Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Times Now & C Voters - Opinion Poll

We could end up with a Lok Sabha in which, for the first time, the single largest party has less than one-fourth of the 543 seats and no front has even a third. That is what would happen if elections were held now, according to a Times Now-CVoter opinion poll. It projects that the NDA would win 156 seats with the BJP getting 131 of them, while the UPA would win 136 with the Congress pegged to 119.
The poll estimated that the 'Third Front', which includes the Left, Samajwadi Party, RJD, TDP, BJD and some other regional parties, would win 129 seats and the 'Fourth Front' including the BSP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and others, would win 122. In short, the elections are projected to end up as a fairly even four-way split, though some of these formations like the Third and Fourth Fronts are not really firmly established, at least as of now, and others may also morph in the coming months.
If the predictions come true, the SP, BSP, Left, AIADMK and Trinamool would each have between 22 and 33 seats, possibly giving them a crucial role in the formation of the next government in New Delhi. With the two big national parties put together not winning even half of the seats, the regional bosses would really be able to call the shots in such a scenario.



In Uttar Pradesh, the poll projects SP and BSP between them winning three-fourths of the 80 seats in UP, with the SP picking up 33 and the BSP 27. The Congress, which won 21 seats in the state in 2009, is projected to win just five in 2014 and the BJP is estimated to gain just a couple of seats to get 12.
In Maharashtra, it's advantage NDA and bad news for Sharad Pawar's NCP, if the poll has got it right. It estimates that the Shiv Sena will win 15 seats of the state's 48 seats and the BJP 11, the same as the Congress. The NCP is projected to get just 6 seats, Raj Thackeray's MNS opening its account with 3.
In Andhra Pradesh, a state in which the Congress won 33 of the 42 seats in 2009, the CVoter poll projects it will win a mere 7. Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress, a party that didn't exist in 2009, is estimated to win 14 seats and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti 11, leaving just 7 for Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Of course, the AP numbers could change dramatically once the formation of Telangana is announced, as expected soon.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will continue to fly high despite her alliance with the Congress having broken up since the last elections. The poll projects that the Trinamool Congress will win 22 of the state's 42 seats and the Left will win 17, a gain of two seats for each of them, while the Congress tally will drop from 6 to 2.
In Bihar, the break-up between Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the BJP seems to be hurting the former more. In fact, the poll projects that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the state winning 14 of the 40 seats, Lalu Prasad's RJD coming a close second with 12 and JD(U) in third place at 11.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is projected to sweep, winning 29 of the state's 39 seats. The DMK, which won 18 seats last time is expected to drop to a mere 5 and the Congress might have to settle for a lone MP from the southern state.
In Madhya Pradesh, the projections show a fairly close battle between the two national parties with the BJP winning 16 of the 29 seats and the Congress 12, leaving one for the BSP. That would be a repeat of the 2009 results.
In Karnataka, on the other hand, the prediction is for a near total reversal of the 2009 results. In those elections, the BJP had won 19 of the 28 seats, giving the party its largest chunk of seats from any state. The Congress had won a mere 6, the remaining 3 going to H D Deve Gowda's JD(S). This time round, the poll predicts, the Congress will win 17, which would make that the largest chunk of Congress MPs from any state, while the BJP will get just 8 seats. The JD(S) tally will remain unchanged.
In Gujarat, not surprisingly, the BJP is predicted to sweep, winning 21 of the state's 26 seats, leaving just 5 for the Congress. This would also mean that the BJP would have more Lok Sabha MPs from Narendra Modi's home state than from any other state.
In Rajasthan, where the Congress nearly swept in 2009, winning 20 of the 25 seats, the estimates are that its tally could drop to 9 while the BJP's tally could rise from 4 to 15.

