Results from a nearly
20,000-strong opinion poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing
Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Hindu indicate that ‘development and the
economy’ and ‘price rise’ will dominate voter concerns in 2014. Corruption
comes in at a distant fifth, just half as important to voters as ‘development
and the economy’. (Most Important Issues for the 2014 Election)
Moreover, these numbers hold strong, with small
variations, across income groups and social categories. ‘Development and the
economy’ is the top concern for all groups including Muslims, except women for
whom ‘price rise’ is the greatest concern; unsurprising in a country in which
women still do the lion’s share of household work.
With the International
Monetary Fund lowering India’s growth projections for this fiscal year to 5.6%
and food price inflation escalating further towards the end of June when the
survey was conducted, it seems only logical that the economy and price rise
were of greatest concern to voters. The perception of the economy is largely
fair or ‘bad’, with just over 20% seeing the economy in “very good” or “good”
shape. Respondents from western and central India are more positive about the
state of the economy than those in the north, east and south. But with the
rupee in trouble and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warning that there’s a tough
year ahead, the UPA has reason to worry that respondents, especially those
better off and those living in cities, viewed the BJP as being better at
handling economic crises than the economist-led Congress.
More people reported being
satisfied with their personal financial conditions than dissatisfied — 59% as
against 34% — but this satisfaction rating has been dropping sharply since
2011. The poor report consistently lower satisfaction with their financial
situation than the rich in all surveys. Across the spectrum, most seem to agree
inequality has risen.
Although income and
consumption expenditure have risen and poverty, as the latest Planning
Commission figures show, has fallen, the picture on real wages is at best
mixed, but with substantial declines in several sectors. But high inflation,
especially of food, is eroding the purchasing power of many, particularly the
poor. The urban poor, whose real wages have not had the bolstering effect of an
employment guarantee scheme and do not produce any food for self-consumption,
are most vocal about rising prices; nearly 90% of the urban poor said prices of
essential commodities had risen during the tenure of UPA-II, as compared to
just over 80% for the whole sample. Perceptions about rising prices are in
general far stronger in 2013 than in 2011.
Most respondents place the
blame for this with both the government at the Centre and at the States, with
another third blaming only the Central government. In Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Karnataka and Bihar, the anti-Centre sentiment is far stronger, with
far more respondents in these states blaming the Centre than the State or both
for rising prices. (Performance of State Governments; Comparison of State and Central Governments)
Mr. Pronab
Sen, economist and former chief statistician of India told that, it really is
puzzling, that we have had nearly two years now of consumer price inflation
over 10%, and nobody seems to be making an issue out of it. In earlier times,
an unanticipated spike in prices could topple governments. But the opposition
just hasn’t been taking up these questions.
With the government having
added nearly no net new jobs between 2005 and 2010, it isn’t surprising that
nearly 60% of respondents said that employment opportunities had either
remained the same or decreased under the UPA-II. The 2011 Census showed that
for the first time urban job creation had outstripped rural job creation, and
these numbers find an echo in the CSDS survey; 34% of urban voters believe job
opportunities have improved as against 27% of rural voters. While more urban
voters believe job opportunities have increased than decreased, the reverse is
true for rural voters. Women, whose rates of workforce participation are not
just low but are falling as the National Sample Survey shows, report being far
less satisfied with employment opportunities than men.
In Pictures:-
State-wise analysis:-
