2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish Kumar - prefer for PM in non-Cong and non-BJP

Even as the survey shows that Nitish Kumar's strategy to dump and BJP and go alone has not paid rich dividends, there is still some good news for him as the survey also shows that the Bihar Chief Minister remains the most popular non-Congress, non-BJP choice for the Prime Minister of India with 12 per cent of the respondents reposing their faith in him. Nitish is followed by Mayawati (9 per cent), Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party supreme Mulayam Singh Yadav (8 per cent), NCP chief Sharad Pawar and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik (4 per cent) and J Jayalalithaa (3 per cent).

See Also:-

 2013 Election Tracker Survey (in general)

2013 Election Tracker Survey: West Bengal

As India gets ready for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the two key states of West Bengal and Bihar are going to prove very crucial in ensuring who forms the next government at the Centre. Both states are ruled by strong regional parties led by charismatic leaders who are yet to clearly spell out their plans for the next Lok Sabha elections.

According to a CSDS-CNN-IBN survey, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal has consolidated its position since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009 while the situation is not so clear in Bihar where the Janata Dal (United) snapped its ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) following the elevation of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as election campaign committee chief.

The TMC is not only going retain its dominant position in West Bengal but will leave its rivals way behind if elections are held in July 2013. The survey shows the TMC winning 23-27 seats compared to just 19 that the party had in 2009 even though its vote share has increased by just one percentage point to 32 from 31 the last time.

Mamata's arch-rivals the Left Front has slipped back further and most probably

will end with just 7-11 seats from the 15 that it has in the current Lok Sabha while the Congress is likely to bag 5-9 seats and BJP 0-2.

While most people prefer the present TMC government (39 per cent) to previous Left Front government (29 per cent), particularly in rural areas; but in urban areas, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's government favoured more than Mamata Banerjee's.

The TMC government is also being blamed by more people for the chit fund scam with most people also saying that its fallout has been handled poorly by the Mamata Banerjee government. While Mamata rode to power in West Bengal ending the 34-year long rule of the Left Front using the slogan of "parivartan" (change), half of those surveyed say they are yet to see any major change.

In Pictures:-

See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Gujarat"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Uttar Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Madhya Pradesh"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Maharashtra"
2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Andhra Pradesh"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Tamil Nadu"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "Bihar"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: State Scan - "West Bengal"

2013 Election Tracker Survey: Nitish prefer for PM in non-Cong,non-BJP

2013 Election Tracker Survey: UPA-II more corrupt

2013 Election Tracker Survey (in General)

NCTC

At the internal security meeting, the government is attempting to hard sell a diluted version of the proposed anti-terror body, the National Counter Terrorism Centre or NCTC. 

What is NCTC?

The National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) is a proposed federal anti-terror agency to be created in India modelled on the National Counterterrorism Center of the USA. The proposal arose after the 2008 Mumbai attacks 26/11 attacks where several intelligence and operational failures revealed the need for a federal agency with real time intelligence inputs of actionable value specifically to counter terrorist acts against India. The proposal has however met with much criticism from the Chief Ministers of various states who see this as a means of weakening India's federalism.

After the 26/11 Mumbai attack, it was in this context that the NCTC was mooted as an apex body, a single and effective point of control for all counter terrorism measures. The NCTC is modelled on the American NCTC and Britain's Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre. The model for India was mooted by the then Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, who along with the then National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan, had visited the USA in 2009 to study the functioning of the US' NCTC.

The NCTC will derive its powers from the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, 1967. It is to be a part of the Intelligence Bureau and will be headed by a Director who will report to the Director, IB and the Home Secretary. The NCTC will execute counter-terror operations and collect, collate and disseminate data on terrorism besides maintaining a data base on terrorists and their associates including their families. The NCTC has been empowered to analyse intelligence shared by agencies like the Intelligence Bureau and select what it deems suitable. It has also been granted powers to conduct searches and arrests in any part of India and will formulate responses to terror threats.

Unlike the American NCTC which deals only with strategic planning and integration of intelligence without any operational involvement or the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, which too plays a purely coordinating role, the Indian agency will have not only intelligence functions but also powers to conduct operations. It is this concentration of powers that has had the states objecting to the NCTC, arguing that such sweeping powers vested in a Central agency will violate the autonomy of state governments, given that law and order is a state subject according to the Constitution. It has also been argued that given the establishment of the National Investigating Agency in the aftermath of the 26/11 attacks, the establishment of an NCTC would only add to the bureaucratic tangle in intelligence sharing and counter terrorist action.

