Friday, January 31, 2014

Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, Deepika Padukone on list of world's most beautiful women

Indian actresses Aishwarya Rai Bachchan and Deepika Padukone are among the World's 30 Most Beautiful Women of 2014 in a poll conducted by the website Hollywoodbuzz. While Ash clinched the fourth position - after Italian actress Monica Belluci, model Kate Upton and Hollywood star Angelina Jolie - Deepika ranked 29 on the list.
A statement from an elated Ash read, "The results of this poll by Hollywood Buzz was brought to my notice in fact by my well-wishers whatsapping me, believe it or not, and I must admit it's overwhelming to hear that over 4 million people across the globe have voted and listed me amongst their top choices with such beautiful and talented women. I say a huge loving thank you to all my well-wishers (fans) for making me smile and always being there for me. More power to our love."

Ash and Deepika are the only Indian women to figure in the list which consists largely of Hollywood names including actresses Charlize Theron, Amber Heard, and Jennifer Lawrence. The list of 30 also includes musicians Beyonce, Katy Perry and Rihanna, with a sprinkling of models like Adriana Lima, Irina Shayk and Miranda Kerr.

The following are the names in the complete list:

1. Monica Bellucci
2. Kate Upton
3. Angelina Jolie
4. Aishwarya Rai Bachchan
5. Irina Shayk
6. Meryem Uzerli
7. Charlize Theron
8. Amber Heard
9. Rihanna
10. Scarlet Johansson
11. Megan Fox
12. Adriana Lima
13. Halle Berry
14. Eva Mendes
15. Miranda Kerr
16. Katy Perry
17. Amanda Seyfried
18. Olivia Wilde
19. Mila Kunis
20. Kristen Stewart
21. Kim Kardashian
22. Jennifer Lawrence
23. Taylor Swift
24. Haifa Wehbe
25. Beyonce
26. Candice Swanepoel
27. Jessica Alba
28. Anne Hathaway
29. Deepika Padukone
30. Fan Bingbing

Karunanidhi, Stalin did not greet me on my birthday, says Alagiri

M.K. Alagiri, elder son of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) president M. Karunanidhi said that, there is no possibility of compromise until the party unconditionally revokes its decision to dissolve the Madurai urban unit and the suspension of my loyalists.           Mr. Alagiri, who greeted people on his birthday, said his father and younger brother M.K. Stalin did not wish him on his birthday. After accepting wishes and gifts from the party cadre at Rajah Muthiah Mandram in Madurai, he told reporters that his mother and other relatives had greeted him.
When his loyalist and former MLA S.S. Ghouse Basha tried to downplay the issue by stating that Mr. Karunanidhi too called up to greet, Mr. Alagiri chided him saying: “Why are you lying?” Later, he turned back to the reporters to say: “No. He did not wish me at all.”

A procession from his house to the venue of celebrations led to traffic snarls. . as his cavalcade moved at a snail’s pace with scores of with people waiting all along the route to wish him on his birthday. At the venue, he cut a mega cake and distributed welfare assistance including tricycles to the physically challenged and sewing machines to destitute women. The backdrop on the dais had a picture of Mr. Karunanidhi feeding him a piece of cake. None of the party’s top brass attended the celebrations. MPs D. Napolean, K.P. Ramalingam and J.K. Ritheesh participated.
Meanwhile, Mr. Karunanidhi ruled out the possibility of revoking suspension of persons who were loyal to former Mr. Alagiri. Talking to pressmen in Chennai, Mr. Karunanidhi said: “After levelling serious allegations against party's District Secretary and executive members and made the police to take action against them under the SC and ST Prevention of Atrocities act, the party can not be a silent spectator.”

Andhra Pradesh Assembly rejected Telangana Bill

Amidst chaotic scenes, a resolution tabled by Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, rejected the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, 2013, was adopted by voice vote in the Assembly. The time set by President Pranab Mukherjee for the debate on the Bill ended.
Expectedly, there were noisy scenes and amid the din Speaker Nadendla Manohar put the resolution to voice vote, and declared that “ayes have it” and the motion was carried. All this happened in less than two minutes. He saw no reason to take up 10 non-official resolutions on the same subject.

Even as the Speaker was going through the motion, Telangana Rashtra Samiti members T. Harish Rao, Vinay Bhaskar and Sammaiah were involved in pushing and jostling with Seemandhra MLAs. With the adoption of the resolution, the bandh called by the TDP in Seemandhra gave way to celebrations at some places. In contrast, students burnt effigies of the Chief Minister.

