Congress and DMDK set to go hand in hand?

Though AICC vice-president Mr. Rahul Gandhi greeting Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) founder Mr. Vijayakant on his birthday [Aug 25, 2013] is seen as an important development, Congress leaders in the State refuse to read more into it, saying the situation is still in a flux to talk about alliance.

An AICC secretary from the State said that, today, in Tamil Nadu, both the Congress and the DMK are almost in the same position. While the DMDK, which has consolidated anti-Dravidian forces to certain extent, has succeeded in establishing itself as a force to reckon with, the Congress could not do it because it never capitalised the anti-Dravidian sentiments in the State.

Besides Mr. Rahul Gandhi, AICC general secretary Mukul Wasnik, TNCC president B.S. Gnanadesikan, Union Ministers G.K. Vasan and E.M. Sudarsan Natchiappan were among those who wished the DMDK leader on his birthday.

The Congress secretary said Mr. Gandhi and Vijayakant established contacts after the DMDK sought the support of the Congress for its candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls. But, finally, Congress decided to support DMK candidate Ms. Kanimozhi. This goes to prove that our party would rely on either of the Dravidian parties when it comes to Lok Sabha polls.

Another Congress leader dismissed the argument that Mr. Rahul Gandhi’s birthday message to Mr. Vijayakant assumed significance because he never greeted DMK president M. Karunanidhi or called on him during his visit to Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that on the occasion of Mr. Karunanidhi’s birthday, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh greeted him every time.

Despite displaying themselves as friendly towards the DMDK, the Congress leaders say it is “too early” to come to the conclusion on the alliance as it is not clear whether Mr. Vijayakant would agree to be a constituent of the front that includes the DMK.

          Congress sources said that, they want to form a broad alliance. But, also feel enthused by the Congress’ performance in the Lok Sabha by-elections in Karnataka and the changed attitude of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa towards the Food Security Bill. Though there are ifs and buts in her stand, this is for the first time that she is seen to be favourably disposed towards Congress party.

Parties gear up for poll campaigns

Rs. 2,000 crore. That’s what the Congress, the BJP and other national and regional political parties will spend on advertising in the run-up to assembly elections later this year and ahead of the general elections scheduled for 2014.

The Congress and the BJP have reportedly lined up budgets of about Rs.500 crore each, while regional parties such as DMK, AIADMK, SP, BJP, JD(U), TDP and others are expected to spend another Rs.1,000 crore.

Leading agencies such as Rediffusion Y&R, JWT, Crayon, Percept/H, Grey Group, Dentsu India and Madison World have pitched for the Congress and BJP contracts and have already made their first round of presentations. The parties are expected to award contracts to the selected agencies by September.

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Times Now channel opinion poll on 2014 Elections

Headlines Today channel opinion poll on 2014 Elections

JD (U) & BJP divorced

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has snapped JD(U)’s 17-year-old partnership with BJP and sacked its 11 ministers from his Cabinet, seeking to consolidate his party’s appeal among Muslim voters by refusing to accept the elevation of his Gujarat counterpart Narendra Modi. Kumar, who blamed the “individual-centric” politics of BJP while pulling the plug said that his party could not “sell its soul and countenance the prospect of a polarising figure” as the leader of a coalition. BJP, on the other hand, appeared to have calculated that it had more to gain by projecting Modi than losing JD(U).

With the parting of ways, JD(U) will face a vote of confidence in a special session of the state assembly on June 19, although there is no threat to Kumar’s government as his 119-member party needs the support of just four members after BJP’s 91 members join the ranks of the Opposition.

Kumar has been wary of Modi’s perceived anti-Muslim image since the 2002 riots in Gujarat, prompting him to keep the Gujarat CM from campaigning for his party in Bihar in successive polls. JD(U)’s exit removes last hurdle for BJP’s prime ministerial face, Narendra Modi. But onus will be on Gujarat CM to compensate for losses from collapse of NDA in Bihar

Dismissing BJP’s claim of Modi’s growing popularity, Kumar said elections were not fought or won over Twitter and Facebook. “I have been seeing a new phenomenon — of Internet warriors muzzling dissenting voices,” he said, adding, “We cannot allow divisive politics to flourish.”

Even as BJP has not formally named its prime ministerial candidate, JD(U) has seen Modi’s recent anointment as the chief of his party’s campaign committee for the Lok

Sabha elections as a sign of his inevitable elevation. “After Goa, BJP has unveiled its script. And its choice was made clear as daylight,” said Kumar, referring to BJP’s national executive meet where Modi was named the head of the committee despite opposition from senior leader LK Advani.