It is also argued that the nature of US and Indian federal structures differ vastly and hence suitable amendments are needed for the agency to be effective while guaranteeing the constitutional rights of the states. Some strategic experts like B. Raman of the R&AW have pointed out there are significant loopholes that can still be used in selectively targeting states for political ends. The UPA govt has stuck to its decision to set up NCTC and has promised to resolve all concerns amicably. The initial opposition to the NCTC also focused on how the agency had been empowered to search and arrest people without keeping the state government, police or anti-terror squad in the loop. The Centre has since mooted that the Directors General of Police and the chiefs of anti-terror squads of all states be made members of the Standing Council of the NCTC. These senior police officers are to be informed before the NCTC conducts an operation in their state.

Here are some key points put forward by some political leaders and where they stand on NCTC:-

Leader / Chief Minister	Their argument on NCTC
Mr. P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister (the then Home Minister who formulated NCTC –his pet project)	NCTC has been removed from the Intelligence Bureau. We have also modified some of its powers.  I deeply regret that some chief ministers oppose the NCTC even in its present form. There is no nayi-nayi (new, new) agency. We are not creating multiplicity of agencies. We are not creating multiplicity of agencies.
Ms. J. Jayalalithaa (CM, Tamil Nadu)	Centre should seek the active cooperation of all state governments as its equal partners in the fight against terrorism. The UPA Government was increasingly taking unilateral steps and creating top down structures and parallel authorities that encroach upon the constitutional domain of state governments. This is an ill-informed and counter-productive approach best illustrated by the ham-handed manner in which the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) has been sought to be established. I fail to understand why the Centre persists in dealing with such a sensitive matter in such an insidious fashion, treating the state governments as though they are adversaries to be suspected rather than partners, and continues trying to establish the Counter Terrorism Centre by stealth, rather than in a spirit of co-operation and transparency and in partnership with the state governments.
Mr. Narendra Modi (CM, Gujarat)	The Prime Minister and the Home Minister did not speak on NCTC. But it was on agenda. I feel that making new institutions destabilises system.  That they talk of national security but their actions are of political security. The formation of new institutions is to serve this purpose. The Centre has no faith in state governments. I also said that the government is constantly weakening the federal structure. All states work together with the Centre but the Big Brother attitude adopted by the central government is not good. It is not clear how big it (NCTC) is going to be, what forces  are going to comprise it, how exactly it is going to function and which statute will it derive its powers from. I think such poorly conceived ideas which tinker with age old existing systems rather than strengthening them are going to do irreparable loss to our internal security apparatus. The proposed NCTC will be just another superstructure in the maze of institutions  already existing.
Mr. Siddaramaiah (CM, Karnataka)	Some safeguards are necessary before setting up the NCTC so that it is not given unbridled powers to encroach upon states' domain. As envisaged by the Union government, the National Counter-Terrorism Centre will have to involve multi-dimensional intelligence gathering and an action planning agency. Earlier efforts of containing terrorist activities by the existing organisation for intelligence networking have proved inadequate and ineffective.
Mr. Raman Singh (CM, Chhattisgarh)	We are opposed to the NCTC in its present state. We want that if the NCTC comes into existence, it should respect the federal structure of our Constitution. The participation of states in the NCTC should not get reflected only on paper. To make it effective and useful the state's role should be ratified by Parliament. In the present proposed NCTC an executive order may lead to duplication at the state level.
Mr. Prithviraj Chavan (CM, Maharashtra)	Paragraphs 5.2 and 5.3 of the proposed draft order require further examination to understand the implications of these provisions on operational efficacy and clarity on respective roles in such joint operations.
Mr. Nitish Kumar (CM, Bihar)	Firstly what is the use of creating an operation division within NCTC and giving powers of conducting such operations, if such operations are to be conducted either through or in conjunction with state police

 Related Links:-

PM's speech on internal security

The great ally bazaar - Indian politics

On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.

It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.

The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.

The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.

The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.

That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.

Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?

  

SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22

Going solo most likely 54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.

State: Uttar Pradesh

  

TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19

Going solo Highly Possible West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.

Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.

State: West Bengal

  

BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21

Going solo very likely 60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.

Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM

State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18

Going solo quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes

Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu

Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away

State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09

Going solo Highly possible Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.

Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll

State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20

Going solo possible but unlikely Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.

Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress

State: Bihar

   

YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02

Going solo Quite likely It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats

Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.

Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority

State: Andhra Pradesh

  

BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14

Going solo very likely The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.

Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha

Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress

State: Odisha

Delhi is not safe, I was manhandled like anything: Mamata Banerjee

 West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has said she will fly back to Kolkata and has cancelled all her meetings in Delhi. She said she was advised by doctors to get hospitalised but she did not want to be hospitalised.She said that, "I was given oxygen whole night on Tuesday, the doctor advised me to get hospitalised, but I don't like to get hospitalised".