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Monday, July 29, 2013

Sushma Swaraj roars for 'Freedom from Congress'


With turban, posters of lions, Sushma Swaraj roars for 'Freedom from Congress'
BJP leader Sushma Swaraj , credited with being a powerful orator, used a party function in Delhi today to tell women from her party what she wants from them. Wearing a saffron turban and with a large poster of roaring lions in the background, she said, "We couldn't be part of the freedom struggle, we were born after 1947, but now be part of the freedom from Congress battle".
          She declared that, "The Rani of Jhansi fought to liberate India from the British. Today, we women will fight to liberate India from Congress".  Ms. Swaraj is among the opposition's big hitters, and is widely seen as someone whose chances at winning her party's prime ministerial nomination have been somewhat muted by the recent ascension of Narendra Modi from Gujarat to the national political landscape.


The 61-year-old is Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, and is close to BJP veteran LK Advani, who resisted June's move to make Mr. Modi the leader in charge of the party's election campaign. Mr. Uddhav Thackeray, president of the Shiv Sena, which is one of the BJP's oldest ally, had said recently that his party would prefer to see Ms. Swaraj as the opposition's choice for presumptive prime minister.
Mr. Modi, who is in his fourth term as Gujarat Chief Minister, is accused by detractors of failing to do enough to stop the communal riots in 2002 which killed hundreds of Muslims in his state. He recently said that he is satisfied that his administration and he had expended their best efforts in trying to stop the violence.

His critics within the party - and allies like Mr. Thackeray -feel that the blot of the riots makes Mr. Modi an unviable partner for regional parties who lean on Muslim voters. Without them, the opposition coalition fronted by the BJP - the National Democratic Alliance or NDA - may find it tough to pose a muscular challenge to the incumbent coalition anchored by the Congress.


IAS பயிற்சி மோசடிகள்

(குமுதம் ரிப்போர்ட்டர் நாளிதழில் வெளிவந்தது.....)

