Showing posts with label BJD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BJD. Show all posts

Monday, June 10, 2013

Why Only Modi, Why Not Amma?


With mounting voices to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Sanjay Pinto lists ten points why he thinks the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa would make a better choice.
As  calibrated attempts to project Narendra Modi as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial mascot are in full swing, the ‘national’ media is yet to wake up to the possibility of a powerful leader down South being a contender for the crown. In the last few months, talk of a ‘dhoti clad’ PM from the South had been mooted at a literary function attended by politicians and film stars in Chennai; and later picked up and flogged in newspaper columns and on the social media. How about a ‘sari clad’ PM, South of the Vindhyas? Jayalalithaa has already made it clear that she would not have any trucks with either the Congress or the BJP. In the context of a third front, as an alternative to the Congress and BJP led alliances, the possibility of Modi’s good friend and the most powerful lady in Tamil Nadu – Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, emerging not just as a king maker but the queen herself in 2014 cannot be ruled out in India’s ever fluid political scenario. After HD Deve Gowda, who had a short stint as PM in the late nineties, and the late veteran Tamil Nadu Congress leader GK Moopanar who missed the bus with the United Front government, if Amma’s stars shine as they did in 2011, who knows, she may no longer have to send the State’s periodic ‘To Do’ lists to 7 Race Course Road but be able to address them herself!
A fractured mandate next year, or earlier, will make every small party and every seat count. If Jayalalithaa can solve her inherited power shortage to make her free mixies and grinders and laptops run in the next few months, a predicted score card of 30 seats may not be out of reach for the AIADMK. That will give her a huge bargaining chip and the gravitas to cobble together a coalition of like minded parties for a serious shot at Delhi’s corridors of power. Having supported political alliances in the past and even pulling down one of them, the lady from Poes Garden has ‘been there, done that’. Now it’s just a question of taking her clout at the Centre to the next level. I was among the first few journalists in the country to directly broach the subject of a Prime Ministerial inclination with Amma, a few years ago. Her repartee: “No comments. But thank you for the compliment” was interesting. Here’s why I think she will make a good PM.

1.   Jayalalithaa’s leadership qualities and acceptance among possible constituents of a third front is her biggest plus point. We’ve seen many leaders – from Chandrababu Naidu to Left bigwigs descend at her residence to announce Dr Abdul Kalam as their nominee for a second innings at Rashtrapati Bhavan in the previous election. Last year, she was first off the block in mooting the name of former Lok Sabha Speaker and tribal leader PA Sangma as the NDA backed Presidential nominee, with even BJP patriarch LK Advani  holding discussions with her at Fort St.George.
 2.   With friends across the political divide, forming a durable coalition and keeping the flock together may not be a tall order. With her excellent rapport with Samajwadi Party leader and UP CM Akhilesh Yadav and Left leaders like Prakash Karat, coupled with the TINA factor for other parties, perhaps even the Trinamool supremo – Mamata Didi may well accept Amma at the helm. A proven capacity to unite non Congress Chief Ministers over common grievances with the Centre is indicative of her hold over ruling parties in other States.
 3.    Much as she is called an ‘Iron Lady’, Jayalalithaa is known to have an amazing ability to convert her staunch critics and foes into lasting friends. I can never forget MDMK Chief Vaiko who was jailed by her under POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) for 18 months thundering outside the Vellore Prison on his release that he would fight the “fascist regime”. A few months later, he joined hands with Amma and remarked, “This is the finest moment in Tamil Nadu’s political history!” Even after boycotting the 2011 assembly poll because he felt short changed in seat allocation, Vaiko still regards Jayalalithaa as his sister.
 4.   By Indian political standards, 65 year old Jayalalithaa is relatively young. As a powerful regional leader with a brute majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly and her unassailable sway over her own party, she does not have to worry about internal squabbles that have haunted many Prime Ministers.
 5.   A tough and no nonsense approach to governance is what anyone who knows the State well will vouch for. Not afraid of cracking the whip – be it the elimination of the long pending Veerappan menace or the sacking of over a lakh government employees in her previous tenure or the recent handling of the anti Koodankulam protestors, soft pedalling is not an expression in Amma’s lexicon.
 6.   The ‘iron hand’ can also come with a velvet glove. Jayalalithaa seems to have mastered the art of populism (a term she doesn’t quite like, preferring to call it ‘welfare’ instead). Despite a debt of one lakh crore, she adroitly managed to start fulfilling her 2011 freebie election manifesto. In her third innings, she has demonstrated a willingness to reach out to various sections – minorities, caste groups and most importantly the poor. The ‘Amma Canteens’ that serve wholesome food at one rupee and\or a few rupees are a super hit, bigger than a Rajini blockbuster! With the same formula, placating States and allies when in the saddle, should be child’s play.
 7.   An unbiased observer will not fail to notice Jayalalithaa’s national outlook – whether it’s her firm stand against terror and on maintaining law and order or her  environmental policy or the pro nuclear energy stance, after doing her due diligence. Championing the cause of Tamils in Sri Lanka and her strong views on tackling terror, even in a possible Pakistan context, may augur well for a firm foreign policy.
 8.  ‘Tell me who your key officers are and I will tell you if you are a good leader’ can be the new age dictum in governance. Jayalalithaa’s choice of officers has always been spot on. Ask any retired bureaucrat who has served under her (if you think the serving ones will be biased in her favour) and they will fill you in with instances and concrete examples of her administrative acumen and her grasp over complex issues. Choosing a balanced Cabinet is crucial. Amma will pass that test.
 9.   The convent educated heroine turned political leader is suave, articulate and charming enough to even floor international dignitaries like Bill Gates and Hillary Clinton. Coming from the film industry, her communication skills are among the best in India’s political landscape. This was evident even during her Rajya Sabha years.
 10. You can judge a leader’s intellectual prowess by her or his press statements and conferences. Jayalalithaa’s knowledge of national and international affairs, economics and even law (her lawyers tell me that she is so clued in with even all the latest Supreme Court judgments) is impressive. A leader in the hot seat needs to understand the nitty gritty of a wide range of subjects. Not wanting in this department either.
 I’ve been a neutral political commentator all my life and will remain that way. But I don’t believe in denying anyone their due, even if it comes across as slanted. Jayalalithaa has it in her to aspire for the top job. She will, however, need to focus on the challenging task of suffering fools gladly and taking criticism, even if it’s not the constructive variety, in her stride. And yes, the outcome of the wealth case in a Bangalore Court will be crucial for the Chennai Super Queen to strike gold in national politics.

