Showing posts with label Akhilesh Yadav. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Akhilesh Yadav. Show all posts

Friday, July 26, 2013

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Uttar Pradesh

In the politically most crucial state of India, the present Akhilesh Yadav government has got a lot of negative reviews. Akhilesh, who led the Samajwadi Party to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, is not seen as an efficient administrator. On almost all the major governance indicators, the votes of Uttar Pradesh have given him a thumbs down. Akhilesh's father Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a better Chief Minister by 53 per cent of the voters. Even among the Samajwadi Party supporters, Mulayam gets 67 per cent votes as compared to 20 per cent votes for his son. After more than a decade, the BJP is coming back strongly in Uttar Pradesh with 28 per cent saying that the party is the best to govern the state. The BSP is seen the best party to govern by 19 per cent, the SP by 16 per cent and the Congress by just 13 per cent. In what can serve as a game changer in the national politics, the BJP has increased its vote share to 27 per cent against the 18 per cent in 2009. The vote share of the ruling SP and the BSP has decreased by 1 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Another party which might see a downfall is the Congress. The survey shows the vote share of Congress has gone down to 16 per cent from 18 per cent in 2009. In terms of seats too, the BJP is way ahead of the SP, the BSP and the Congress. While the BJP is estimated to win 29-33 seats, the SP might bag 17-21 followed by the BSP which could get 14-18 and the Congress which might grab just 11-15 seats.

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Monday, June 10, 2013

Why Only Modi, Why Not Amma?


With mounting voices to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Sanjay Pinto lists ten points why he thinks the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa would make a better choice.
As  calibrated attempts to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial mascot are in full swing, the ‘national’ media is yet to wake up to the possibility of a powerful leader down South being a contender for the crown. In the last few months, talk of a ‘dhoti clad’ PM from the South had been mooted at a literary function attended by politicians and film stars in Chennai; and later picked up and flogged in newspaper columns and on the social media. How about a ‘sari clad’ PM, South of the Vindhyas? Jayalalithaa has already made it clear that she would not have any trucks with either the Congress or the BJP. In the context of a third front, as an alternative to the Congress and BJP led alliances, the possibility of Modi’s good friend and the most powerful lady in Tamil Nadu – Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, emerging not just as a king maker but the queen herself in 2014 cannot be ruled out in India’s ever fluid political scenario. After HD Deve Gowda, who had a short stint as PM in the late nineties, and the late veteran Tamil Nadu Congress leader GK Moopanar who missed the bus with the United Front government, if Amma’s stars shine as they did in 2011, who knows, she may no longer have to send the State’s periodic ‘To Do’ lists to 7 Race Course Road but be able to address them herself!
A fractured mandate next year, or earlier, will make every small party and every seat count. If Jayalalithaa can solve her inherited power shortage to make her free mixies and grinders and laptops run in the next few months, a predicted score card of 30 seats may not be out of reach for the AIADMK. That will give her a huge bargaining chip and the gravitas to cobble together a coalition of like minded parties for a serious shot at Delhi’s corridors of power. Having supported political alliances in the past and even pulling down one of them, the lady from Poes Garden has ‘been there, done that’. Now it’s just a question of taking her clout at the Centre to the next level. I was among the first few journalists in the country to directly broach the subject of a Prime Ministerial inclination with Amma, a few years ago. Her repartee: “No comments. But thank you for the compliment” was interesting. Here’s why I think she will make a good PM.