Mamata also said Delhi is unsafe and that she "was manhandled like anything." She also alleged that the police did not co-operate outside the Planning Commission office. She said, "I think this is the first time such a thing has happened in New Delhi. I was also manhandled like anything. I requested the police to open the doors but they said that they don't have the keys”.

She also apologised to the Prime Minister for cancelling her meeting with him. "I could not attend the meeting with the Prime Minister. I apologise for that. The Prime Minister also apologised to me for yesterday's attack”. Mamata lashed out at the CPM for the attack on her and her Finance Minister Amit Mitra. She added that, "Our cadres are peaceful; all ruckus was created by the CPM. It's a double standard game of CPM, they are hypocrites." "After 35 years, I have managed to stop bloodbath in West Bengal".

While Mamata slammed the Left, the war of words between the TMC and CPM continued. TMC leader Mukul Roy said during the party's protest in Delhi that, the attack on Mamata and Amit Mitra is undemocratic. It is an unprecedented event and a planned attack by the CPM to assault our minister. On the other hand, CPM leader Sitaram Yechury said, "The CPM strongly condemns the attack on Left offices. We demand a judicial probe into the death of Sudipto Gupta."

Amit Mitra was manhandled by SFI activists protesting against Sudipto Gupta's death. Mamata was livid. As the protesters chanted "Mamata Banerjee hai hai (Mamata down down), TMC hai hai, Hatyari Mamata sharm karo (have shame, killer Mamata)", an agitated Chief Minister walked into the building shouting, "This is uncivilised behaviour". Her party workers back home went on a rampage. Left activists were attacked and their offices were vandalised. Trinamool leaders were soon appealing for calm and the Left, too, joined in.

In Pictures:--

SFI activists attack West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra as he arrives to meet Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia in New Delhi. 

Security women protect West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee during a protest by SFI activists on her arrival at Yojana Bhavan in New Delhi. SFI activists were protesting over the death of Sudipto Gupta. 

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee with Finance Minister Amit Mitra at a meeting with Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia in New Delhi. 

West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra showing his torn kurta (shirt) to Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee at a meeting in New Delhi. 

Modi speech at Kolkata: to align with Mamata??

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi moved his road-show to Kolkata, where he addressed industrialists and  aligned himself with  Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, empathizing with her task to "fill the potholes created by the left in over 30 years of rule" and attacking the union government for discriminating against Bengal.  

His recent speeches, most of them televised, are being interpreted as a promotional tour to convince his party to let him run for Prime Minister, but in Kolkata, Mr. Modi said, "A politician may have the desire to be Prime Minister, but I am not a politician." His diplomacy was notable. He alerted the media that he would make no comparison of his government to Ms. Banerjee's.  

Mr. Modi's investment-friendly policies have made him a favourite with India Inc.  Ms. Banerjee is seen as anti-industry, owing largely to  her campaign against Tata Motors, which was forced to shut down its Nano factory in Singur in Begnal and relocate to Gujarat.

The BJP leader's sharpest jabs were reserved for the centre, which he rendered deftly and in quick succession, describing it as a "snowball melting in front of our eyes."  He also castigated the Congress-led UPA for undermining federalism and for discriminating against states where it is not in power, both issues which Ms. Banerjee has vented about repeatedly.

Mr. Modi has been working hard on nationalizing his brand since his re-election in December.  In a series of addresses to high-profile gatherings, he has been selling his model of development in Gujarat as the solution to India's economic slowdown.

The aggressive campaign is aimed at pitching him as the BJP's best candidate for prime minister.  The party has promoted him recently to posts that will give him a large say in plans for the national elections, but Mr. Modi has not yet been declared the BJP's presumptive candidate, despite the clamour of party workers.

Highlights of Mr. Modi's answers from the Q&A round:

·        You cannot put one state's model into another state. It needs modification, not Modi-fication.

·        In any foreign policy, we have to put our interests  first. Today, by and large, the relations with the world is based on trade and commerce. It is the age of global economy - and that is at the centre of all borders.

·        In any group, we are participants and never leaders - not even in SAARC. We can't even lead the smaller nations in our neighbourhood.

·        How do we make the youth of our country productive? - through skill development.

·        For example, the world needs teachers, nurses. We can develop the human resources and export teachers and nurses. We can add a new paradigm to economic development.

·        I told the PM the age of solar energy is coming. You must take initiative and start a Sun movement with other countries. But there was no proactive role.

·        (On being asked for suggestions for developing tourism in Bengal): This time I am in Bengal as a student and my priority is to learn. I know Bengalis are best tourists - and they are guests, who never trouble their hosts. I want Bengalis to come to Gujarat in greater numbers to Gujarat; See the lions of Gir and the Rann of Kutch on a moonlit night.

·        Politician may have a last wish but I don't. I am an apolitical person.