price rise and 10 per cent gave responses related to governance. Nine per cent said leadership will be the main issue. Corruption as an issue was mentioned by just 6 per cent of the respondents. But the responses of the people vary from region to region. The main issue in North and West India seems to be price rise whereas in South India it is governance. In Central India it is leadership and in East India it is development.

Across socio-economic categories, development and price rise seem to be the most important voting issues for the people. Among housewives, price rise is the biggest issue at 15 per cent. Among the poor, young voters and Muslims development is a big issue apart from price rise. (Most important issue for 2014 election)

 In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey (General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Final Tally
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Most important issue for election
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Race for PM??
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA

But the UPA government has a lot to worry too as the survey shows that those satisfied with its performance falling from 49 per cent in 2011 to 38 per cent now. The dissatisfaction level has gone up from 31 per cent in 2011 to 40 per cent in 2013. The dissatisfaction level with the UPA is spread across the country - metros (40 per cent), towns (42 per cent) and rural areas (39 per cent).

According to the survey, under the UPA regime 81 per cent say prices have risen, 69 per cent say corruption has increased, 51 per cent say terrorism is up while 45 per cent say that the rich-poor divide has increased.

In Pictures:-

 

See Also:-
2013 Election Tracker Survey(General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Final Tally
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Vote Share
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Most important issue for election
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Race for PM??
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2103 Election Tracker Survey: Race for next PM

The Election Tracker survey reveals that Modi with 19 per cent of the votes is ahead in the prime minister's race followed by Rahul Gandhi with 12 per cent, Manmohan Singh (6 per cent), Sonia Gandhi (5 per cent), Mayawati (3 per cent) and BJP patriarch LK Advani (2 per cent). The figures are a major turnaround from 2009 when Modi had the support of just 2 per cent of the voters with Manmohan Singh leading with 18 per cent. Advani (15 per cent), Sonia Gandhi (16 per cent), Rahul (6 per cent) and Mayawati (5 per cent) were all much ahead of the Gujarat Chief Minister.

In the race between Modi and Rahul, the former is ahead with 33 per cent votes compared to 31 per cent for the Congress leader. Modi is more popular than Rahul in North India (37 per cent vs 29 per cent), Central India (41 per cent vs 33 per cent), West India (43 per cent vs 33 per cent) and East India (34 per cent vs 30 per cent).

But Rahul with 37 per cent leads Modi, who has 17 per cent of the votes, in South India. Rahul (45 per cent) is also more popular that Modi (18 per cent) amongst Muslim voters. Sixty-six per cent Congress supporters want Rahul to be projected as the prime ministerial candidate while 79 per cent BJP supporters want Modi to be projected for the post.

While current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is considered to be an honest leader by 25 per cent of those surveyed, 14 per cent say he has little control over decisions and nine per cent say that he has allowed corruption to flourish. The satisfaction level with his regime has fallen to 49 per cent in July 2013 from 56 per cent two years ago. There is a sliver lining too with Manmohan still the most liked among top leaders with 63 per cent votes followed by Rahul Gandhi (56 per cent) and Modi (54 per cent).

In Pictures:-

See Also:-
2013 Election Tracker Survey (General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Final Tally
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Vote Share
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Most important issue for election
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election tracker Survey: Final Tally

With the next Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in early 2014, the parties have started to fine tune their strategies for the same. While the two big political formations - the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - are trying to come out with a comprehensive election strategy, the CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu Election Tracker survey shows that the 2014 Lok Sabha election is going to throw up a fractured mandate with neither of two coming anywhere close to the half-way mark of 272 in the 545-member Lok Sabha which has two nominated members.

The smaller battle to become the next prime minister of India too is being hotly contested and could have a major bearing on who gets to rule India after the election. With a section of the Congress leadership keen on projecting party Vice President Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate, the BJP is banking on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been elevated as the party's election campaign committee chief, on delivering the goods and taking it to power after a decade in the opposition.

