16 months in jail

Nearly 16 months after he was arrested by the CBI in the disproportionate assets case and packed off to Chanchalguda Jail, YSR Congress party chief Jaganmohan Reddy was granted bail by a trial court (Sep 23, 2013). The development is bound to alter the political scene in Andhra Pradesh — and specifically Seemandhra — bitterly divided over separate Telangana.

Although the CBI court granted bail before 5 pm, Jagan will be able to walk free only on next day as the papers couldn’t reach authorities on time. Jagan submitted two sureties of Rs 2 lakh each as conditions for release and is not to leave Hyderabad to prevent “influencing witnesses” in the case. However, Jagan plans to tour Seemandhra and is expected to file a memo in the court seeking permission to do so.

The YSR Congress, which was quiet on the Telangana issue until the Congress announced its intention to bifurcate the state on July 30, is pitching for united Andhra. Jagan has made it clear that the YSR Congress will focus only on Seemandhra, which would make it virtually non-existent in Telangana, with the few YSR Cong leaders now seeking their political fortunes elsewhere.

Party sources said Jagan’s plan, once the court gives the green signal, is to undertake a campaign in Seemandhra, which has 175 out of 294 assembly seats and 25 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. The party currently has 17 MLAs and sources said he has identified candidates for nearly 80% of the assembly and Lok Sabha seats. Analysts predict a fight in Seemandhra between the YSR Congress, the TDP and the Congress, with Jagan’s party likely to emerge as the single largest. In fact, it was TDP that feared his release the most, and did its best to foil his release from jail.

With the TDP left with no alternative but to ally with the BJP-led NDA, and the Congress-led UPA desperately seeking allies, the YSR Congress could come in handy for the Congress in a power-sharing deal by which Jagan can take charge as CM of Seemandhra and support the UPA at the Centre.

This way the Congress not only ensures it remains in power in Seemandhra, but also keeps Naidu out of power. In Telangana, the Congress in alliance with TRS can come to power. This way, the Congress will control both the states with its allies, giving it the much needed numbers in 2014.

At the moment, the YSR Congress is maintaining that it will have no truck with the Congress. But political compulsions and the fact that CBI cases against Jagan are far from over might force him to come to terms with the Congress.

It would make political sense for him to back UPA at the Centre even if he manages to secure a simple majority of his own in Seemandhra.