Jaylalithaa must face trial - SC

In a major setback to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa (Prime Ministerial Candidate of 2014 Election), the Supreme Court cleared the decks for her prosecution, initiated by the Income Tax Department in the Additional Chief Metropolitan Court, Economic Offences-1, Egmore, Chennai, for non-filing of income tax returns during 1991-92 and 1992-93 by Sasi Enterprises and by herself as its partner for 1993-94.
A Bench of Justices K.S. Radhakrishnan and A.K. Sikri rejected her contention that non-filing of returns per se was not an offence as there was no income and no tax evasion, and directed the lower court to complete the trial in four months. If convicted, she will attract a minimum of three-month imprisonment or a maximum of three years and a fine, and the possibility of disqualification from the Assembly.
The Bench dismissed a batch of appeals filed by Ms. Jayalalithaa, her close aide N. Sasikalaa and Sasi Enterprises, of which both were partners, against a Madras High Court judgment that threw out their discharge petitions. The Income Tax Department instituted criminal proceedings in 1996 and 1997 against Ms. Jayalalithaa. Cases were also filed against Ms. Sasikalaa and Sasi Enterprises. The trial court dismissed their applications for discharge, and the High Court rejected appeals.

AIADMK and other parties play it down

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa is not expected to respond immediately to the ruling of the Supreme Court on her failure to file income tax returns. But senior AIADMK leaders made it amply clear that the order “will have no political bearing on the fortunes of our party or our leader.” “Amma has faced more serious political and legal battles, and this is nothing compared to them” is their refrain.
The crux of the argument of some advocates is that the case was pending trial and Ms. Jayalalithaa has not been held guilty by the court. The advocates are in mind that, mere failure to file I-T returns is more a technical offence than criminal, unless it is proved that there was a wilful attempt to avoid liability.
None of the major political parties has made this an issue. Even DMK president M. Karunanidhi refused to comment, saying it was a matter between the court and Ms. Jayalalithaa. The BJP and Left parties too do not want to comment on record or make much of the case. A BJP leader accused the UPA, and the Congress in particular, of trying to curb her ascendancy by clamping new cases.

V.S. Jayakumar, a senior advocate who handles I-T cases, pointed out that since the Income Tax Act came into existence in 1961, only three persons have been prosecuted in Tamil Nadu. Though the penal provisions Act prescribed imprisonment, such punishments are very rare. Senior advocate I. Subramanian is of the view that the case is more technical than criminal. The issue will become serious only when the failure to file I-T returns is to avoid liability and defraud the government.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Karuna writes to PM, seeks security for Stalin after Alagiri threat

The heightened war in the DMK between the two warring brothers MK Alagiri and MK Stalin is taking a new shape everyday. After the DMK expelled Alagiri from the party posts for speaking against his younger brother and heir apparent Stalin, an angry Alagiri allegedly told his father and the DMK chief M Karunanidhi that Stalin would die within three months.
Now, a worried Karunanidhi has requested the Prime Minister to provide adequate security to Stalin. According to sources, the DMK chief has sent a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seeking security for his younger son. Stalin issued a statement on Wednesday (Jan 29, 2014) saying those born will die someday and used DMK members to desist from burning effigies. "Anyone born will die someday. The cadre should focus on Trichy conference and elections," the statement read.
According reports Karunanidhi has no faith in the state police controlled by the AIADMK government of Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa.
On Tuesday (Jan 28, 2014), in a statement an upset Karunanidhi said, "Alagiri came to my house on 24th January and complained regarding Stalin and troubled me and used harsh words. Alagiri told me Stalin will die in 3 months. No father can tolerate such words against his son. I do not know why Alagiri has nurtured such hatred against Stalin for many years. Alagiri should have met me in person and spoken about any issues he had about his suspension. But he has been talking to the media. He is still under temporary suspension; party will take a call on expulsion."
Alagiri immediately reacted to the developments. Speaking to reporters in Madurai, Alagiri expressed shock over what Karunanidhi said about him. He said, "The tears of my father should fall on my dead body. I am shocked at the clarification by Karunanidhi."

