Times Now channel - opinion poll

The UPA is likely to come a cropper in the next Lok Sabha elections with the Congress tally getting almost halved, but the NDA will gain relatively little from its primary rivals decline, according to an opinion poll released by Times Now channel (April 16, 2013).

The poll, done by CVoter for the TV channel, suggests that the biggest gainers could be regional parties like the SP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and YSR Congress, leaving them and others like the BSP, BJD and Left in a position to determine who forms the next government.

The poll projects the UPA in its current form to get just 128 seats, with the Congress winning only 113 compared to its 2009 tally of 206. The NDA is projected to win 184 seats, but that includes 19 seats for the JD(U) which seems most likely to walk out of the BJP-led alliance. If that is factored in, the NDA’s tally would be closer to 160, since the BJP too would presumably win fewer seats in Bihar contesting on its own. In short, both the UPA and the NDA would be well short of the halfway mark of 272, but the BJP would have the consolation of finishing as the single largest if the poll projections prove correct.

Another important caveat is that the poll was conducted between January and March and therefore may not have fully captured the impact (either way) of the hype surrounding Narendra Modi’s increasingly likely projection as the BJP’s PM candidate.

According to the poll, the SP will win 35 seats, TMC and AIADMK 27 each, Left and BSP 26 each, JD(U) 19, BJD 13 and the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress 12. These parties with almost 160 seats between them may well hold the key to government formation in that scenario.

For the Congress, the good news from the poll is that it is likely to gain significantly in Karnataka, winning 18 of the 28 seats compared to the six it won last time. But this gain could be more than offset by massive declines in Andhra (8 compared to 33), UP (6 against 21) and Rajasthan (8 versus 20) and minor losses elsewhere including in Maharashtra.

For the BJP, the gains and losses are projected to be much more modest in most states, except in Karnataka, where the party is estimated to get 7 seats against the 19 it won last time and in Rajasthan, where its tally is predicted to rise from 4 in 2009 to 17 in the next Lok Sabha elections. In Delhi, a 7-0 verdict for the Congress four years ago is projected to become a 6-1 win for the BJP this time.