Jayalalithaa is Narendra Modi's trump card in NDA?

With the emergence of strong regional parties and the inevitability of coalition politics, the days of single-party majority in the Lok Sabha are over. Even if some kind of revival and rejuvenation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi’s leadership is anticipated, there seems to be no possibility of its being able to form a government on its own.

          As the capture of Delhi throne now largely depends on coalition politics, the saffron party is heavily banking on the Modi factor. The BJP PM-hopeful should look for new allies for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as the base of this formation has shrunk considerably since the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era. 

As of now, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee won’t take a chance to sacrifice the Muslim support base. Biiju Janata Dal supremeo Naveen Patnaik may not like to trade with the BJP again. Only a few regional players such as J Jayalalithaa and Raj Thackeray may be willing partners of the Hindutva poster boy.

The million dollar question is: will the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Modi's (Sep 26, 2013) rally at Tiruchirapalli (Trichy) change the political landscape in Tamil Nadu? Will the proposed rally push parties like the DMDK, MDMK and PMK towards the BJP for an alliance to fight the 2014 general elections? It will be premature to predict anything at this juncture. Modi will be addressing the Trichy rally from the dais designed like Delhi's Red Fort, as he did at his rally in Ambikapur in Chhattisgarh. The theme is (Trichy's) Rock Fort to Red Fort.

          Political observers feel that if the BJP doesn’t get at least 170-180 seats, it would not be in a position to attract allies. Last month, Modi sent out signals to the AIADMK boss to forge a formidable alliance in Tamil Nadu. Addressing a rally in Hyderabad, Modi praised Jayalalithaa — reverentially addressed her Dr Jayalalithaa — for her work in skill development that neighbour Andhra Pradesh, ‘ruled by the Congress’, lagged in.

          At present, the AIADMK has nine Lok Sabha MPs, but the number of seats may to go up in the state that sends 39 MPs to Parliament, according to various opinion poll surveys. In the Modi’s scheme of things, the AIADMK's support can compensate for the loss of Janata Dal (United), which has 20 Lok Sabha MPs at present.

          Modi was among a set of select leaders who had attended Jayalalithaa’s swearing-in as Chief Minister in 2011 and the AIADMK supremo had returned the favour by attending his swearing-in ceremony last year after he won his third term. BJP spin doctors view the party as a vital potential ally who could deliver at least 20-25 seats from the state, which could enhance the BJP’s chances of heading a coalition government.

          Till date, Jayalalithaa has shown no sign of converting her party’s working relationship with the BJP or her special friendship with Modi into a formal alliance in Tamil Nadu for the 2014 polls  for two reasons.

          In 2004, Jayalalithaa forged an alliance with the BJP, her front got routed and her foreigner diatribe against Sonia Gandhi failed to click. Also, if she aligns with the BJP, she will drive away other prospective allies like the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) who have a marginally better vote share than the BJP’s 1%. The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister would not want to lose the votes of Christians and Muslims in the state who each constitute approximately 6% of the population and vote almost en bloc.

          In the state, the truth is that the BJP needs the AIADMK more than the AIADMK needs the BJP. However, for tactical reasons, the AIADMK might not enter into an alliance with the BJP prior to the 2014 election, and will likely keep its options open for post-poll bargaining.

          Sensing the direction in which political winds are blowing, the former Tamil film star is aware that a formal tie-up with the BJP, with Modi as a prime ministerial hopeful, is likely to alienate the minority votes when the DMK is assembling a formidable front that includes her estranged ally Vijayakanth. The BJP is also exploring possibility to rope in Vijayakant-promoted DMDK to fight the 2014 elections. The DMDK has a proven vote share of around 10%.

          A friend she certainly is, but there are certain limits to the extent to which Modi can use his proximity with Jayalalithaa for the advancement of his own political career. Hard-nosed electoral arithmetic will eventually decide the shape and size of the NDA in 2014.