Wishing his father a long life, he said, "The DMK president should live long. He has said that I behaved in a way that hurt him. He could have told this after suspending me from the party, the party cadres know about me. I respect my father. I have not done anything wrong. I will always stand behind my loyalists. I'm shocked to hear the statements my made by my father. All the charges against me are false. I have not told anything against my conscience. This is the gift from the DMK party on my birthday."
Alagiri's son Dhaya Alagiri also backed his father by taking on his grandfather for talking to the media about what Alagiri allegedly told him about Stalin. In a tweet, Dhaya said: "False accusations will not last long the truth will come out soon DEFINITELY didn't expect this from such a elderly leader."
The new development has come as a shock to the first family of DMK and its cadres across the state. Things are happening at a wrong time for the party. The DMK will be fighting a 'do or die' battle in the Lok Sabha elections due in April-May. According to ground reports the situation is not favouring the party. The ruling AIADMK led by the arch-rival J Jayalalithaa is expected to maintain its lead in the Lok Sabha polls. The DMK is desperately to trying to cobble up an alliance with actor Vijaykanth-led DMDK in the Lok Sabha polls.
DMK patriarch Karunanidhi is now being forced to take a stand and side with Stalin. The cadre is expecting him to lead the party in the elections. But, he is now too busy with sorting out his family problems.
Alagiri was expelled from all party positions after he openly revolted against the leadership of his younger brother Stalin. A few days before that some of his supporters were expelled from the party.
Stalin vs Alagiri fight is not new to Tamil Nadu politics. Karunanidhi's two sons have been against each other for a long time. Karunanidhi's decision to anoint Stalin as his successor has worsened the sibling rivalry in recent times.
While Alagiri has been DMK's southern commander lording over Madurai region, Stalin has been the leader of the DMK in north Tamil Nadu and the state capital Chennai. Even though Alagiri is a powerful leader in Southern Tamil Nadu with an iron grip over Madurai region, his abrasive ways have made him unpopular.
In an interview to Tamil channel Puthiya Thalaimurai a month ago, Alagiri had categorically denied accepting anyone other than his father Karunanidhi as the DMK leader. This is being seen in the light of the growing rift between Alagiri and Stalin.
Recently the Madurai unit of the DMK was disbanded by Stalin because of differences with Alagiri supporters. Alagiri, in the interview, had claimed that he was sidelined in the party but maintained that he would be quiet.
In 2009, a reluctant Alagiri was dispatched to New Delhi as a Union Minister by his father. Alagiri, who is fluent only in Tamil felt like a foreigner in Delhi, and started spending more time back home to keep an eye on the activities of Stalin.
Stalin who controls the DMK central units is wary of his elder brother and his political ambitions. He thinks that he is the only leader who can keep the DMK intact and relevant. He has also been a favourite of his father.
In 2007, a survey projecting Stalin as the most popular leader conducted by a Tamil daily 'Dinakaran' had led to a huge furore in Madurai. The newspaper office was set on fire and there were some deaths too.
A shocked Karunanidhi had mediated a truce between two sons. The reason for the fresh trouble is ticket distribution in the next Lok Sabha polls. Alagiri feels that he should be the final word as far southern TN is concerned. He is also angry over dissolution of the DMK's Madurai unit.
Over the years Stalin has been very assertive and Alagiri feels slighted. The sibling rivalry has also divided the DMK vertically. If Karunanidhi fails to mediate a truce between the two warring sons, the DMK will have to face huge challenge in the Lok Sabha polls. 

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Pamban Rail Bridge turns 100

The Pamban Rail Bridge (Official name is Annai Indira Gandhi Bridge) turns 100 years in 2014. Here is a detail on that wonder. The Pamban Bridge is a cantilever bridge on the Palk Strait which connects the town of Rameswaram on Pamban Island to mainland India. The bridge refers to both the road bridge and the cantilever railway bridge, though primarily it means the latter. Opened in 1914, it was India's first sea bridge, and was the longest sea bridge in India till 2010. The rail bridge is for the most part, a conventional bridge resting on concrete piers, but has a double leaf bascule section midway, which can be raised to let ships and barges pass through.

The railway bridge is 6,776 ft (2,065 m) and was opened for traffic in 1914. The railroad bridge is a still-functioning double-leaf bascule bridge section that can be raised to let ships pass under the bridge.

The bridge spans a 2 km-strait between mainland and island and is the only surface transport link between the two. This bridge, constructed by the Indians over a hundred years ago and still in good condition, is a marvel of engineering. Until recently, the bridge formed Pamban island's only link with the Indian mainland. Thousands of Hindu pilgrims on pilgrimage to the holy Hindu shrine of Rameswaram cross the bridge every day.
According to Dr Narayanan, the bridge is located at the "world's second highly corrosive environment", next to Miami, US, making the construction a challenging job. The location is also a cyclone-prone high wind velocity zone. This Bridge consist of 143 piers and the centre span is a Schrezers rolling type lift span. It's 220 ft (67 m) long and each of 100 tonnes.