1.   Jayalalithaa’s leadership qualities and acceptance among possible constituents of a third front is her biggest plus point. We’ve seen many leaders – from Chandrababu Naidu to Left bigwigs descend at her residence to announce Dr Abdul Kalam as their nominee for a second innings at Rashtrapati Bhavan in the previous election. Last year, she was first off the block in mooting the name of former Lok Sabha Speaker and tribal leader PA Sangma as the NDA backed Presidential nominee, with even BJP patriarch LK Advani  holding discussions with her at Fort St.George.
 2.   With friends across the political divide, forming a durable coalition and keeping the flock together may not be a tall order. With her excellent rapport with Samajwadi Party leader and UP CM Akhilesh Yadav and Left leaders like Prakash Karat, coupled with the TINA factor for other parties, perhaps even the Trinamool supremo – Mamata Didi may well accept Amma at the helm. A proven capacity to unite non Congress Chief Ministers over common grievances with the Centre is indicative of her hold over ruling parties in other States.
 3.    Much as she is called an ‘Iron Lady’, Jayalalithaa is known to have an amazing ability to convert her staunch critics and foes into lasting friends. I can never forget MDMK Chief Vaiko who was jailed by her under POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) for 18 months thundering outside the Vellore Prison on his release that he would fight the “fascist regime”. A few months later, he joined hands with Amma and remarked, “This is the finest moment in Tamil Nadu’s political history!” Even after boycotting the 2011 assembly poll because he felt short changed in seat allocation, Vaiko still regards Jayalalithaa as his sister.
 4.   By Indian political standards, 65 year old Jayalalithaa is relatively young. As a powerful regional leader with a brute majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly and her unassailable sway over her own party, she does not have to worry about internal squabbles that have haunted many Prime Ministers.
 5.   A tough and no nonsense approach to governance is what anyone who knows the State well will vouch for. Not afraid of cracking the whip – be it the elimination of the long pending Veerappan menace or the sacking of over a lakh government employees in her previous tenure or the recent handling of the anti Koodankulam protestors, soft pedalling is not an expression in Amma’s lexicon.
 6.   The ‘iron hand’ can also come with a velvet glove. Jayalalithaa seems to have mastered the art of populism (a term she doesn’t quite like, preferring to call it ‘welfare’ instead). Despite a debt of one lakh crore, she adroitly managed to start fulfilling her 2011 freebie election manifesto. In her third innings, she has demonstrated a willingness to reach out to various sections – minorities, caste groups and most importantly the poor. The ‘Amma Canteens’ that serve wholesome food at one rupee and\or a few rupees are a super hit, bigger than a Rajini blockbuster! With the same formula, placating States and allies when in the saddle, should be child’s play.
 7.   An unbiased observer will not fail to notice Jayalalithaa’s national outlook – whether it’s her firm stand against terror and on maintaining law and order or her  environmental policy or the pro nuclear energy stance, after doing her due diligence. Championing the cause of Tamils in Sri Lanka and her strong views on tackling terror, even in a possible Pakistan context, may augur well for a firm foreign policy.
 8.  ‘Tell me who your key officers are and I will tell you if you are a good leader’ can be the new age dictum in governance. Jayalalithaa’s choice of officers has always been spot on. Ask any retired bureaucrat who has served under her (if you think the serving ones will be biased in her favour) and they will fill you in with instances and concrete examples of her administrative acumen and her grasp over complex issues. Choosing a balanced Cabinet is crucial. Amma will pass that test.
 9.   The convent educated heroine turned political leader is suave, articulate and charming enough to even floor international dignitaries like Bill Gates and Hillary Clinton. Coming from the film industry, her communication skills are among the best in India’s political landscape. This was evident even during her Rajya Sabha years.
 10. You can judge a leader’s intellectual prowess by her or his press statements and conferences. Jayalalithaa’s knowledge of national and international affairs, economics and even law (her lawyers tell me that she is so clued in with even all the latest Supreme Court judgments) is impressive. A leader in the hot seat needs to understand the nitty gritty of a wide range of subjects. Not wanting in this department either.
 I’ve been a neutral political commentator all my life and will remain that way. But I don’t believe in denying anyone their due, even if it comes across as slanted. Jayalalithaa has it in her to aspire for the top job. She will, however, need to focus on the challenging task of suffering fools gladly and taking criticism, even if it’s not the constructive variety, in her stride. And yes, the outcome of the wealth case in a Bangalore Court will be crucial for the Chennai Super Queen to strike gold in national politics.

(Sanjay Pinto is a lawyer, columnist and former Resident Editor of NDTV)

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

NCTC

At the internal security meeting, the government is attempting to hard sell a diluted version of the proposed anti-terror body, the National Counter Terrorism Centre or NCTC. 

What is NCTC?
The National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) is a proposed federal anti-terror agency to be created in India modelled on the National Counterterrorism Center of the USA. The proposal arose after the 2008 Mumbai attacks 26/11 attacks where several intelligence and operational failures revealed the need for a federal agency with real time intelligence inputs of actionable value specifically to counter terrorist acts against India. The proposal has however met with much criticism from the Chief Ministers of various states who see this as a means of weakening India's federalism.
After the 26/11 Mumbai attack, it was in this context that the NCTC was mooted as an apex body, a single and effective point of control for all counter terrorism measures. The NCTC is modelled on the American NCTC and Britain's Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre. The model for India was mooted by the then Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, who along with the then National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan, had visited the USA in 2009 to study the functioning of the US' NCTC.
The NCTC will derive its powers from the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, 1967. It is to be a part of the Intelligence Bureau and will be headed by a Director who will report to the Director, IB and the Home Secretary. The NCTC will execute counter-terror operations and collect, collate and disseminate data on terrorism besides maintaining a data base on terrorists and their associates including their families. The NCTC has been empowered to analyse intelligence shared by agencies like the Intelligence Bureau and select what it deems suitable. It has also been granted powers to conduct searches and arrests in any part of India and will formulate responses to terror threats.
Unlike the American NCTC which deals only with strategic planning and integration of intelligence without any operational involvement or the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, which too plays a purely coordinating role, the Indian agency will have not only intelligence functions but also powers to conduct operations. It is this concentration of powers that has had the states objecting to the NCTC, arguing that such sweeping powers vested in a Central agency will violate the autonomy of state governments, given that law and order is a state subject according to the Constitution. It has also been argued that given the establishment of the National Investigating Agency in the aftermath of the 26/11 attacks, the establishment of an NCTC would only add to the bureaucratic tangle in intelligence sharing and counter terrorist action.
It is also argued that the nature of US and Indian federal structures differ vastly and hence suitable amendments are needed for the agency to be effective while guaranteeing the constitutional rights of the states. Some strategic experts like B. Raman of the R&AW have pointed out there are significant loopholes that can still be used in selectively targeting states for political ends. The UPA govt has stuck to its decision to set up NCTC and has promised to resolve all concerns amicably. The initial opposition to the NCTC also focused on how the agency had been empowered to search and arrest people without keeping the state government, police or anti-terror squad in the loop. The Centre has since mooted that the Directors General of Police and the chiefs of anti-terror squads of all states be made members of the Standing Council of the NCTC. These senior police officers are to be informed before the NCTC conducts an operation in their state.