     IAS, IPS, பதவிகளுக்கான சிவில் சர்வீஸ் தேர்வு எழுத வேண்டுமானால் முறையான பயிற்சி அவசியம். இதற்கென அரசு தரப்பில் இலவச பயிற்சி மையங்களில் பயிற்சி அளிக்கப்படுகிறது. இருப்பினும் இதில் பணம் கொழிப்பதால் புற்றீசல் போல முளைக்கத் தொடங்கியிருக்கின்றன தனியார் பயிற்சி மையங்கள். சமீப காலமாக தமிழக இளைஞர்கள் அதிக அளவில் சேர்வது அதிகரித்து வரும் நிலையில், பயிற்சி மையங்களில் தரம் குறைந்து பணம், பப்ளிசிட்டி, பாலிடிக்ஸ் புகுந்திருப்பதாகக் குமுறுகிறார்கள் IAS, IPS கனவில் இருப்பவர்கள்.
     கடந்தாண்டு சிவில் சர்வீஸ் தேர்வில் பாஸாகி, IRS பணி கிடைத்திருக்கம் இளைஞர் ஒருவர் இதுபோன்ற பயிற்சி மையங்கள் எப்படியெல்லாம் கோல்மால் வேலைகளைச் செய்கின்றன என்பதை புட்டுப் புட்டு வைக்கிறார்.
     இந்தியா முழுவதும் வருசத்துக்கு அதிகபட்சம் ஆயிரம் பேர் தேர்ந்தெடுக்கப்படுறாங்க. தமிழ்நாட்டுல இருந்து தோராயமா 100 பேர் இருக்கலாம். ஆனா ரிசல்ட் வர்றப்ப, ஒவ்வொரு இன்ஸ்டிடியூட சார்பாகவும் 50 பேர், 60 பேர் பாஸான விளம்பரம் தர்றாங்க. தனியார் பயிற்சி மையங்கள் இப்படிக் கொடுக்கிற புள்ளி விவரங்களைக் கூட்டிப் பார்த்தால் அதன் எண்ணிக்கை தமிழ்நாட்டுல இருந்தே 500 பேரைத் தாண்டும். இதுதான் பக்கா பிசினஸ் ஐடியா. ஒரு இன்ஸ்டிடியூட்ல சேர்ந்து ஒரு மாசம் படிச்ச ஒருத்தர், அங்க சரியா சொல்லிக் கொடுக்கலை-ன்னு இன்னொரு இன்ஸ்டிடியூட்ல சேர்ந்து படிச்சு பாஸாகிட்டா, அவரோட வெற்றியை ரெண்டு மையங்களுமே உரிமை கொண்டாடுறாங்க. அடுத்து, டெல்லியில் படிச்சவங்க பெயரையும் சேர்த்துக்கறாங்க. இது ஒரு விஷயமான்னு கேக்கலாம், இதுல இருந்துதான் அவங்களோட பணம் பிடுங்கும் வேலை ஆரம்பிக்குது. ஜெயித்த மாணவர்கள்னு பெரிய லிஸ்ட்டைக் காட்டி விளம்பரம் கொடுக்கிறப்ப, IAS ஆர்வமுள்ள இளைஞர்கள் அதிக அளவுல இங்க வந்து சேருவாங்க. ஒரு இன்ஸ்டிடியூட்ல 100 பேர் சேர்றாங்கண்ணா பிரிலிமினரி, மெயின், இண்டர்வியூ முடிச்சு செலக்ட் ஆகிறவங்க 15 முதல் 20 பேர்தான் இருக்கும். அவங்களோட வெற்றியில 10%-தான் இன்ஸ்டிடியூட்டோட பங்கு. மீதி முழுக்க முழுக்க அவங்களோட சொந்த உழைப்புதான். இந்த 10% பங்களிப்பைதான் பிரமாண்டமா காட்டி, அதிகக் கட்டணம் வசூலிச்சு, காசை அள்ளுகினறன் தனியார் பயிற்சி மையங்கள். மூன்று நிலைக்கும் சேர்த்து சில நிறுவனங்கள் ஒன்றரை லட்சம் வரை பயிற்சிக் கட்டணமாக வாங்குகின்றன. புத்தகங்களை நாமதான் வாங்கிக்கணும். பணம் கொட்டுறதால அனுபவம் வாய்ந்தவங்க இன்ஸ்டிடியூட் ஆரம்பிச்சது போய் அரசியல்வாதிகளும் அதிகாரிகளும், ரியல் எஸ்டேட் புள்ளிகளும்கூட இதில் வந்துட்டாங்க. இவங்களோட பிசினஸ் போட்டியில் பாதிக்கப்படுறது, அப்பாவி இளைஞர்கள் தான்.
     சில தனியார் பயிற்சி மையங்களைத் தொடர்பு கொண்டு பேசினோம், எக்ஸாம் டிப்ஸ் என்றால் பேசலாம்; மற்ற விஷயங்களைப் பேச விரும்பவில்லை என எந்த கேள்விக்கும் பதில் அளிக்க மறுத்து விட்டார்கள்.
     ரிசல்ட் திருட்டைத் தாண்டி தங்களிடம் படித்து தேர்வாகிய பெரிய பதவிகளில் அமர்பவர்களை மட்டுமின்றி, சில நேரங்களில் கவர்னரயே அழைத்து வந்து விழாக்கள் நடத்தி அதன் மூலம் இந்த நிறுவனங்கள்  விளம்பரம் தேடிக் கொள்வதாகச் சொல்லப்படுகிறது. அண்மையில் தொடங்கப்பட்டு போட்டித் தேர்வு லைனில் எந்த அனுபவமுமில்லாத ஒரு பயிற்சி மையம் மூன்றே மாதத்தில் அறுபது லட்சம் வரைக்கும் விளம்பரத்துக்குச் செலவு செய்திருக்கிறதாம்.
     தற்போது சென்னையில் மட்டும் 70-க்கும் மேற்பட்ட பயிற்சி மையங்கள் இருக்கின்றன. இவற்றில் அண்ணா நகரைச் சுற்றியே 50 மையங்கள் உள்ளன. பயிற்சி தருபவர்கள், வகுப்பறை வசதி, ஓரளவு ரிசல்ட் எனப் பார்த்தால், மூன்று அல்லது நான்கு மையங்களே தரமானவை என்று சொல்லப்படுகிறது.
(குமுதம் ரிப்போர்ட்டர் நாளிதழில் வெளிவந்தது.....)


