Coming to the big numbers, the
survey shows that the BJP-led NDA is clearly on the upswing with the Congress
and its allies taking a big hit. While the Congress is likely to see its vote
share drop to 28 per cent in July 2013 from 29 in 2009, it allies are the
bigger losers and will see a drop by seven per cent in their vote share from
eight per cent in 2009.
On the other hand the BJP
will get eight per cent more votes than the party got in 2009. If elections are
held in July 2013 then the BJP will get 27 per cent votes against just 19 per
cent that the party bagged in 2009. But its allies are not on an easy wicket
and will see a three percentage drop to just two per cent in 2013. The Bahujan
Samaj Party (BSP) stays at six per cent while the Samajwadi Party (SP) will
gain one per cent to climb to four in July 2013 with the Left Front coming down
to six from eight per cent votes in 2009.
So the UPA is likely to get 29
per cent of votes in July 2013 compared to 36 in 2009 while the NDA jumps to 29
from 24 per cent in 2009. The other parties gain two per cent and will get 42
per cent of the votes now.
Based on the vote share, the
seat projection does not present a very rosy picture for the UPA. If the Lok
Sabha election is held in July 2013, then the UPA will win 149-157 seats, the
NDA 172-180, BSP 15-19, the Left Front 22-28 and the Samajwadi Party 17-21. The
other smaller parties, who could prove to be very crucial in the next
government formation, could end up with a huge bloc of 147-155 seats.
In the UPA, the Congress will
bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost
a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better
than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could
bring another 13-19 MPs.
Regional parties who will in
all probability play a crucial role in the next government's formation are
likely to come up with a huge contingent of MPs. The Trinamool Congress will
win 23-27 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 16-20, Nitish
Kumar's Janata Dal (United) 15-19, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 12-16, YSR Congress 11-15,
Rashtriya Janata Dal 8-12, Telugu Desam Party 6-10 and the Telangana Rashtra
Samithi 5-9 seats.
The Congress is down or
barely holding on to categories among whom it had gained and done well in 2009
and gained further in 2011 while the BJP's recovery among its traditional
voters among whom it had lost support in 2009, continues.
Overall, across the country
and across all regions, there is a fairly high anti-incumbency against the UPA
government with satisfaction with performance of BJP MPs greater than with that
of Congress MPs. Another major plus for the BJP is that the party is seen as
winning by most people in all regions except for South India.
When people were asked which
party was likely to win in the next Lok Sabha elections from your constituency,
21 per cent said BJP and 18 per cent took Congress's name. The gap between the
BJP and Congress on this question is widest in Central
India.
Overall, Congress is viewed
by the people as being slightly better than the BJP on the issue of good
leadership, running a coalition government at the Centre and for maintaining
religious harmony. The BJP on the other hand is seen as being better than the Congress
for providing good governance, curbing corruption, handling economic crises and
countering terrorism. On the issue of corruption, a large proportion of the
respondents also felt that both parties are incapable of curbing it.
When people were asked what
will be the single most important issue for them when they vote in the 2014 Lok
Sabha election, 12 per cent gave answers related to development and economy, 11
per cent said price rise and 10 per cent gave responses related to governance. Nine
per cent said leadership will be the main issue. Corruption as an issue was
mentioned by just 6 per cent of the respondents. But the responses of the
people vary from region to region. The main issue in North and West India seems
to be price rise whereas in South India it is
governance. In Central India it is leadership and in East
India it is development.
Across socio-economic
categories, development and price rise seem to be the most important voting
issues for the people. Among housewives, price rise is the biggest issue at 15 per
cent. Among the poor, young voters and Muslims development is a big issue apart
from price rise. (Most important issue for 2014 election)
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