The situation in Andhra
Pradesh is much more complex with the Congress clearly on a downhill but no
other party seems to be capable of having a pan-state appeal. Telangana
issue remains very important with 55 per cent saying the stand on the issue of
the separate state will affect their decision of whom to vote for. Jagan
Mohan is the clear winner at 25 per cent votes for leading Andhra and 29
per cent feel that he is being falsely implicated while 34 per cent feel he is
corrupt.
The Congress vote share has
seen a seven per cent decline in vote share. The party will get the support of 32
per cent voters in 2013 compared to 39 in 2009. The BJP will have seven per
cent voters backing it as against only four per cent during the last Lok Sabha
elections. The YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan, which did not exist in 2009, will
bag 20 votes while the Telugu Desam Party of Chandababu Naidu has also seen an
eight percentage fall to 17 from 25 per cent in 2009. The Telangana Rashtra
Samithi is the other big gainer and the party's vote share will swell to 13 per
cent from six during the 2009 polls.
Andhra had virtually ensured
in 2009 that the Congress-led UPA would come back to power but in 2013 the
state is all set to give a huge shock to the ruling alliance. The Congress is
likely to see its tally drop from 33 seats to anything between 11 and 15 while
Jagan Mohan's party will also win 11-15 seats.
The TDP, which has six MPs in
the current Lok Sabha, may win 6-10 seats. The TRS will see its tally jump to 5-9
seats from two at present. Other smaller parties are likely to bag 0-4 seats.
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