Saturday, July 27, 2013

AIIMS doctor examine Mrs. Dayalu Karunanidhi

A four-member AIIMS team constituted on the directions of Supreme Court examined DMK chief M. Karunanidhi’s wife Dayalu Ammal in Chennai to ascertain whether she was medically fit to depose before the special CBI court in Delhi as a witness in the 2G spectrum allocation scam case. The team of doctors from the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences in Delhi examined the 82-year old Ammal for about two hours at her Gopalapuram residence in Chennai.
Hearing a plea by Ms. Ammal’s daughter Selvi seeking a direction to exempt her mother from appearing before the trial court as prosecution witness on medical ground, the Supreme Court on July 10 directed the AIIMS Director to constitute a medical board to examine her to assess her condition.


Ms. Selvi had contended that Ms. Dayalu had been diagnosed with cognitive and behavioural abnormalities in June 2012 and that she was progressively and gradually losing recognition of even her near and dear ones.
Earlier, the special CBI court had on May 31 dismissed Ms. Ammal’s exemption plea, saying she is an “important witness” as she was a director in Kalaignar TV Pvt Ltd in which an alleged bribe amount of Rs 200 crore was received.

Mr. Karunanidhi’s daugther and DMK Rajya Sabha member Kanimozhi is one of the accused in the case.

2013 Election Tracker Survey: most imp issue for 2014




See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh



See Also:-

2013 Election Tracker Survey: vote shares

Coming to the big numbers, the survey shows that the BJP-led NDA is clearly on the upswing with the Congress and its allies taking a big hit. While the Congress is likely to see its vote share drop to 28 per cent in July 2013 from 29 in 2009, it allies are the bigger losers and will see a drop by seven per cent in their vote share from eight per cent in 2009.
On the other hand the BJP will get eight per cent more votes than the party got in 2009. If elections are held in July 2013 then the BJP will get 27 per cent votes against just 19 per cent that the party bagged in 2009. But its allies are not on an easy wicket and will see a three percentage drop to just two per cent in 2013. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stays at six per cent while the Samajwadi Party (SP) will gain one per cent to climb to four in July 2013 with the Left Front coming down to six from eight per cent votes in 2009.
So the UPA is likely to get 29 per cent of votes in July 2013 compared to 36 in 2009 while the NDA jumps to 29 from 24 per cent in 2009. The other parties gain two per cent and will get 42 per cent of the votes now.
Based on the vote share, the seat projection does not present a very rosy picture for the UPA. If the Lok Sabha election is held in July 2013, then the UPA will win 149-157 seats, the NDA 172-180, BSP 15-19, the Left Front 22-28 and the Samajwadi Party 17-21. The other smaller parties, who could prove to be very crucial in the next government formation, could end up with a huge bloc of 147-155 seats.
In the UPA, the Congress will bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could bring another 13-19 MPs.
Regional parties who will in all probability play a crucial role in the next government's formation are likely to come up with a huge contingent of MPs. The Trinamool Congress will win 23-27 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 16-20, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) 15-19, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 12-16, YSR Congress 11-15, Rashtriya Janata Dal 8-12, Telugu Desam Party 6-10 and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi 5-9 seats.
The Congress is down or barely holding on to categories among whom it had gained and done well in 2009 and gained further in 2011 while the BJP's recovery among its traditional voters among whom it had lost support in 2009, continues.
Overall, across the country and across all regions, there is a fairly high anti-incumbency against the UPA government with satisfaction with performance of BJP MPs greater than with that of Congress MPs. Another major plus for the BJP is that the party is seen as winning by most people in all regions except for South India.
When people were asked which party was likely to win in the next Lok Sabha elections from your constituency, 21 per cent said BJP and 18 per cent took Congress's name. The gap between the BJP and Congress on this question is widest in Central India.
Overall, Congress is viewed by the people as being slightly better than the BJP on the issue of good leadership, running a coalition government at the Centre and for maintaining religious harmony. The BJP on the other hand is seen as being better than the Congress for providing good governance, curbing corruption, handling economic crises and countering terrorism. On the issue of corruption, a large proportion of the respondents also felt that both parties are incapable of curbing it.
When people were asked what will be the single most important issue for them when they vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, 12 per cent gave answers related to development and economy, 11 per cent said price rise and 10 per cent gave responses related to governance. Nine per cent said leadership will be the main issue. Corruption as an issue was mentioned by just 6 per cent of the respondents. But the responses of the people vary from region to region. The main issue in North and West India seems to be price rise whereas in South India it is governance. In Central India it is leadership and in East India it is development.
Across socio-economic categories, development and price rise seem to be the most important voting issues for the people. Among housewives, price rise is the biggest issue at 15 per cent. Among the poor, young voters and Muslims development is a big issue apart from price rise. (Most important issue for 2014 election)