BJP, hit back at Kumar, accusing him of betraying the mandate of the last assembly elections in the state. “NDA was given an impressive mandate by the people of Bihar. Did our party deviate from the common agreed programme? Nitish Kumar should resign,” said Sushil Kumar Modi, senior BJP leader and deputy chief minister in the coalition government.

BJP mollifies Advani, assures a say in selecting prime ministerial candidate

 Barely 36 hours after he resigned from all posts he occupied in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Lal Krishna Advani has snatched a tactical victory from the jaws of retirement. The biggest crisis in the BJP's history may have appeared to be no more than an extended sulk, but Advani stayed on top of the twists and turns of the resolution process to wring out important concessions from the party's parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), on the way the party is run. The interface between the BJP and RSS came out from behind the shadows as the crisis was resolved.

Advani has clipped the wings of the triumvirate that comprises BJP president Rajnath Singh, RSS pointperson in the BJP Suresh Soni, and BJP general secretary (organisation) Ram Lal. In the process Advani has refurbished somewhat his ties with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and his protege Nitin Gadkari, creating a counterbalancing axis of his own that also includes RSS general secretary Bhaiyaji Joshi.

Advani's greatest success-and the condition on which his return was predicated-was to make Gadkari and Bhaiyaji agree that they would keep him abreast of all decision making, a gamechanger that was then communicated to Rajnath. RSS chief Bhagwat, whose advice in late 2011 to Advani on making way for younger blood hasn't stopped resonating in the party, was also brought on board the new saffron order of things by Gadkari.

Advani also managed to restrict the influence of Narendra Modi, following his recent appointment as campaign committee chief, by reiterating the importance of the central election committee.

In an attempt to mollify the sulking patriarch, BJP president Rajnath Singh said: "Whenever he (Advani) raises any concerns related to the party, I will personally address them." Singh did deliver a subtle message to Advani, saying that he "had decided to abide by the decision of the parliamentary board (to take back his resignation)".

By extension, it meant that Advani will have to accept the party's decision to elevate Modi as the chairman of the election campaign committee. Even though Singh and the RSS spared no effort in imploring Advani to take back his resignation, they made it clear that the decision to appoint Modi as the campaign in-charge was irreversible.

          BJP vice-president Prabhat Jha told that, BJP have the utmost respect for Advaniji, but the national executive's decision also has to be respected. As a concession, the RSS and the party leadership have assured Advani that the decision on the BJP's prime ministerial candidate will be kept opend-ended.

They assured him that he would be consulted in detail when the time for the decision comes. Advani has also supposedly been assured of a dominant say in the distribution of tickets, through the central election committee.

Some believe this could be a way of keeping a subtle check on the influence of Narendra Modi. Unlike previous campaign committee chairmen like Pramod Mahajan (2004) and Arun Jaitley (2009), Modi is not just the campaign in-charge, he will also be the chief campaigner of the party. The deal between Advani and the party leadership was brokered by the RSS. RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat spoke to Advani. A critical role in bringing Advani to an agreement was played by RSS protege and former BJP president Nitin Gadkari. Gadkari arrived in Delhi early in the morning. He reached Advani's residence and stayed there throughout the day, until the deal was finally struck.

Another part of the agreement could be a modification in the manner in which RSS-BJP relations are being managed. One of Advani's demands were supposedly that the influence of RSS leader Suresh Soni be checked. This suits Gadkari and Bhagwat as well as Soni had played a critical role in nixing the former's second term as BJP president.

The main grouse which prompted Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) patriarch L.K. Advani to resign on Monday is the influence the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) continues to wield in party affairs but his desperate act, ironically, ended up reinforcing the RSS's power over the BJP.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat personally intervened in the matter, which compelled Advani to kiss and make up with BJP president Rajnath Singh. From here on, Rajnath Singh will have to take Advani on board viz major decisions. This was communicated by Bhagwat to Rajnath. However, Advani might have been able to achieve a subtle change in the manner in which RSS-BJP relations are being managed.

Party sources reveal that even though Advani has been engaged in a tug-of-war with the RSS, his antipathy is particularly focused on a faction of the organisation headed by Suresh Soni who is currently number three in the Sangh hierarchy.

It is believed that Advani's discontent has been amplified over the past three months as party affairs are being dominated by a troika of Soni, his protege Ram Lal who is the BJP's general secretary (organisation), and Rajnath Singh, who is also known to be close to Soni. This troika has played a crucial role in Narendra Modi's rise within the party in the past few months.

Soni is said to have played a critical role in scuttling Advani's proposal of including Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the parliamentary board, as he had an old axe to grind with him.

