The Time magazine recently, through a controversial cover story on the BJP mascot and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, made the argument that Modi may be the biggest threat Congress leader Rahul Gandhi would face in the 2014 general elections. "Modi, 61, is perhaps the only contender with the track record and name recognition to challenge Rahul Gandhi," says the story. Indian politics at the Centre today is largely between the centre-right Congress and the right-wing BJP. The possibility of regional parties making a major dent nationally, despite doing extremely well in their own regions, is remote. That perhaps explains why Time thinks it's a Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi battle in 2014.
2014, by that logic, for Congress, has assumed a mythic proportion. It is the year when the chosen one - Sonia Gandhi's son and therefore Congress' natural heir - makes his tryst with destiny by becoming the Prime Ministerial candidate (and hopefully the Prime Minister). It's a line the party has followed to the extent of beating it down as a cliché since the 2009 general elections. The question is: how does Rahul do it? How does he overcome what is perhaps his lowest phase, and stand up to a challenge like Narendra Modi?
Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi are mythologies, created by their own parties and the media machinery around them. The difference, however, is crucial. Modi's biggest claim to fame has been presiding over a state-sponsored pogrom in which almost 2000 Muslims were killed, thereby making him the best bet for the kind of polarisation of votes the BJP looks for in an election. Rahul, on the other hand, has no history of a public office and governance - or the lack of it. There is just one brief for him: carry the cross that says 'India's next PM'. Still, there may be a reason behind the Congress clamour for Rahul. Gandhis unite the otherwise divided Congress.
The Time article further says: "With two years left before the next national election in 2014, Congress hopes its young scion, Sonia's son Rahul, will refresh the party, but a resounding loss in a recent state election makes him look vulnerable." The magazine got that one right. The Congress victory in 2009 was attributed to the 'Rahul magic', but that magic has been on a downslide ever since. UP was only the culmination of a series of disappointments for Brand Rahul that began with Bihar, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal among other states in the last two years.
So what is the way forward for Rahul Gandhi? To begin with, he has to look credible. In electoral democracy, mythology and image must translate into votes. True, he has youth on his side. But his adversaries aren't very old either. By the Indian standards where politics is still largely dominated by the geriatrics, Narendra Modi, at 61, may also come across as young. Worse, he is the demi-god for a huge number of youngsters, as displayed by their endorsement of the man on various social networks. Rahul has to realise the tyranny of youth. Almost half of India's voters fall between 20-30 age group, a constituency that he has to be imaginative enough to tap into and be a part of.
Secondly, Rahul has to shed the aggression, desperation and negativity that marked his UP campaign. If there is any lesson for Rahul in the Akhilesh Yadav phenomenon, it is precisely that. The Indian voter today is aspirational and looks for an acknowledgement of his contribution in the India story. He has a stake in it and wants to be addressed as a stakeholder. The days of colonial largesse being distributed among the wretched by their natural rulers are over. Nothing offends the voter more than being looked down upon. Rahul's paternalistic approach to the 'Centre's money' not reaching the states, apart from being a huge cliché, was offending, to say the least.
Third, mentoring is a crucial area that Rahul Gandhi must be attentive to. He has been bracketed with the Congress maverick Digvijaya Singh for too long now. There is no denying that the relationship is based on mutual respect, but the outspoken and brash Singh, in the Indian political context, is perhaps as polarising as Modi is. It's still a mystery as to why mainstream Congress stalwarts like Manmohan Singh, Pranab Mukherjee or P Chidambaram do not come forward to defend Rahul when he takes a beating. Is there a conscious distance that prominent party leaders keep with their chosen one? Why is the job always left for Diggy Raja?
Rahul, on the contrary, should strive for inclusion and larger acceptance. He has to become more mainstream within the Congress, and not come across as some NGO-style activist heading the Grievances and Outreach Cell within the party. To do so would also entail having a vision and a plan - and spelling them out. Rahul's bracketing with a senior mentor like Digvijaya Singh (who, if reports are to be believed, is addressed as 'chacha' (uncle) by Rahul) also reflects his juvenility. And you don't want to be seen as juvenile, especially if you aspire to be India's next PM. It's about time Rahul Gandhi stands up for himself and comes out of harmful shadows.
And finally, Rahul Gandhi has to merge with the India he claims to represent and lead. He should stop parachuting from New Delhi, make a speech at some remote hamlet and come back to the cosy confines of a Lutyen's bungalow. A night out at a Dalit's house or sneaking into a burning village is alright, but they should not be reduced to gimmicks. Instead, Rahul has to stake it out. The grime and dust should show, and not be cosmetic. The voters can easily see through them.
All this having said, what eventually the Congress and Rahul Gandhi (and for that matter, even the BJP and Narendra Modi) have to realise is that elections are not won on mere personality cults. Issues and promises do. You are only as good as your party and its programmes in electoral politics. If Congress has to realise its collective dream of seeing its ‘yuvraj’ Rahul at 7, Race Course Road, it has to make sure the next two years are spent taking care of good governance, devoid of corruption, lethargy and anti-people policies. Mere clamour won’t do.
