Even Mamata, Jaya, Naveen bring terrible news for Congress

There are only three survivors in the Narendra Modi political tsunami; Jayalalitha’s AIADMK, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal. So how they succeed in holding their ground, in fact sweeping an overwhelming majority of seats in their respective states? That the BJP isn’t traditionally strong in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Odisha would have helped. But perhaps the better explanation is that all three were staunch critics and opponents of the Congress-led UPA, as much as Narendra Modi was. The outcome of the 2014 General Election poses an existential threat to the Congress party. Of course the Modi tsunami has been so overwhelming that it has dwarfed the second big trend of this election — a massive anti-Congress wave, which has reduced the grand old party to under 50 seats, less than half its previous worst tally of 114 in 1999 and below the 54 seat benchmark which would have allowed its parliamentary party leader to occupy the office of the Leader of the Opposition.

Modi has caused much of the damage, but so have Jaya, Mamata and Naveen in their own states. The toxicity of the corrupt and inept UPA government has been contagious to anyone associated with it. Among the regional parties wiped out or significantly diminished are the Nationalist Congress Party, National Conference, the DMK, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, all of whom had been closely associated with the Congress in the UPA. Even outside support to the UPA proved deadly. The abject failure of the UPA government, coupled with Rahul’s failure to emerge as a credible leader, has reset the poles of Indian politics.

In the 16th Lok Sabha, the government and the opposition will be led by non-Congress formations. Its failure to cross the 54 seat threshold means that Rahul Gandhi or whoever else leads the Congress in Parliament will have the same status as the persons who lead the TMC, AIADMK and BJD in Parliament. It is quite conceivable that these three regional parties who had already flirted with the idea of a Federal Front before the election could come together to work as a powerful bloc in Parliament. Together, they (AIADMK, TMC and BJD) have almost 90 seats, roughly double the number the Congress will have. If the Congress continues under Rahul Gandhi’s lackluster and largely absentee leadership, the Congress may cede the opposition space in Parliament to the Federal Front and the opposition space on the streets to Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party. There will come a time, after a length honeymoon period, when Narendra Modi and his government will make a mistake — no government is infallible. But given its dismal numbers in Parliament and weak leadership, the Congress may not be the first to pounce on that opportunity. The Congress’s future is at threat, not just because of Narendra Modi’s tsunami but also those leaders who survived it in good shape.