Sources said that an unsaid aspect of the 'peace deal' between Advani, the RSS and the party leadership, is that Soni's wings will be clipped. This can be seen from the crucial role played by not just Bhagwat, but also his protégé Nitin Gadkari and RSS ideologue S Gurumurthy, in brokering the deal.

This could involve a repeat of a formula prepared by Gadkari during his presidency, whereby RSS-BJP relations are managed not just by Soni, but by a collegium which comprises RSS Sarkaryavah Suresh 'Bhaiyaji' Joshi and Sah Sarkaryavah Dattatreya Hosabale, in addition to Soni.

This arrangement could also bring about a subtle rapproachment between Advani on one hand and Bhagwat and Gadkari on the other.

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Jayalalithaa’s strategy may fetch CPI a Rajya Sabha seat

Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s advice to the CPI to contest for the sixth seat in the biennial election to the Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu is not without significance. Contrary to the perception that she had shut the doors on the Left by fielding five AIADMK candidates for six seats, political observers sense a clever strategy by which she can ensure the victory of a CPI candidate as well as of her party’s nominees. The strategy, however, depends on the DMK and the DMDK not coming together for Rajya Sabha polls.

Mr. T.S.R. Venkataramanan, a noted lawyer and former Congress MLA said that, in the absence of coordination between DMK and DMDK, Ms. Jayalalithaa can ensure the victory of all her five candidates and a CPI candidate by dividing the 180 MLAs in her fold [including 18 Left MLAs) equally to back all the six candidates. I think it is a master stroke.

The AIADMK has 151 votes. When the votes of its allies and the six dissident DMDK MLAs are included, the number will increase to 162. By bringing together the CPI and the CPI (M), which have 18 votes, she can raise the bloc’s strength to 180. Her numbers are likely to go up as some more DMDK MLAs, including K. Pandiarajan, elected from Virudhunagar constituency, are prepared to switch loyalty.

Mr. Venkataramanan, who had worked as an election agent for Jayanthi Natarajan in a Rajya Sabha poll in the 1980s, said there was no hard and fast rule that every candidate should get 34 votes. He said that, one has to get the maximum number of votes to get elected. If six candidates get 30 each, they will be declared elected. It will not happen if the DMK and the DMDK work together.

The DMK and the DMDK seemed to have got the wind of         Ms. Jayalalithaa’s strategy. A senior DMDK MLA said that, he hope our leader (Vijayakant) will not allow this to happen. I expect him to take an appropriate decision that will prevent the AIADMK from having a cakewalk in the RS polls. He said if the expected crossover of more DMDK legislators took place, he would certainly make a gesture towards the DMK. Though the DMK was keen on contesting the elections, it is not sure of support from the actor-turned-politician.

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Jaya shuts the door on allies

Jayalalithaa announces 5 candidates for RS

Jaya shuts the door on allies

As she has decided to go it alone in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa closed the door on the CPI which sought her support to elect its candidate to the Rajya Sabha. She named five AIADMK candidates for the forthcoming Rajya Sabha polls. Six vacancies are to be filled in this month’s biennial election.

But the moot point is whether her decision will bring together the Opposition parties, which have a combined strength of 72 members in the Assembly. Except the ruling AIADMK, none of the political parties has the strength to elect a candidate on its own to the Rajya Sabha. If these parties come together, the Opposition can make it difficult for the fifth AIADMK candidate to get elected if there are seven candidates in the fray for the six seats.

However, right now, it seems a very distant possibility as more legislators of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, led by actor Vijayakant, are expected to switch their loyalties to the ruling party. The AIADMK is comfortably positioned to win four of the six seats, but will be short of eight seats to elect the fifth member. A candidate needs 34 votes to win a seat.

The CPI had hoped that Ms Jayalalithaa would field only four candidates and would offer the AIADMK’s extra votes to its candidate. CPI general secretary S. Sudhakar Reddy, former general secretary A.B. Bardhan and national council secretary D. Raja, who sought re-nomination, were in Chennai recently, but could not get an appointment to meet her. Finally Mr Bardhan and Mr. Sudhakar Reddy met her at Delhi, but she had expressed her inability to support the CPI. She is said to have suggested to the CPI leadership that it could field its candidate for the sixth seat. The CPI has only eight members and its support will swell to 18, if the CPI(M)’s 10 seats are added.

            CPI (M) state secretary G. Ramakrishnan told that, the party stand on the RS polls will be taken when the State committee of the party meets on June 17. In the past, the CPI(M) has worked together with actor Vijayakant’s DMDK, which has 29 members in the Assembly. However, six dissident members are expected to vote for the AIADMK.

