Showing posts with label SP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SP. Show all posts

Friday, July 26, 2013

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Uttar Pradesh

In the politically most crucial state of India, the present Akhilesh Yadav government has got a lot of negative reviews. Akhilesh, who led the Samajwadi Party to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, is not seen as an efficient administrator. On almost all the major governance indicators, the votes of Uttar Pradesh have given him a thumbs down. Akhilesh's father Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a better Chief Minister by 53 per cent of the voters. Even among the Samajwadi Party supporters, Mulayam gets 67 per cent votes as compared to 20 per cent votes for his son. After more than a decade, the BJP is coming back strongly in Uttar Pradesh with 28 per cent saying that the party is the best to govern the state. The BSP is seen the best party to govern by 19 per cent, the SP by 16 per cent and the Congress by just 13 per cent. In what can serve as a game changer in the national politics, the BJP has increased its vote share to 27 per cent against the 18 per cent in 2009. The vote share of the ruling SP and the BSP has decreased by 1 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Another party which might see a downfall is the Congress. The survey shows the vote share of Congress has gone down to 16 per cent from 18 per cent in 2009. In terms of seats too, the BJP is way ahead of the SP, the BSP and the Congress. While the BJP is estimated to win 29-33 seats, the SP might bag 17-21 followed by the BSP which could get 14-18 and the Congress which might grab just 11-15 seats.

In Pictures:-














Monday, July 15, 2013

Parties gear up for poll campaigns

Rs. 2,000 crore. That’s what the Congress, the BJP and other national and regional political parties will spend on advertising in the run-up to assembly elections later this year and ahead of the general elections scheduled for 2014.
The Congress and the BJP have reportedly lined up budgets of about Rs.500 crore each, while regional parties such as DMK, AIADMK, SP, BJP, JD(U), TDP and others are expected to spend another Rs.1,000 crore.

Leading agencies such as Rediffusion Y&R, JWT, Crayon, Percept/H, Grey Group, Dentsu India and Madison World have pitched for the Congress and BJP contracts and have already made their first round of presentations. The parties are expected to award contracts to the selected agencies by September.



Related Links:-

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Opposition demands JPC Chairman P C Chacko's removal


Opposition and DMK members of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on 2G demanded the ouster of chairperson P.C. Chacko for being “highly partisan” and asked Speaker Meira Kumar to replace him with a new chief. The 15 Joint Parliamentary Committee members belonging to BJP, JD(U), AIADMK, DMK, Left parties, TMC, and BJD met the Speaker and expressed “no-confidence” in Mr. Chacko on grounds of “highly partisan, unfair and prejudicial” conduct as also leakage of the draft report. The JPC has 30 members, including Mr. Chacko.
Congress, NCP, BSP and SP are supporting the chairperson. Though SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has said prime accused A. Raja should have been called by the JPC as he wanted to depose, the party does not wish to go to the extent of seeking Mr. Chacko’s removal.
Amid opposition plans to corner the JPC Chairman over clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the much-talked about meeting of the panel to adopt the draft report was today postponed following death of a Lok Sabha member.
Mr. Chacko said that the new date would be announced indicating that it would be possible only next week as some members have expressed “inconvenience” if it is held on April 26, 2013.
The NDA members submitted one letter to the Speaker against Chacko while the other parties gave separate letters. In the letters — which were formulated by these parties in consultation with each other — the members expressed their anger at the manner in which Mr. Chacko conducted the proceedings. His behaviour has been “unfair, prejudicial and unbecoming of the post to which he was appointed”, the letters said.
Members alleged that Mr. Chacko has failed in his duty to lead the JPC to bring out the truth. “Instead he has used the JPC to conceal and subvert the truth,” the members said. They also alleged that the report was leaked to the media before they were given copies. Expressing “no-confidence” in Mr. Chacko, these members urged Ms. Meira Kumar to immediately replace him. The 15 members later said Ms. Kumar promised that she will look into their demand.
This action from the non-Congress members was precipitated due to the cancellation of April 25, 2013’s JPC meeting — due to the death of TMC MP Ambika Banerjee — in which the report was to be adopted. They had earlier planned to press for a vote on the draft report at Thursday’s JPC meeting. The draft report has given a clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.
CPI(M) to submit dissent note:- Meanwhile, CPI(M) said it would submit a note of dissent on the JPC report on 2G scam, saying the draft report prepared by its chairperson P.C. Chacko was “biased."
          Senior CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury, who is a JPC member said that, ‘my dissent note is ready and I will submit it at the meeting of the JPC when it is held next week. It is a detailed note which will give out the reasons why we disapprove the draft report, which is completely biased”. Without elaborating on the contents of his dissent note, he said “it will also act as an alternative report” on the 2G spectrum allocation scam. The draft has given a clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P Chidambaram.

Related links:-


Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Akhilesh Singh Yadav meets Jayalalithaa


Raising speculation about the formation of a third front for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav made a surprise call on his Tamil Nadu counterpart and senior political leader J. Jayalalithaa at Chennai on April 22, 2013 (Monday).
The sudden meeting at the TN Secretariat here that was finalised only April 21, 2013 (Sunday) night gains importance in the light of Jayalalithaa’s open criticism of the BJP for not helping Tamil Nadu’s cause in getting its due share of water from the BJP-governed Karnataka and her allegation that the Centre stifled the Opposition-ruled states.
The SP leader held discussions with the AIADMK supremo at Fort St George for 23 minutes. Despite his promise in the morning that he would brief the media on their meeting, Yadav did not utter a word after the meeting. Jayalalithaa, who left within a few minutes, also did not speak to the media.
Sources said they had discussed the Centre’s “adamant” and “non-friendly” attitude towards non-Congress Chief Ministers. This could, perhaps, bring them under one umbrella in the run-up to the general polls.
Sources said Yadav had conveyed his keenness to meet Jayalalithaa ahead of his scheduled participation at a function organised by Pattali Makkal Katchi in Mamallapuram, near to Chennai.

Related links:


Thursday, April 11, 2013

The great ally bazaar - Indian politics


On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.
It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.
The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.
The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.
The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.
That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.
Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?
  
SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22
Going solo most likely
54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant
Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA
Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.
State: Uttar Pradesh
  
TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19
Going solo Highly Possible
West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.
Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.
Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.
Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.
State: West Bengal
  
BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21
Going solo very likely
60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.
Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.
Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM
State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18
Going solo quite likely
They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes
Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu
Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away
State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09
Going solo Highly possible
Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.
Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.
Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll
State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20
Going solo possible but unlikely
Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.
Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.
Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM
Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress
State: Bihar
   
YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02
Going solo Quite likely
It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats
Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.
Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority
State: Andhra Pradesh
  
BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14
Going solo very likely
The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.
Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha
Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress
State: Odisha