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2013 Election Tracker Survey: Performance of UPA


But the UPA government has a lot to worry too as the survey shows that those satisfied with its performance falling from 49 per cent in 2011 to 38 per cent now. The dissatisfaction level has gone up from 31 per cent in 2011 to 40 per cent in 2013. The dissatisfaction level with the UPA is spread across the country - metros (40 per cent), towns (42 per cent) and rural areas (39 per cent).

According to the survey, under the UPA regime 81 per cent say prices have risen, 69 per cent say corruption has increased, 51 per cent say terrorism is up while 45 per cent say that the rich-poor divide has increased.

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2103 Election Tracker Survey: Race for next PM

The Election Tracker survey reveals that Modi with 19 per cent of the votes is ahead in the prime minister's race followed by Rahul Gandhi with 12 per cent, Manmohan Singh (6 per cent), Sonia Gandhi (5 per cent), Mayawati (3 per cent) and BJP patriarch LK Advani (2 per cent). The figures are a major turnaround from 2009 when Modi had the support of just 2 per cent of the voters with Manmohan Singh leading with 18 per cent. Advani (15 per cent), Sonia Gandhi (16 per cent), Rahul (6 per cent) and Mayawati (5 per cent) were all much ahead of the Gujarat Chief Minister.
In the race between Modi and Rahul, the former is ahead with 33 per cent votes compared to 31 per cent for the Congress leader. Modi is more popular than Rahul in North India (37 per cent vs 29 per cent), Central India (41 per cent vs 33 per cent), West India (43 per cent vs 33 per cent) and East India (34 per cent vs 30 per cent).
But Rahul with 37 per cent leads Modi, who has 17 per cent of the votes, in South India. Rahul (45 per cent) is also more popular that Modi (18 per cent) amongst Muslim voters. Sixty-six per cent Congress supporters want Rahul to be projected as the prime ministerial candidate while 79 per cent BJP supporters want Modi to be projected for the post.


While current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is considered to be an honest leader by 25 per cent of those surveyed, 14 per cent say he has little control over decisions and nine per cent say that he has allowed corruption to flourish. The satisfaction level with his regime has fallen to 49 per cent in July 2013 from 56 per cent two years ago. There is a sliver lining too with Manmohan still the most liked among top leaders with 63 per cent votes followed by Rahul Gandhi (56 per cent) and Modi (54 per cent).

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2013 Election tracker Survey: Final Tally

With the next Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in early 2014, the parties have started to fine tune their strategies for the same. While the two big political formations - the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - are trying to come out with a comprehensive election strategy, the CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu Election Tracker survey shows that the 2014 Lok Sabha election is going to throw up a fractured mandate with neither of two coming anywhere close to the half-way mark of 272 in the 545-member Lok Sabha which has two nominated members.
The smaller battle to become the next prime minister of India too is being hotly contested and could have a major bearing on who gets to rule India after the election. With a section of the Congress leadership keen on projecting party Vice President Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate, the BJP is banking on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been elevated as the party's election campaign committee chief, on delivering the goods and taking it to power after a decade in the opposition.
Modi's elevation has already stirred a controversy with his critics and rivals alleging that his inaction during the 2002 riots in Gujarat show that he is not capable to be the prime minister of a diversified and pluralistic country like India. But the Gujarat Chief Minister's supporters point to the pace of development in the state to claim that only he can ensure that India becomes an economic superpower.