Mr. Vijayakant has so far not disclosed his stand on the RS polls and there is speculation that he may support a Left candidate. The DMK is also hoping to get the support from the actor-turned-politician, who is going through a political crisis. “But he is not approachable. He is also not creating any situation for us to send feelers,” said a DMK leader.

DMK’s former ally Congress has five members and it may not hesitate to vote for a DMK nominee. The PMK has a strength of three in the Assembly, but the party is likely to boycott the elections.

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Jaya rules out alliance in Lok Sabha poll

Jayalalithaa announces 5 candidates for Rajya Sabha

AIADMK resolves to win all 40 Lok Sabha Seats

Jayalalithaa rules out alliance for Lok Sabha poll

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa reiterated that her party would go it alone in the 2014 Lok Sabha general election and was aiming to secure all the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. But she described Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who was elevated as the Chairman of the Campaign Committee of the BJP, as her good friend and said her good wishes were always with him.

Talking to journalists in New Delhi after attending a meeting with the Union Planning Commission, Ms. Jayalalithaa, answering a question

On alliance she said: “I’ve already stated very clearly several times and I repeat in your (media) presence that my aim, the aim of the AIADMK, is to win all the 40 seats, 39 in Tamil Nadu and 1 in Puducherry. So where was the question of an alliance? Your question itself is redundant and infructuous”.

On the developments in the BJP, she said, “Whatever happened is purely an internal matter of the BJP. Politically, I don’t think it would be proper for me to make any kind of comment on it. But at a personal level, I will only say that Mr. Narendra Modi is a good friend of mine, my good wishes are always with him and whether he wins the election in Gujarat or whether he achieves an elevation in his own party, I am happy for him.”

On Rajya Sabha Polls:-  About the ensuing Rajya Sabha poll, for which she had already released names of her party candidates for five out of six seats, she said whatever she wanted to say had already been said in a statement. “I have nothing more to add”. She refused to comment on her meeting with CPI leaders A.B. Bardhan and D. Sudharakara Reddy here, who called on her to seek the AIADMK’s support for their candidate.

         Left leaders meet Jaya:- Mr. Bardhan merely told journalists after the meeting: “She (Ms. Jayalalithaa) told us she has declared (her candidates for) five seats and hopes to win those five. She wished us well for the election”. She also informed them that the AIADMK would not have many extra votes to share. “We will have to go back to our party and discuss the outcome of our meeting,” Mr. Bardhan said.

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Jayalalithaa announces 5 candidates for Rajya Sabha

Jayalalithaa blames PMK, warns of strict action

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa warned that her government would not tolerate violence, would take stringent action and show no mercy to those who instigated innocent people on communal lines for their selfish agenda. Replying to a special calling attention motion moved by the Opposition in the Assembly on violent incidents that took place in Marakkanam, the Chief Minister said she would invoke preventive detention laws against those who disturb harmony and peace in the society.

Vanniyar Sangam leader and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) floor leader Kaduvetti J. Guru, who had earlier abstained from attending the current session of the House, was present and expressed his points. But many of his remarks were expunged.

Violence broke out on April 25, the day of Chitra Pournami, when the PMK and Vanniyar Sangam organised youth festival in Mamallapuram. A Vanniyar Sangam vehicle allegedly hit a motorcycle, driven by a Dalit of Marakkanam. A mob set fire to the houses of six Dalits.

Besides announcing Rs. 25,000 each to the families of three persons who died in the incidents, the Chief Minister said green house would be constructed for the Dalits who houses were burnt by the violent mob.

Chief Minister Jayalalithaa held the organisers of the event responsible for the untoward incidents, alleging that they threw to the wind, the undertakings that had been given to the police and violated the law. Ms. Jayalalithaa said though the organisers were told to end the meeting by 10 pm, PMK founder S. Ramadoss addressed the gathering at 11.30 p.m.

She also added that, Mr. Ramadoss declared that he has started at 11.30 (p.m.) and dared the police to file case against him. His request has been accepted and we have filed a case. I hope he will be ready to face the punishment.

Ms. Jayalalithaa wondered how Dr. Ramadoss could guide the youth when there were posters in praise of sandalwood smuggler Veerappan and most of the participants were in a drunken mood. She asked, whether he wants the youth to follow Veerappan?... On one hand he is demanding total prohibition. But majority of the youths were in drunken mood.

The Chief Minister alleged that the ancient monuments in Mamallapuram were also not spared by the participants. She then went on to quote the report of the Superintending Archaeologist that “monuments have been subjected to virtual harassment by the local groups and public who have gained forceful entry.” “The monument has been exposed to vandalism and destruction”.

