BJP mollifies Advani, assures a say in selecting prime ministerial candidate

 Barely 36 hours after he resigned from all posts he occupied in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Lal Krishna Advani has snatched a tactical victory from the jaws of retirement. The biggest crisis in the BJP's history may have appeared to be no more than an extended sulk, but Advani stayed on top of the twists and turns of the resolution process to wring out important concessions from the party's parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), on the way the party is run. The interface between the BJP and RSS came out from behind the shadows as the crisis was resolved.

Advani has clipped the wings of the triumvirate that comprises BJP president Rajnath Singh, RSS pointperson in the BJP Suresh Soni, and BJP general secretary (organisation) Ram Lal. In the process Advani has refurbished somewhat his ties with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and his protege Nitin Gadkari, creating a counterbalancing axis of his own that also includes RSS general secretary Bhaiyaji Joshi.

Advani's greatest success-and the condition on which his return was predicated-was to make Gadkari and Bhaiyaji agree that they would keep him abreast of all decision making, a gamechanger that was then communicated to Rajnath. RSS chief Bhagwat, whose advice in late 2011 to Advani on making way for younger blood hasn't stopped resonating in the party, was also brought on board the new saffron order of things by Gadkari.

Advani also managed to restrict the influence of Narendra Modi, following his recent appointment as campaign committee chief, by reiterating the importance of the central election committee.

In an attempt to mollify the sulking patriarch, BJP president Rajnath Singh said: "Whenever he (Advani) raises any concerns related to the party, I will personally address them." Singh did deliver a subtle message to Advani, saying that he "had decided to abide by the decision of the parliamentary board (to take back his resignation)".

By extension, it meant that Advani will have to accept the party's decision to elevate Modi as the chairman of the election campaign committee. Even though Singh and the RSS spared no effort in imploring Advani to take back his resignation, they made it clear that the decision to appoint Modi as the campaign in-charge was irreversible.

          BJP vice-president Prabhat Jha told that, BJP have the utmost respect for Advaniji, but the national executive's decision also has to be respected. As a concession, the RSS and the party leadership have assured Advani that the decision on the BJP's prime ministerial candidate will be kept opend-ended.

They assured him that he would be consulted in detail when the time for the decision comes. Advani has also supposedly been assured of a dominant say in the distribution of tickets, through the central election committee.

Some believe this could be a way of keeping a subtle check on the influence of Narendra Modi. Unlike previous campaign committee chairmen like Pramod Mahajan (2004) and Arun Jaitley (2009), Modi is not just the campaign in-charge, he will also be the chief campaigner of the party. The deal between Advani and the party leadership was brokered by the RSS. RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat spoke to Advani. A critical role in bringing Advani to an agreement was played by RSS protege and former BJP president Nitin Gadkari. Gadkari arrived in Delhi early in the morning. He reached Advani's residence and stayed there throughout the day, until the deal was finally struck.

Another part of the agreement could be a modification in the manner in which RSS-BJP relations are being managed. One of Advani's demands were supposedly that the influence of RSS leader Suresh Soni be checked. This suits Gadkari and Bhagwat as well as Soni had played a critical role in nixing the former's second term as BJP president.

The main grouse which prompted Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) patriarch L.K. Advani to resign on Monday is the influence the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) continues to wield in party affairs but his desperate act, ironically, ended up reinforcing the RSS's power over the BJP.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat personally intervened in the matter, which compelled Advani to kiss and make up with BJP president Rajnath Singh. From here on, Rajnath Singh will have to take Advani on board viz major decisions. This was communicated by Bhagwat to Rajnath. However, Advani might have been able to achieve a subtle change in the manner in which RSS-BJP relations are being managed.

Party sources reveal that even though Advani has been engaged in a tug-of-war with the RSS, his antipathy is particularly focused on a faction of the organisation headed by Suresh Soni who is currently number three in the Sangh hierarchy.

It is believed that Advani's discontent has been amplified over the past three months as party affairs are being dominated by a troika of Soni, his protege Ram Lal who is the BJP's general secretary (organisation), and Rajnath Singh, who is also known to be close to Soni. This troika has played a crucial role in Narendra Modi's rise within the party in the past few months.

Soni is said to have played a critical role in scuttling Advani's proposal of including Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the parliamentary board, as he had an old axe to grind with him.

Sources said that an unsaid aspect of the 'peace deal' between Advani, the RSS and the party leadership, is that Soni's wings will be clipped. This can be seen from the crucial role played by not just Bhagwat, but also his protégé Nitin Gadkari and RSS ideologue S Gurumurthy, in brokering the deal.

This could involve a repeat of a formula prepared by Gadkari during his presidency, whereby RSS-BJP relations are managed not just by Soni, but by a collegium which comprises RSS Sarkaryavah Suresh 'Bhaiyaji' Joshi and Sah Sarkaryavah Dattatreya Hosabale, in addition to Soni.