(Sanjay Pinto is a lawyer, columnist and former Resident Editor of NDTV)

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Opposition demands JPC Chairman P C Chacko's removal


Opposition and DMK members of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on 2G demanded the ouster of chairperson P.C. Chacko for being “highly partisan” and asked Speaker Meira Kumar to replace him with a new chief. The 15 Joint Parliamentary Committee members belonging to BJP, JD(U), AIADMK, DMK, Left parties, TMC, and BJD met the Speaker and expressed “no-confidence” in Mr. Chacko on grounds of “highly partisan, unfair and prejudicial” conduct as also leakage of the draft report. The JPC has 30 members, including Mr. Chacko.
Congress, NCP, BSP and SP are supporting the chairperson. Though SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has said prime accused A. Raja should have been called by the JPC as he wanted to depose, the party does not wish to go to the extent of seeking Mr. Chacko’s removal.
Amid opposition plans to corner the JPC Chairman over clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the much-talked about meeting of the panel to adopt the draft report was today postponed following death of a Lok Sabha member.
Mr. Chacko said that the new date would be announced indicating that it would be possible only next week as some members have expressed “inconvenience” if it is held on April 26, 2013.
The NDA members submitted one letter to the Speaker against Chacko while the other parties gave separate letters. In the letters — which were formulated by these parties in consultation with each other — the members expressed their anger at the manner in which Mr. Chacko conducted the proceedings. His behaviour has been “unfair, prejudicial and unbecoming of the post to which he was appointed”, the letters said.
Members alleged that Mr. Chacko has failed in his duty to lead the JPC to bring out the truth. “Instead he has used the JPC to conceal and subvert the truth,” the members said. They also alleged that the report was leaked to the media before they were given copies. Expressing “no-confidence” in Mr. Chacko, these members urged Ms. Meira Kumar to immediately replace him. The 15 members later said Ms. Kumar promised that she will look into their demand.
This action from the non-Congress members was precipitated due to the cancellation of April 25, 2013’s JPC meeting — due to the death of TMC MP Ambika Banerjee — in which the report was to be adopted. They had earlier planned to press for a vote on the draft report at Thursday’s JPC meeting. The draft report has given a clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.
CPI(M) to submit dissent note:- Meanwhile, CPI(M) said it would submit a note of dissent on the JPC report on 2G scam, saying the draft report prepared by its chairperson P.C. Chacko was “biased."
          Senior CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury, who is a JPC member said that, ‘my dissent note is ready and I will submit it at the meeting of the JPC when it is held next week. It is a detailed note which will give out the reasons why we disapprove the draft report, which is completely biased”. Without elaborating on the contents of his dissent note, he said “it will also act as an alternative report” on the 2G spectrum allocation scam. The draft has given a clean chit to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P Chidambaram.

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Thursday, April 11, 2013

The great ally bazaar - Indian politics


On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.
It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.
The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.
The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.
The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.
That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.
Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?
  
SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22
Going solo most likely
54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant
Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA
Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.
State: Uttar Pradesh
  
TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19
Going solo Highly Possible
West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.
Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.
Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.
Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.
State: West Bengal
  
BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21
Going solo very likely
60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.
Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.
Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM
State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18
Going solo quite likely
They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes
Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu
Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away
State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09
Going solo Highly possible
Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.
Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.
Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll
State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20
Going solo possible but unlikely
Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.
Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.
Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM
Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress
State: Bihar
   
YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02
Going solo Quite likely
It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats
Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.
Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority
State: Andhra Pradesh
  
BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14
Going solo very likely
The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.
Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha
Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress
State: Odisha