Assembly Elections - 2012

	Assembly Elections 2012 – Regional Party holds in UP

           


 In a stunning electoral performance that decimated the ruling BSP in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party won 224 Assembly seats, shattering the ‘national’ conceits of both the Congress and the BJP along the way.

States	Assembly  Seats	Winner  Party	2007-2012  CM	2012-2017*  CM
Uttar Pradesh	403	SP	Ms. Mayawati	Mr. Akhilesh Yadav
Punjab	117	SAD	Mr. Prakash Singh Badal	Mr. Prakash Singh Badal
Uttarakhand	70	INC	Mr. B.K. Khanduri	----
Manipur	60	INC	Mr. Okram Ibobi Singh	Mr. Okram Ibobi Singh
Goa	40	BJP	Mr. Digambar Kambat	Mr. Manohar Parrikar

Uttar Pradesh:- Samajwadi Party won with a comfortable majority in the State, though majority of the poll predictions said that none of the party will get absolute majority. The national Parties, BJP and the INC fought only for the third and fourth positions. Even though the gap in seats between the SP and the BSP was over 140, the vote share difference was only about 2.5%, indicating that the outgoing Chief Minister                Ms. Mayawati had retained her core vote. BSP leader may be on her way out of ‘panchamtal’ – the Chief Minister’s Office in the Secretariat building – but she has the distinction of being the first Chief Minister to have completed a full five-year term. None of the 31 CMs of the State could complete a five-year term. The highest number of seats won by SP so far was 143, in the 2002 Assembly Elections with a vote share of 25.37%. In 2007, the party got 97 seats with a vote share of 25.43%.

Punjab:- The ruling Akali Dal – BJP combine scripted history in the State by returning to power once again. Of the total 117 seats, the alliance bagged 68 seats. This is the first time since the reorganisation of the State in 1966 that an incumbent has overcome the anti-incumbency factor to retain power. The PPP (people’s Party of Punjab), floated by the former Finance Minister and Chief Minister Mr. Prakash Singh Badal’s estranged nephew, Mr. Manpreet Singh Badal, was initially expected to eat into the Akali vote bank, but that not happened.

 Uttarakhand:- The tiny Himalayan State seen the congress as the leading party but with shortfall of majority. The kingmakers are the BSP MLAs and other MLAs as none of the party gets the majority. INC got 32 and BJP got 31 seats. On the other hand, the BJP will find it difficult to stake claim to form government, more so when its Chief Minister Mr. B.C. Khanduri himself lost from Kotdwar Assembly Constituency.

 Manipur:- The Congress secured absolute majority in the Manipur Assembly elections. In the 60-member House, the party secured 42 seats. This will be for the third consecutive time the party will come to power. In 2007, it secured 30 seats and in 2002, it was just 20 seats. The BJP drew a blank in this State. There are 25 new faces this time, including three women. The Trinamool Congress which contested in 47 seats won 7 seats.

Goa:- The Congress suffered its worst-ever defeat in the goa Assembly elections. The BJP, riding the anti-incumbency wave against the Congress-NCP’s ‘corruption, mis-governance’, won a clear majority with 21 seats in the 40-member House. The BJP’s ally, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), won 3 seats. Two independents supported by the BJP also won. The congress managed to get just 9 seats and its ally NCP drew a blank.


The real winner in the Assembly Election 2012 is ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA. It is the first time that the State of Uttar Pradesh no booth capturing and also a peaceful election.

What the election results says?

      There can be no better illustrative examples of ‘democratic’ elections than the defeat of Union Law Minister, Mr. Salman Khurshid’s wife in his home turf despite his attempt to woo the minorities by promises of job quotas and the defeat of the Congress candidates in Gandhi family’s strongholds of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

      The political space for national parties like the Congress and the BJP is shrinking. Correspondingly, powerful regional parties are getting more firmly entrenched in their respective terrains and are poised to play a greater and more eloquent role in shaping of the contours of the ruling dispensation at the Centre and its policies.

      The Congress will feel the tremors of this in the upcoming budget session, Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections.

      The sustained emergence of regional parties in large parts of India poses an existential challenge to the ‘so-called’ national parties it does not necessarily pose a threat to politics of nationalism.

      The emboldened and regrouped regional political satraps like,

ü      West Bengal Chief Minister, Ms. Mamata Banerjee

ü      Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Ms. Jayalalithaa

ü      Bihar Chief Minister, Mr. Nitish Kumar

ü      Odisha Chief Minister, Mr. Naveen Patnaik

            have given notice of confronting it on the question of dilution of the principles of federalism. They have successfully forced the UPA government to put on hold policy decisions like NCTC, FDI in retail sector. These elections results will bound to strengthen their ranks and also Samajwadi Party (SP) and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) may join with them.