This arrangement could also bring about a subtle rapproachment between Advani on one hand and Bhagwat and Gadkari on the other.

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For 2014, BJP bet on Narendra Modi

For 2014, BJP bets on Narendra Modi

Panaji once again turned out to be a key milestone in Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s political journey. He was appointed the chairman of BJP’s national campaign committee, widely seen as an almost inevitable precursor to being named the party’s PM candidate. Making the announcement at the end of a dramatic three-day conclave, media coverage of which was dominated by the absence of party patriarch LK Advani, BJP chief Rajnath Singh claimed the decision was unanimous.

“To prepare for the next election, I have appointed Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the national campaign committee chief,” Singh told reporters. By the BJP chief ’s side was the entire top leadership, except Advani, whose absence had reinforced the fissures within the party on 62-year-old Modi’s elevation.

However, within minutes of the announcement that puts Modi at the helm of affairs in the party, the Gujarat CM tweeted that all was well. “Spoke to Advaniji on phone. He gave me his blessings. Am honoured and extremely grateful to receive his blessings.”

It was the staunch support of Advani that had enabled Modi to survive the fateful 2002 national executive meet at Goa, when the then prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee wanted him to quit in the aftermath of the Gujarat riots.

However, within minutes of the announcement that puts Modi at the helm of affairs in the party, the Gujarat CM tweeted that all was well. “Spoke to Advaniji on phone. He gave me his blessings. Am honoured and extremely grateful to receive his blessings.”

This was also the tone of his speech at the party meet and later while addressing party workers, in his first address after elevation. As he often does, Modi invoked Vajpayee’s name saying that under Rajnath Singh’s leadership the party will take forward the work started by the former prime minister. He also acknowledged that Goa has turned out lucky for him.

Modi expressed gratitude to party leaders for entrusting him the task of heading the party’s 2014 campaign management, saying they have enhanced his personality “removing my weaknesses and replacing them with strengths”. The public meeting was attended by the party chief, leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley, Ananth Kumar and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar, among others.

Rajnath Singh expressed happiness with his decision to elevate Modi, saying he had no second thoughts about it. Jaitley said Singh had given a new direction to the politics of the country. “Decisiveness is the footprint of a true leader,” he said.

The BJP leader, while addressing the national executive, said though there were nine months left for the Lok Sabha elections, the party should prepare itself assuming it would be in three-four months. He said it was keeping this in mind that a campaign committee was being formed.

Parrikar said while the party was talking of “indecisiveness” of Congress, it should address the “indecisiveness” within itself. This triggered applause, indicating the pressure on the leadership for clarity on the leadership issue. Singh was under pressure from the party and RSS to make a formal announcement indicating that Modi would be BJP’s face for 2014 elections.

However, on Saturday night there were some last-minute parleys as several leaders were of the view that the announcement should not be made in Advani’s absence. There was speculation that BJP was weighing three options — making Modi the chief of a poll panel, deferring a formal announcement in Advani’s absence and anointing him the prime ministerial candidate immediately. Late in the night, after discussions with Advani, it was decided the party would stick to its script of announcing him the head of a campaign committee at the end of the national executive.

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After 36 hours of high drama, Advani withdrew his resignation

Why Only Modi, Why Not Amma?

With mounting voices to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Sanjay Pinto lists ten points why he thinks the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa would make a better choice.

As  calibrated attempts to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial mascot are in full swing, the ‘national’ media is yet to wake up to the possibility of a powerful leader down South being a contender for the crown. In the last few months, talk of a ‘dhoti clad’ PM from the South had been mooted at a literary function attended by politicians and film stars in Chennai; and later picked up and flogged in newspaper columns and on the social media. How about a ‘sari clad’ PM, South of the Vindhyas? Jayalalithaa has already made it clear that she would not have any trucks with either the Congress or the BJP. In the context of a third front, as an alternative to the Congress and BJP led alliances, the possibility of Modi’s good friend and the most powerful lady in Tamil Nadu – Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, emerging not just as a king maker but the queen herself in 2014 cannot be ruled out in India’s ever fluid political scenario. After HD Deve Gowda, who had a short stint as PM in the late nineties, and the late veteran Tamil Nadu Congress leader GK Moopanar who missed the bus with the United Front government, if Amma’s stars shine as they did in 2011, who knows, she may no longer have to send the State’s periodic ‘To Do’ lists to 7 Race Course Road but be able to address them herself!

A fractured mandate next year, or earlier, will make every small party and every seat count. If Jayalalithaa can solve her inherited power shortage to make her free mixies and grinders and laptops run in the next few months, a predicted score card of 30 seats may not be out of reach for the AIADMK. That will give her a huge bargaining chip and the gravitas to cobble together a coalition of like minded parties for a serious shot at Delhi’s corridors of power. Having supported political alliances in the past and even pulling down one of them, the lady from Poes Garden has ‘been there, done that’. Now it’s just a question of taking her clout at the Centre to the next level. I was among the first few journalists in the country to directly broach the subject of a Prime Ministerial inclination with Amma, a few years ago. Her repartee: “No comments. But thank you for the compliment” was interesting. Here’s why I think she will make a good PM.

