Tamil Nadu poll tracker: AIADMK may win 15-23, DMK 7-13, Congress 1-5

Tamil Nadu is unlikely to throw up any surprises this time where Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa-led ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) looks stronger and is expected to maintain its lead in the Lok Sabha elections. While the AIADMK is expected to win 15-23, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 7-13, Congress 1-5 and others may bag 4-10 seats according to the projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.

The AIADMK is likely to garner 27 per cent of the votes in a multi-corner contest in the state according to the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll. The DMK, which got 25 per cent of the votes in 2009, is expected to get just 18 per cent of the votes.

Surprisingly the BJP, which polled a mere 2 per cent votes in 2009 is likely to get an impressive 16 per cent votes this time. The Congress is likely to get 17 per cent votes.

Actor Vijayakanth-led DMDK, which is the official opposition party in the state assembly is expected to lose badly by getting just 3 per cent votes. DMK, Congress and BJP are wooing the DMDK for an alliance.

The AAP is likely to get 3 per cent votes in the state. Other sub-regional parties in the state PMK, VCK, Left and others are expected to get 1 per cent to 3 per cent votes.

AIADMK is still better

According to the poll tracker findings, overall 35 per cent feel that AIADMK government is better than the previous DMK government while 24 per cent respondents feel that DMK is better than the AIADMK. Jayalalithaa is more popular in rural Tamil Nadu than in urban regions of the state. A total of 43 per cent voters back her in rural TN as against 27 per cent in urban TN.

There is a high support for BJP-AIADMK alliance among the voters of both the parties while DMK-Congress alliance also has same support.

Overall 34 per cent support a BJP-AIADMK alliance and the DMK-Congress alliance has 27 per cent backing.

The AIADMK is seen as a party best suited to deal with problems of both fishermen and farmers of the state by most respondents. While 23 per cent people say it is the best suited to deal with problems of fishermen, 24 per cent feel that it is best suited to deal with the problems of farmers.

However, the satisfaction with the AIADMK government's work is declining in many parts of the state and 60 per cent of the respondents say they are happy while 30 per they are unhappy with Jayalalithaa. Like some other states, Jayalalithaa is more popular than her party with 64 per cent voters saying that she is good. Only 26 per cent feel that they are not happy with her.

Modi leads PM race, BJP growing

The most interesting finding of the survey is the growing popularity of the BJP in Tamil Nadu. In a Dravidian state like Tamil Nadu, the BJP was seen as a north Indian, Hindi party.

But its popularity is growing across the state and 17 per cent respondents back Narendra Modi for the PM as against just 8 per cent for Jayalalithaa. Modi's popularity nearly doubled in the last six months in the state. Rahul Gandhi has 11 per cent backing and M Karunanidhi has just 1 per cent backing for the post of PM.

The BJP voters are opposed to the idea of AIADMK projecting Jayalalithaa as its PM candidate. Among the BJP and AIADMK voters, 27 per cent back Jaya for the post of PM, 36 per cent say they are opposed to it.

One more good news for Jayalalithaa is that voters continue to have faith in her government. In the event of an assembly polls, most people want the Jayalalithaa government to continue in power as 45 per cent respondents feel that, she should continue to rule the state.

Like many other states, the UPA is unpopular even in Tamil Nadu. Just 32 per cent are satisfied with the performance of the UPA at the Centre and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is 1 per cent more popular than his government.

AAP impact:- Just 47 per cent respondents have heard of the AAP. Among them 22 per cent want the AAP to contest from their seats while only 10 per cent are inclined to vote for the party.

TAMIL NADU
Seat Projection (Seats: 39)
Party / Front	Projected Seats
AIADMK	15-23
DMK	7-13
INC	1-5
Others	4-10

Projected Vote Share if LS elections are held now (Jan 2014)
Party	2009 Actual	July 2013 Estimated	Jan 2014 Estimated
INC	15	18	17
BJP	2	10	16
DMK	25	16	18
AIADMK	23	26	27
PMK	6	5	1
DMDK	10	7	3
VCK	2	2	2
Left	5	5	3
AAP	---	---	3
Others	12	11	10