We could end up with a Lok Sabha in which, for the first
time, the single largest party has less than one-fourth of the 543 seats and no
front has even a third. That is what would happen if elections were held now, according
to a Times Now-CVoter opinion poll. It projects that the NDA would win 156
seats with the BJP getting 131 of them, while the UPA would win 136 with the
Congress pegged to 119.
The poll estimated that the 'Third Front', which includes
the Left, Samajwadi Party, RJD, TDP, BJD and some other regional parties, would
win 129 seats and the 'Fourth Front' including the BSP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK
and others, would win 122. In short, the elections are projected to end up as a
fairly even four-way split, though some of these formations like the Third and
Fourth Fronts are not really firmly established, at least as of now, and others
may also morph in the coming months.
If the predictions come true, the SP, BSP, Left, AIADMK
and Trinamool would each have between 22 and 33 seats, possibly giving them a
crucial role in the formation of the next government in New Delhi
In Uttar Pradesh, the poll projects SP and BSP
between them winning three-fourths of the 80 seats in UP, with the SP picking
up 33 and the BSP 27. The Congress, which won 21 seats in the state in 2009, is
projected to win just five in 2014 and the BJP is estimated to gain just a
couple of seats to get 12.
In Maharashtra , it's
advantage NDA and bad news for Sharad Pawar's NCP, if the poll has got it right.
It estimates that the Shiv Sena will win 15 seats of the state's 48 seats and
the BJP 11, the same as the Congress. The NCP is projected to get just 6 seats,
Raj Thackeray's MNS opening its account with 3.
In Andhra Pradesh, a state in which the Congress won
33 of the 42 seats in 2009, the CVoter poll projects it will win a mere 7. Jagan
Reddy's YSR Congress, a party that didn't exist in 2009, is estimated to win 14
seats and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti 11, leaving just 7 for Chandrababu Naidu's
TDP. Of course, the AP numbers could change dramatically once the formation of
Telangana is announced, as expected soon.
In West Bengal , Mamata
Banerjee will continue to fly high despite her alliance with the Congress
having broken up since the last elections. The poll projects that the Trinamool
Congress will win 22 of the state's 42 seats and the Left will win 17, a gain
of two seats for each of them, while the Congress tally will drop from 6 to 2.
In Bihar , the
break-up between Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the BJP seems to be hurting the
former more. In fact, the poll projects that the BJP will emerge as the single
largest party in the state winning 14 of the 40 seats, Lalu Prasad's RJD coming
a close second with 12 and JD(U) in third place at 11.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is projected
to sweep, winning 29 of the state's 39 seats. The DMK, which won 18 seats last
time is expected to drop to a mere 5 and the Congress might have to settle for
a lone MP from the southern state.
In Madhya Pradesh, the projections show a fairly
close battle between the two national parties with the BJP winning 16 of the 29
seats and the Congress 12, leaving one for the BSP. That would be a repeat of
the 2009 results.
In Karnataka, on the other hand, the prediction is
for a near total reversal of the 2009 results. In those elections, the BJP had
won 19 of the 28 seats, giving the party its largest chunk of seats from any
state. The Congress had won a mere 6, the remaining 3 going to H D Deve Gowda's
JD(S). This time round, the poll predicts, the Congress will win 17, which
would make that the largest chunk of Congress MPs from any state, while the BJP
will get just 8 seats. The JD(S) tally will remain unchanged.
In Gujarat , not
surprisingly, the BJP is predicted to sweep, winning 21 of the state's 26 seats,
leaving just 5 for the Congress. This would also mean that the BJP would have
more Lok Sabha MPs from Narendra Modi's home state than from any other state.
In Rajasthan, where the Congress nearly swept in 2009,
winning 20 of the 25 seats, the estimates are that its tally could drop to 9 while
the BJP's tally could rise from 4 to 15.
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