1.   Jayalalithaa’s leadership qualities and acceptance among possible constituents of a third front is her biggest plus point. We’ve seen many leaders – from Chandrababu Naidu to Left bigwigs descend at her residence to announce Dr Abdul Kalam as their nominee for a second innings at Rashtrapati Bhavan in the previous election. Last year, she was first off the block in mooting the name of former Lok Sabha Speaker and tribal leader PA Sangma as the NDA backed Presidential nominee, with even BJP patriarch LK Advani  holding discussions with her at Fort St.George.

 2.   With friends across the political divide, forming a durable coalition and keeping the flock together may not be a tall order. With her excellent rapport with Samajwadi Party leader and UP CM Akhilesh Yadav and Left leaders like Prakash Karat, coupled with the TINA factor for other parties, perhaps even the Trinamool supremo – Mamata Didi may well accept Amma at the helm. A proven capacity to unite non Congress Chief Ministers over common grievances with the Centre is indicative of her hold over ruling parties in other States.

 3.    Much as she is called an ‘Iron Lady’, Jayalalithaa is known to have an amazing ability to convert her staunch critics and foes into lasting friends. I can never forget MDMK Chief Vaiko who was jailed by her under POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) for 18 months thundering outside the Vellore Prison on his release that he would fight the “fascist regime”. A few months later, he joined hands with Amma and remarked, “This is the finest moment in Tamil Nadu’s political history!” Even after boycotting the 2011 assembly poll because he felt short changed in seat allocation, Vaiko still regards Jayalalithaa as his sister.

 4.   By Indian political standards, 65 year old Jayalalithaa is relatively young. As a powerful regional leader with a brute majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly and her unassailable sway over her own party, she does not have to worry about internal squabbles that have haunted many Prime Ministers.

 5.   A tough and no nonsense approach to governance is what anyone who knows the State well will vouch for. Not afraid of cracking the whip – be it the elimination of the long pending Veerappan menace or the sacking of over a lakh government employees in her previous tenure or the recent handling of the anti Koodankulam protestors, soft pedalling is not an expression in Amma’s lexicon.

 6.   The ‘iron hand’ can also come with a velvet glove. Jayalalithaa seems to have mastered the art of populism (a term she doesn’t quite like, preferring to call it ‘welfare’ instead). Despite a debt of one lakh crore, she adroitly managed to start fulfilling her 2011 freebie election manifesto. In her third innings, she has demonstrated a willingness to reach out to various sections – minorities, caste groups and most importantly the poor. The ‘Amma Canteens’ that serve wholesome food at one rupee and\or a few rupees are a super hit, bigger than a Rajini blockbuster! With the same formula, placating States and allies when in the saddle, should be child’s play.

 7.   An unbiased observer will not fail to notice Jayalalithaa’s national outlook – whether it’s her firm stand against terror and on maintaining law and order or her  environmental policy or the pro nuclear energy stance, after doing her due diligence. Championing the cause of Tamils in Sri Lanka and her strong views on tackling terror, even in a possible Pakistan context, may augur well for a firm foreign policy.

 8.  ‘Tell me who your key officers are and I will tell you if you are a good leader’ can be the new age dictum in governance. Jayalalithaa’s choice of officers has always been spot on. Ask any retired bureaucrat who has served under her (if you think the serving ones will be biased in her favour) and they will fill you in with instances and concrete examples of her administrative acumen and her grasp over complex issues. Choosing a balanced Cabinet is crucial. Amma will pass that test.

 9.   The convent educated heroine turned political leader is suave, articulate and charming enough to even floor international dignitaries like Bill Gates and Hillary Clinton. Coming from the film industry, her communication skills are among the best in India’s political landscape. This was evident even during her Rajya Sabha years.

 10. You can judge a leader’s intellectual prowess by her or his press statements and conferences. Jayalalithaa’s knowledge of national and international affairs, economics and even law (her lawyers tell me that she is so clued in with even all the latest Supreme Court judgments) is impressive. A leader in the hot seat needs to understand the nitty gritty of a wide range of subjects. Not wanting in this department either.

 I’ve been a neutral political commentator all my life and will remain that way. But I don’t believe in denying anyone their due, even if it comes across as slanted. Jayalalithaa has it in her to aspire for the top job. She will, however, need to focus on the challenging task of suffering fools gladly and taking criticism, even if it’s not the constructive variety, in her stride. And yes, the outcome of the wealth case in a Bangalore Court will be crucial for the Chennai Super Queen to strike gold in national politics.

(Sanjay Pinto is a lawyer, columnist and former Resident Editor of NDTV)