Modi's elevation has already stirred a controversy with his critics and rivals alleging that his inaction during the 2002 riots in Gujarat show that he is not capable to be the prime minister of a diversified and pluralistic country like India. But the Gujarat Chief Minister's supporters point to the pace of development in the state to claim that only he can ensure that India becomes an economic superpower.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey (General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Expected Vote Share
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Most important issue for election
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Race for PM??
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of State Governments
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Awareness of UPA schemes

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Narendra Modi for PM?
2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-BJP, non-Cong
2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Uttar Pradesh

In the politically most crucial state of India, the present Akhilesh Yadav government has got a lot of negative reviews. Akhilesh, who led the Samajwadi Party to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, is not seen as an efficient administrator. On almost all the major governance indicators, the votes of Uttar Pradesh have given him a thumbs down. Akhilesh's father Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a better Chief Minister by 53 per cent of the voters. Even among the Samajwadi Party supporters, Mulayam gets 67 per cent votes as compared to 20 per cent votes for his son. After more than a decade, the BJP is coming back strongly in Uttar Pradesh with 28 per cent saying that the party is the best to govern the state. The BSP is seen the best party to govern by 19 per cent, the SP by 16 per cent and the Congress by just 13 per cent. In what can serve as a game changer in the national politics, the BJP has increased its vote share to 27 per cent against the 18 per cent in 2009. The vote share of the ruling SP and the BSP has decreased by 1 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Another party which might see a downfall is the Congress. The survey shows the vote share of Congress has gone down to 16 per cent from 18 per cent in 2009. In terms of seats too, the BJP is way ahead of the SP, the BSP and the Congress. While the BJP is estimated to win 29-33 seats, the SP might bag 17-21 followed by the BSP which could get 14-18 and the Congress which might grab just 11-15 seats.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Madhya Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (in General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Madhya Pradesh

In the state of Madhya Pradesh, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government has ensured that the BJP continues to not only remain the dominant political force but also consolidates its position. When it comes to the race for the Prime Minister of India, Chouhan is way ahead of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in Madhya Pradesh. In Madhya Pradesh, 49 per cent want Chouhan to be the next Prime Minister of India while Modi gets the backing of just 28 per cent voters. 

The satisfaction level with the Chouhan government has risen to 82 per cent in 2013 from 75 per cent in 2011. The BJP has increased its vote share also by 7 per cent since the 2009 elections. The party will get 50 per cent of the votes if elections are held in June 2013, whereas the Congress has flipped badly and will get only 32 per cent votes against 40 per cent in 2009. The BSP will get only 6 per cent of the votes. The huge difference in the vote share of the BJP and the Congress has ensured that the state remains a saffron citadel. The BJP is likely to win 21-25 seats with the Congress facing a rout with just 2-6 seats.

In Pictures:-

Performance of Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (in General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Rajasthan

In Rajasthan, 35 per cent prefer the previous government of BJP's Vasundhara Raje over Congress's Ashok Gehlot. The Rajasthan Chief Minister has been unable to take the advantage of the increase in the satisfaction level with his government. The survey shows that 58 per cent of the voters were satisfied with Gehlot in 2011 and in 2013 the satisfaction level has gone up to 65 per cent. The dissatisfaction level has come down to 23 per cent from 26 per cent ion 2011. In terms of votes, the Congress is likely to get 44 per cent down from 47 per cent in 2009, whereas the BJP has increased its vote share by 7 per cent and will get 44 per cent as compared to 37 per cent in 2009. Just like the vote percentage, in terms of seats too it is a dead hit between the two parties with both parties likely to win 10-14 seats each.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Madhya Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (in General)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Andhra Pradesh

The situation in Andhra Pradesh is much more complex with the Congress clearly on a downhill but no other party seems to be capable of having a pan-state appeal. Telangana issue remains very important with 55 per cent saying the stand on the issue of the separate state will affect their decision of whom to vote for. Jagan Mohan is the clear winner at 25 per cent votes for leading Andhra and 29 per cent feel that he is being falsely implicated while 34 per cent feel he is corrupt.

The Congress vote share has seen a seven per cent decline in vote share. The party will get the support of 32 per cent voters in 2013 compared to 39 in 2009. The BJP will have seven per cent voters backing it as against only four per cent during the last Lok Sabha elections. The YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan, which did not exist in 2009, will bag 20 votes while the Telugu Desam Party of Chandababu Naidu has also seen an eight percentage fall to 17 from 25 per cent in 2009. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi is the other big gainer and the party's vote share will swell to 13 per cent from six during the 2009 polls.

Andhra had virtually ensured in 2009 that the Congress-led UPA would come back to power but in 2013 the state is all set to give a huge shock to the ruling alliance. The Congress is likely to see its tally drop from 33 seats to anything between 11 and 15 while Jagan Mohan's party will also win 11-15 seats.

The TDP, which has six MPs in the current Lok Sabha, may win 6-10 seats. The TRS will see its tally jump to 5-9 seats from two at present. Other smaller parties are likely to bag 0-4 seats.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Madhya Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (in General)