2013 Election Tracker Survey: Bihar

For Bihar Chief Nitish Kumar the fight has only got tougher and his party may end up with 15-19 seats in the next Lok Sabha, which will lower than its current tally of 20 MPs. Even though the JD(U) has managed to increase it vote

share to 25 per cent from 24 in the last Lok Sabha election, BJP's emergence as a strong challenger seems to have hit the JD(U) in some pockets of the state.

The satisfaction level with his government has plunged from an unprecedented high of 90 per cent to 69 while the dissatisfaction is up from 9 per cent to 25.

But the BJP too is not sitting very pretty although the party's vote share has seen a huge jump to 22 per cent from 14. While the eight per cent increase in vote share should have ensured more seats to the BJP, what has stopped its march is an equally impressive show by the RJD which has seen its share rising to 24 per cent from 19 in 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

Both the BJP and RJD are projected to win 8-12 seats each by the CSDS-CNN-IBN survey with the Congress, which has hinted that it is eyeing Nitish Kumar's support, a distant fourth with 0-4 seats, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party and others likely to bag 0-2 seats.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Madhya Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (General Opinion)

Parties gear up for poll campaigns

Rs. 2,000 crore. That’s what the Congress, the BJP and other national and regional political parties will spend on advertising in the run-up to assembly elections later this year and ahead of the general elections scheduled for 2014.

The Congress and the BJP have reportedly lined up budgets of about Rs.500 crore each, while regional parties such as DMK, AIADMK, SP, BJP, JD(U), TDP and others are expected to spend another Rs.1,000 crore.

Leading agencies such as Rediffusion Y&R, JWT, Crayon, Percept/H, Grey Group, Dentsu India and Madison World have pitched for the Congress and BJP contracts and have already made their first round of presentations. The parties are expected to award contracts to the selected agencies by September.

Related Links:-

Times Now channel opinion poll on 2014 Elections

Headlines Today channel opinion poll on 2014 Elections

JD (U) & BJP divorced

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has snapped JD(U)’s 17-year-old partnership with BJP and sacked its 11 ministers from his Cabinet, seeking to consolidate his party’s appeal among Muslim voters by refusing to accept the elevation of his Gujarat counterpart Narendra Modi. Kumar, who blamed the “individual-centric” politics of BJP while pulling the plug said that his party could not “sell its soul and countenance the prospect of a polarising figure” as the leader of a coalition. BJP, on the other hand, appeared to have calculated that it had more to gain by projecting Modi than losing JD(U).

With the parting of ways, JD(U) will face a vote of confidence in a special session of the state assembly on June 19, although there is no threat to Kumar’s government as his 119-member party needs the support of just four members after BJP’s 91 members join the ranks of the Opposition.

Kumar has been wary of Modi’s perceived anti-Muslim image since the 2002 riots in Gujarat, prompting him to keep the Gujarat CM from campaigning for his party in Bihar in successive polls. JD(U)’s exit removes last hurdle for BJP’s prime ministerial face, Narendra Modi. But onus will be on Gujarat CM to compensate for losses from collapse of NDA in Bihar

Dismissing BJP’s claim of Modi’s growing popularity, Kumar said elections were not fought or won over Twitter and Facebook. “I have been seeing a new phenomenon — of Internet warriors muzzling dissenting voices,” he said, adding, “We cannot allow divisive politics to flourish.”

Even as BJP has not formally named its prime ministerial candidate, JD(U) has seen Modi’s recent anointment as the chief of his party’s campaign committee for the Lok

Sabha elections as a sign of his inevitable elevation. “After Goa, BJP has unveiled its script. And its choice was made clear as daylight,” said Kumar, referring to BJP’s national executive meet where Modi was named the head of the committee despite opposition from senior leader LK Advani.

BJP, hit back at Kumar, accusing him of betraying the mandate of the last assembly elections in the state. “NDA was given an impressive mandate by the people of Bihar. Did our party deviate from the common agreed programme? Nitish Kumar should resign,” said Sushil Kumar Modi, senior BJP leader and deputy chief minister in the coalition government.

Times Now channel - opinion poll

The UPA is likely to come a cropper in the next Lok Sabha elections with the Congress tally getting almost halved, but the NDA will gain relatively little from its primary rivals decline, according to an opinion poll released by Times Now channel (April 16, 2013).

The poll, done by CVoter for the TV channel, suggests that the biggest gainers could be regional parties like the SP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and YSR Congress, leaving them and others like the BSP, BJD and Left in a position to determine who forms the next government.

The poll projects the UPA in its current form to get just 128 seats, with the Congress winning only 113 compared to its 2009 tally of 206. The NDA is projected to win 184 seats, but that includes 19 seats for the JD(U) which seems most likely to walk out of the BJP-led alliance. If that is factored in, the NDA’s tally would be closer to 160, since the BJP too would presumably win fewer seats in Bihar contesting on its own. In short, both the UPA and the NDA would be well short of the halfway mark of 272, but the BJP would have the consolation of finishing as the single largest if the poll projections prove correct.

Another important caveat is that the poll was conducted between January and March and therefore may not have fully captured the impact (either way) of the hype surrounding Narendra Modi’s increasingly likely projection as the BJP’s PM candidate.

According to the poll, the SP will win 35 seats, TMC and AIADMK 27 each, Left and BSP 26 each, JD(U) 19, BJD 13 and the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress 12. These parties with almost 160 seats between them may well hold the key to government formation in that scenario.

For the Congress, the good news from the poll is that it is likely to gain significantly in Karnataka, winning 18 of the 28 seats compared to the six it won last time. But this gain could be more than offset by massive declines in Andhra (8 compared to 33), UP (6 against 21) and Rajasthan (8 versus 20) and minor losses elsewhere including in Maharashtra.

For the BJP, the gains and losses are projected to be much more modest in most states, except in Karnataka, where the party is estimated to get 7 seats against the 19 it won last time and in Rajasthan, where its tally is predicted to rise from 4 in 2009 to 17 in the next Lok Sabha elections. In Delhi, a 7-0 verdict for the Congress four years ago is projected to become a 6-1 win for the BJP this time.

The great ally bazaar - Indian politics

On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.

It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.

The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.

The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.

The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.

That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.

Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?

  

SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22

Going solo most likely 54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.

State: Uttar Pradesh

  

TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19

Going solo Highly Possible West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.

Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.

State: West Bengal

  

BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21

Going solo very likely 60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.

Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM

State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18

Going solo quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes

Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu

Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away

State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09

Going solo Highly possible Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.

Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll

State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20

Going solo possible but unlikely Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.

Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress

State: Bihar

   

YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02

Going solo Quite likely It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats

Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.

Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority

State: Andhra Pradesh

  

BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14

Going solo very likely The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.

Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha

Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress

State: Odisha