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Friday, July 26, 2013

Tirumala (Andhra) - tops in Domestic Tourist destination

With the Tirumala Balaji Temple attracting visitors in hordes, Andhra Pradesh has become the top tourist destination, in the country recording 206.8 million domestic tourists last year. Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh stood second and third, with 184.1 million and 168.4 million domestic tourists.
Tamil Nadu occupied the second slot in the country in terms of domestic as well as foreign arrivals by attracting over 18.77 crore tourists during 2012, a 34% jump over the previous year, when it played host to 14 crore people. Interestingly, Andhra Pradesh led the pack in domestic tourists with 20.68 crore arrivals, but did not make it to the top 10 States in receiving foreign nationals.
Maharashtra was favourite among foreign tourists with 51 lakh arrivals, whereas it attracted 6.63 crore domestic visitors. Tamil Nadu rose from the third rank in domestic arrivals in 2011 to second slot by replacing Uttar Pradesh, which has moved down from the first position to third with the arrival of 16.8 crore visitors.

#
Domestic tourists arrivals
Foreign tourists arrivals
1
Andhra Pradesh
Maharashtra
2
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
3
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
4
Karnataka
Rajasthan
5
Maharashtra
Delhi
6
Madhya Pradesh
West Bengal
7
Rajasthan
Karnataka
8
Uttarakhand
Goa
9
Gujarat
Kerala
10
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
  The top 10 States in terms of domestic arrivals contributed 84.5% of domestic tourists’ arrivals in 2012. Tamil Nadu, New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Bihar attracted over one million foreign tourists in 2012. The top 10 States attracted 90% of total foreign tourists into the country.
Performance of Tamil Nadu:- 
Tamil Nadu occupied the second slot in the country in terms of domestic as well as foreign arrivals by attracting over 18.77 crore tourists during 2012, a 34% jump over the previous year, when it played host to 14 crore people. Interestingly, Andhra Pradesh led the pack in domestic tourists with 20.68 crore arrivals, but did not make it to the top 10 States in receiving foreign nationals.
If Tirupati was the star attraction for Andhra Pradesh, Chennai, Mamallapuram, Kancheepuram, Udhagamandalam, Thanjavur, Kodaikanal, Madurai and Rameswaram attracted both domestic and foreign visitors for Tamil Nadu. Most of the foreign tourists came from USA (3.26 lakh), Sri Lanka (3 lakh), UK (2.90 lakh), France (1.50 lakh), Malaysia (2 lakh), Singapore (1.9 lakh), Australia (1.4 lakh) and Cannada (1 lakh).




2013 Election Tracker Survey: How s ur State Governments preforming?






2013 Election Tracker Survey: Uttar Pradesh

In the politically most crucial state of India, the present Akhilesh Yadav government has got a lot of negative reviews. Akhilesh, who led the Samajwadi Party to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, is not seen as an efficient administrator. On almost all the major governance indicators, the votes of Uttar Pradesh have given him a thumbs down. Akhilesh's father Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a better Chief Minister by 53 per cent of the voters. Even among the Samajwadi Party supporters, Mulayam gets 67 per cent votes as compared to 20 per cent votes for his son. After more than a decade, the BJP is coming back strongly in Uttar Pradesh with 28 per cent saying that the party is the best to govern the state. The BSP is seen the best party to govern by 19 per cent, the SP by 16 per cent and the Congress by just 13 per cent. In what can serve as a game changer in the national politics, the BJP has increased its vote share to 27 per cent against the 18 per cent in 2009. The vote share of the ruling SP and the BSP has decreased by 1 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Another party which might see a downfall is the Congress. The survey shows the vote share of Congress has gone down to 16 per cent from 18 per cent in 2009. In terms of seats too, the BJP is way ahead of the SP, the BSP and the Congress. While the BJP is estimated to win 29-33 seats, the SP might bag 17-21 followed by the BSP which could get 14-18 and the Congress which might grab just 11-15 seats.

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