Elections 2014

Monday, January 27, 2014

Australian Open 2014

2014 Padma Award Winners from Tamil Nadu

Padma Vibhushan – 0 (Nil)
Padma Bhushan – 3

Shri T. H. Vinayakram
Art – Ghatam Artist
Shri. Kamal Hassan
Art – Cinema
Shri. Vairamauthu
Literature and Education

Padma Shri – 6

Shri. Santosh Sivan
Art – Film
Dr. Ajay Kumar Parida
Science & Engineering
Ms. Mallita Srinivasan
Trade & Industry
Prof. (Dr.) Thenumgal Poulose Jacob
Medicine – Vascular Surgery
Prof. Hakim Syed Khaleefathullah
Medicine – Unani Medicine
Ms. Dipika Rebecca Pallikal
Sports – Squash

National Voters Day

The Election Commission of India celebrated the 4th National Voters Day (NVD) across the country on 25 January 2014. The theme for the 4th NVD is Ethical Voting. National Voters Day is started from 25 January 2011. NVD functions were held at more than 6.5 lakh locations across the country covering nearly all 8.5 lakh Polling Stations. Around 46000 Educational Institutions also celebrated National Voters Day.

Around 4867 Youth Voter Festivals have been held across the states to engage youth in the registration process. The National Function to mark the 4th National Voters’ Day was held at Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi.
25th January is also the foundation day of the Commission, which came into being on this day in 1950. The Commission’s objective through NVD is to increase enrolment of voters, especially of the newly eligible ones, to make universal adult suffrage a complete reality.
The National Voters Day is also utilized to spread awareness among voters regarding effective participation in the electoral process.
Register yourself, vote with pride – President:-
President Pranab Mukherjee urged citizens to register themselves as voters and vote with pride in every election. Addressing a function organised by the Election Commission to mark the National Voters’ Day, he said: “It is your fundamental right [to vote] and please exercise it. Through increased participation, the electoral process and democracy in India will continue to grow in strength and vibrancy.”
Enthusiastic participation of the people in the electoral process was the key to healthy democracy, he said. “The voter is, therefore, the central actor in any democratic election.” The EC’s efforts at enrolling voters had borne fruit. “It is evident from the increase in the number of voters from 76 crore in 2012 to close to 79 crore in 2013,” he said.
The President presented Elector’s Photo Identity Cards to some newly enrolled voters and gave away the national awards for the best electoral practices.
Chief Election Commissioner V.S. Sampath urged the corporate sector to help in voter education and awareness and include such matters in its Corporate Social Responsibility. The process of participative elections could be taken up as a national mission.

Somewhere in Rajasthan...

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Friday, January 24, 2014

Indians have no fishing rights around Katchatheevu: Centre tells in Court

The Centre submitted before the Madras High Court said that, Indian fishermen have no right to fish in and around Katchatheevu—the islet ceded to Sri Lanka—according to two bilateral pacts signed in 1974 and 1976. The Centre specified its stand in a counter affidavit when a PIL came up for hearing before the first bench comprising Chief Justice R K Agrawal and Justice K Ravichandrabaabu.
Ahead of scheduled talks between fisherfolk of the two countries, the Union government’s position is at variance with that taken by all  stakeholders in Tamil Nadu, who question the ceding of the islet and insist on fishermen’s rights to look for catch in that area. Sri Lanka’s sovereignty over Katchatheevu was a settled matter, the Centre maintained.
The PIL filed by L T A Peter Rayan, president, Fisherman Care, contended that External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s statement in Rajya Sabha, in response to a Calling Attention Notice of AIADMK MP V Maitreyan on the Sri Lankan Navy’s attacks on Indi­an fishermen, appeared to be in contravention of the 1974 agreement. Rayan said the agreement guaranteed rights to fishermen of both countries to enjoy traditional rights of fishing in each other’s waters.

The counter said that, Article 6 of the 1974 agreement does not confer fishing rights to Indian fishermen at Katchatheevu and only speaks of traditional rights of vessels, not fishermen. Thus, no rights of fishing in Lankan waters were bestowed under the 1974 and 1976 agreements. The Centre also informed the court that Wadge Bank, near Kaniyakumari, came within India’s Exclusive Econo­mic Zone—where India has sovereign rights on the area and its resources as per the 1976 agreement—while settling the issue of a maritime bounda­ry between India and Lanka. Also, under the 1974 and 1976 agreements, traditional rights only allowed access to fisherm­en to visit Katchatheevu to dry nets and rest—not for fishing rights in the area—and for pilgrims to attend the annual St Antony festival.