Here are some key points put forward by some political leaders and where they stand on NCTC:-
Leader / Chief Minister
Their argument on NCTC
Mr. P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister (the then Home Minister who formulated NCTC –his pet project)
NCTC has been removed from the Intelligence Bureau. We have also modified some of its powers.  I deeply regret that some chief ministers oppose the NCTC even in its present form. There is no nayi-nayi (new, new) agency. We are not creating multiplicity of agencies. We are not creating multiplicity of agencies.
Ms. J. Jayalalithaa (CM, Tamil Nadu)
Centre should seek the active cooperation of all state governments as its equal partners in the fight against terrorism. The UPA Government was increasingly taking unilateral steps and creating top down structures and parallel authorities that encroach upon the constitutional domain of state governments.
This is an ill-informed and counter-productive approach best illustrated by the ham-handed manner in which the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) has been sought to be established.
I fail to understand why the Centre persists in dealing with such a sensitive matter in such an insidious fashion, treating the state governments as though they are adversaries to be suspected rather than partners, and continues trying to establish the Counter Terrorism Centre by stealth, rather than in a spirit of co-operation and transparency and in partnership with the state governments.
Mr. Narendra Modi (CM, Gujarat)
The Prime Minister and the Home Minister did not speak on NCTC. But it was on agenda. I feel that making new institutions destabilises system.  That they talk of national security but their actions are of political security. The formation of new institutions is to serve this purpose. The Centre has no faith in state governments. I also said that the government is constantly weakening the federal structure. All states work together with the Centre but the Big Brother attitude adopted by the central government is not good.
It is not clear how big it (NCTC) is going to be, what forces  are going to comprise it, how exactly it is going to function and which statute will it derive its powers from. I think such poorly conceived ideas which tinker with age old existing systems rather than strengthening them are going to do irreparable loss to our internal security apparatus. The proposed NCTC will be just another superstructure in the maze of institutions  already existing.
Mr. Siddaramaiah (CM, Karnataka)
Some safeguards are necessary before setting up the NCTC so that it is not given unbridled powers to encroach upon states' domain. As envisaged by the Union government, the National Counter-Terrorism Centre will have to involve multi-dimensional intelligence gathering and an action planning agency. Earlier efforts of containing terrorist activities by the existing organisation for intelligence networking have proved inadequate and ineffective.
Mr. Raman Singh (CM, Chhattisgarh)
We are opposed to the NCTC in its present state. We want that if the NCTC comes into existence, it should respect the federal structure of our Constitution. The participation of states in the NCTC should not get reflected only on paper. To make it effective and useful the state's role should be ratified by Parliament. In the present proposed NCTC an executive order may lead to duplication at the state level.
Mr. Prithviraj Chavan (CM, Maharashtra)
Paragraphs 5.2 and 5.3 of the proposed draft order require further examination to understand the implications of these provisions on operational efficacy and clarity on respective roles in such joint operations.
Mr. Nitish Kumar (CM, Bihar)
Firstly what is the use of creating an operation division within NCTC and giving powers of conducting such operations, if such operations are to be conducted either through or in conjunction with state police


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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Akhilesh Singh Yadav meets Jayalalithaa


Raising speculation about the formation of a third front for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav made a surprise call on his Tamil Nadu counterpart and senior political leader J. Jayalalithaa at Chennai on April 22, 2013 (Monday).
The sudden meeting at the TN Secretariat here that was finalised only April 21, 2013 (Sunday) night gains importance in the light of Jayalalithaa’s open criticism of the BJP for not helping Tamil Nadu’s cause in getting its due share of water from the BJP-governed Karnataka and her allegation that the Centre stifled the Opposition-ruled states.
The SP leader held discussions with the AIADMK supremo at Fort St George for 23 minutes. Despite his promise in the morning that he would brief the media on their meeting, Yadav did not utter a word after the meeting. Jayalalithaa, who left within a few minutes, also did not speak to the media.
Sources said they had discussed the Centre’s “adamant” and “non-friendly” attitude towards non-Congress Chief Ministers. This could, perhaps, bring them under one umbrella in the run-up to the general polls.
Sources said Yadav had conveyed his keenness to meet Jayalalithaa ahead of his scheduled participation at a function organised by Pattali Makkal Katchi in Mamallapuram, near to Chennai.

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