Ms. Jayalalithaa said though police denied permission to these events, the organisers approached the High Court and obtained permission by giving an undertaking to abide by the instructions of the police. She said , the High Court also granted permission without taking into account their background and antecedents.

The Tamil Nadu CM is 100% Right when she says “The High Court also granted permission without taking into account their background and antecedents,” she said.

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Jaya's full speech in TN Assembly on caste violence by PMK (in Tamil)

Akhilesh Singh Yadav meets Jayalalithaa

Raising speculation about the formation of a third front for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav made a surprise call on his Tamil Nadu counterpart and senior political leader J. Jayalalithaa at Chennai on April 22, 2013 (Monday).

The sudden meeting at the TN Secretariat here that was finalised only April 21, 2013 (Sunday) night gains importance in the light of Jayalalithaa’s open criticism of the BJP for not helping Tamil Nadu’s cause in getting its due share of water from the BJP-governed Karnataka and her allegation that the Centre stifled the Opposition-ruled states.

The SP leader held discussions with the AIADMK supremo at Fort St George for 23 minutes. Despite his promise in the morning that he would brief the media on their meeting, Yadav did not utter a word after the meeting. Jayalalithaa, who left within a few minutes, also did not speak to the media.

Sources said they had discussed the Centre’s “adamant” and “non-friendly” attitude towards non-Congress Chief Ministers. This could, perhaps, bring them under one umbrella in the run-up to the general polls.

Sources said Yadav had conveyed his keenness to meet Jayalalithaa ahead of his scheduled participation at a function organised by Pattali Makkal Katchi in Mamallapuram, near to Chennai.

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TN ahead for 2014 elections

The great ally bazaar-Indian Politics

Times Now channel - opinion poll

The UPA is likely to come a cropper in the next Lok Sabha elections with the Congress tally getting almost halved, but the NDA will gain relatively little from its primary rivals decline, according to an opinion poll released by Times Now channel (April 16, 2013).

The poll, done by CVoter for the TV channel, suggests that the biggest gainers could be regional parties like the SP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and YSR Congress, leaving them and others like the BSP, BJD and Left in a position to determine who forms the next government.

The poll projects the UPA in its current form to get just 128 seats, with the Congress winning only 113 compared to its 2009 tally of 206. The NDA is projected to win 184 seats, but that includes 19 seats for the JD(U) which seems most likely to walk out of the BJP-led alliance. If that is factored in, the NDA’s tally would be closer to 160, since the BJP too would presumably win fewer seats in Bihar contesting on its own. In short, both the UPA and the NDA would be well short of the halfway mark of 272, but the BJP would have the consolation of finishing as the single largest if the poll projections prove correct.

Another important caveat is that the poll was conducted between January and March and therefore may not have fully captured the impact (either way) of the hype surrounding Narendra Modi’s increasingly likely projection as the BJP’s PM candidate.

According to the poll, the SP will win 35 seats, TMC and AIADMK 27 each, Left and BSP 26 each, JD(U) 19, BJD 13 and the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress 12. These parties with almost 160 seats between them may well hold the key to government formation in that scenario.

For the Congress, the good news from the poll is that it is likely to gain significantly in Karnataka, winning 18 of the 28 seats compared to the six it won last time. But this gain could be more than offset by massive declines in Andhra (8 compared to 33), UP (6 against 21) and Rajasthan (8 versus 20) and minor losses elsewhere including in Maharashtra.

For the BJP, the gains and losses are projected to be much more modest in most states, except in Karnataka, where the party is estimated to get 7 seats against the 19 it won last time and in Rajasthan, where its tally is predicted to rise from 4 in 2009 to 17 in the next Lok Sabha elections. In Delhi, a 7-0 verdict for the Congress four years ago is projected to become a 6-1 win for the BJP this time.

The great ally bazaar - Indian politics

On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.

It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.

The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.

The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.

The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.

That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.

Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?

  

SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22

Going solo most likely 54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.

State: Uttar Pradesh

  

TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19

Going solo Highly Possible West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.

Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.

State: West Bengal

  

BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21

Going solo very likely 60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.

Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM

State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18

Going solo quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes

Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu

Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away

State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09

Going solo Highly possible Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.

Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll

State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20

Going solo possible but unlikely Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.

Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress

State: Bihar

   

YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02

Going solo Quite likely It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats

Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.

Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority

State: Andhra Pradesh

  

BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14

Going solo very likely The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.

Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha

Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress

State: Odisha