Big boost for saffron power: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll puts Narendra Modi in the lead in PM race

If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the BJP would create history by reaching a never before total. The India Today Group-CVoter Mood of the Nation Poll shows that the BJP could get up to 188 seats, and the NDA close to 220.
The Congress faces a meltdown. Keeping in mind that the poll was conducted before the AAP's 'anarchy' dharna in the Capital (between December 16 and January 16), it is projected to eat into the urban vote of both national parties. The Congress will be hit hardest in three-way fights. Even where it's a direct BJP-Congress battle or a Congress versus non-BJP, non-AAP fight, the Grand Old Party (GOP) faces a rout.

- The BJP is emerging as undisputed single largest party in India, crossing their previous best of 182 seats in 1999. In terms of vote share, it might just cross the psychologically important 30 per cent vote mark which has eluded the BJP all along. The real swing for the BJP is coming from the Hindi heartland, especially in the states where the contest is primarily bipolar between the Congress and the BJP. In states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Jharkhand the Congress meltdown is complete. Same is the case where a direct contest of UPA/NDA is on cards, including Maharashtra and Punjab. The face-savers for the Congress are just the two states of Karnataka and Assam.
- While the AAP effect seems to have given jitters to the BJP campaign in urban areas, the real side effect of the AAP could be a complete meltdown of the Congress. The GOP of India is staring at its worst ever defeat in electoral history and the probability of its tally getting below 100 is very high at the moment. As mentioned in the Congress vs BJP states, a similar meltdown is on cards even in the states where the BJP is nonexistent and a third option is the main contestant to the Congress. So in states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Jammu & Kashmir and Tamil Nadu the Congress is heading for a complete rout. The regional parties like the TMC, BJD, AIADMK, YSRCP, TRS and TDP apart from the Left Front are expected to gain big time at the expense of the Congress.
- In the battleground states of UP and Bihar, the headline is the emergence of the BJP and Narendra Modi after a gap of 15 years. Both these battleground states are going to witness a multi-cornered contest and the division of votes might result in a weird proportion of seats won with lesser number of votes polled. While Akhilesh Yadav and Nitish Kumar are putting up a brave face against all odds, chances are that the BJP rising might result in an equal upswing for Mayawati and Lalu Prasad in these states. In more than one way the states of UP and Bihar might eventually decide the race to 7 RCR.
- If elections are held today, on its current form the NDA will be about 60 seats short of the magic figure of 272. But if the Modi juggernaut sweeps the critical states of UP and Bihar, then this requirement might drastically drop to just about 30 seats, which is easy to cobble up as there will be many parties open and willing to join the Modi bandwagon. But if the pro-Modi sentiment gets entangled in the multi-cornered contest of UP and Bihar and doesn't yield enough result, then the regional players will become big time kingmakers, or may be king themselves.
- This might result in Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik, K. Chandrasekhar Rao and Jagan Reddy as the probable kingmakers as they will be controlling about 125 MPs between them. Of these, barring Naveen, everyone else is open to doing business with the Congress as well. So, the ambition of becoming the PM might not be a bad thing to start with. Keep an eye on Mayawati as she might get back with enough number as the third largest political party in India and if nothing works out, then she could be the compromise candidate in any form of combination.
-The BJP is gaining big time in UP and Bihar, and if this trend continues, then the BJP crossing 200 might be a possibility. In that case, Modi will need just one or two of these regional parties to cross the line. But in case the current projection go down, largely because of upswing of the AAP and a split in urban middle class votes, then the allies might come with all sort of terms and conditions. This might not augur well for Modi. With 180 plus seats the BJP could still dictate its own PM candidate, but insisting on Modi might not be pragmatic. In such a scenario the other faces within the BJP could get a chance, those who are seen "milder" and acceptable to the regional allies. The natural names to prop up are Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley. But the real dark horse in the race is Rajnath Singh, simply because he might be acceptable to all allies and most importantly, he carries the approval stamp of Nagpur.
- The AAP national vote share is coming out 8 per cent at the moment. This will fetch about 10 seats. It might replace the BSP and the CPI(M) as the third largest political party in India in terms of vote share. Their vote share will consist of largely three components. First part is the BSP votes outside Uttar Pradesh. The maximum impact of the AAP is in the NCR region and adjoining states of Delhi, including Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir apart from the Union Territory of Chandigarh. These are pre-cisely the areas where the BSP has scored votes big time over the last 20 odd years.
- The second component of the AAP votes is the urban middle class voters who are primarily anti-Congress. These voters will increase the cumulative vote share of the AAP in urban seats across India. The third component is the nonpolitical passive voter, which might go out to vote and increase the turnout and share of the AAP at large.
- Other than these areas, the AAP is not getting big time support in the rest of India, especially in rural areas at the moment. However, even with just an additional 5 per cent national swing, they can cross 30 seats in Parliament and unsettle the probable equations. However, it must be kept in mind that it's never the spread of the votes but the strategic concentration of votes which make you win the seats. The BJP in 1984 got approximately 8 per cent votes but ended up with just 2 seats. It was the strategic concentration and adjustment in 1989 which resulted in mere 9 per cent votes but an impressive 84 seats in Parliament. Similarly, the BSP became the third largest political party in India years back in terms of vote share. But it is the inability to concentrate which made it impossible for them to win seats outside Uttar Pradesh. In other words, the AAP phenomenon is largely like the BSP phenomenon. Like the BSP is concentrated in Uttar Pradesh, the AAP will be concentrated in Delhi and the adjoining NCR seats. Outside this "ground zero" they will gain votes like the BSP has been doing in the last 20 years but the number of such votes will not cross the "threshold" to convert into seats big time.

- If the upswing for the AAP, however, continues to gather momentum across middle class and urban areas and this manages additional national swing of 10 per cent votes, it might very well take them within striking distance of eclipsing the Congress. This has more to do with the Congress meltdown in terms of seats across India. However; this certainly is a herculean task given the fact that the AAP wave is largely a middleclass and urban phenomenon, that too mostly in adjoining regions of Delhi NCR. On the other hand, regardless of the downswing across India, the worst ever the Congress fared in terms of vote share still remains approximately 20 per cent. This is its core support base. Almost every fifth Indian will still vote for the Congress in its worst possible hour. This is an extremely important finding because to bounce back in future, this is the core support base that any party counts on. From that perspective, the task of Rahul Gandhi to revive the Congress from scratch seems not that difficult. The seats tally might look depressing for the Congress, but it's in the votes that the future of the party is to be seen. As they say one week is a long time in politics, and we are still 12 weeks away from the polls.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

CCN-IBN Poll tracker

 The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pulled ahead of the Congress following its superlative performance in West and Central India. The Narendra Modi-led party is likely to emerge as the single largest unit after the next Lok Sabha elections as it is expected to sweep Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and score a big win in Maharashtra.
But the surveys of East, South and West/Central India show regional and smaller parties winning the largest number of seats and they could hold the key to the next government formation.
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala together account for 335 Lok Sabha seats. If we combine the above states, the BJP seems to have the huge lead as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll in the western and central regions of the country where the Narendra Modi wave is sweeping the political landscape.
Adding up the seat projections of East, South, West/Central India as provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, regional/smaller parties seems to be holding the ace in the Lok Sabha elections as they are likely to win 107-195 seats.
With Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra going to the BJP, the party is expected to win 90-125 seats from the three regions of the country while the Congress tally is likely to be 50-101. It clearly shows that if Narendra Modi wants to become the PM, the BJP will have to sweep North India.
As expected the BJP is doing extremely well in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra (with its allies Shiva Sena and Republican Party of India (Athvale)) and is a major player in Karnataka. But it has a very small footprint Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The party (BJP) is almost non-existent in Kerala.
Another national party the Congress is not doing well in most of the states with only Karnataka and Kerala giving it thumbs up. Most of the states have a strong regional party who are likely to play a crucial role in government formation after the next Lok Sabha elections.
For Jharkhand and Assam, both with 14 Lok Sabha MPs each, and Chhattisgarh 11 there is no seat projection due to the small sample size. While the BJP is likely to get 40 per cent of the votes in Jharkhand and 50 per cent in Chhattisgarh to lead its rivals by a huge margin, in Assam it is the Congress which will get 47 per cent of the votes per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
Total 335 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala (Region wise combined projected seats):

Seat  Projection
BJP + Shiv Sena
Congress + NCP
Trinamool Congress
YSR Congress
Left Front
JD (U)