Who will win Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2011?

Election commission of India has announced dates of forthcoming assembly election in Tamilnadu. Assembly Election will take place in Tamil Nadu on 13th April and results of this election will be declared on 13th May. This election result will tell that DMK (The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and its alliance partners will stay in power in Tamil Nadu or All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and its alliance partners will steal power. 

In 2006 Tamilnadu Assembly election, DMK alliance got major success by winning 163 seats out of 234 seats with gain of 94 seats over 2001 assembly election. The main partners of DMK alliance were DMK, Congress, PMK, CPI (M), CPI and Muslim League. On the other hand, AIADMK alliance got only 69 seats with loss of 63 seats. The main partners of AIADMK alliance were AIADMK, MDMK, VCK, JD(S), FB(S). 



Tamil Nadu politics is totally dominated by regional and small political parties with some base of Congress and BJP. Main leading political parties of Tamil Nadu are DMK and AIADMK and this time also, we can see new chief minister from one of these parties only. To the main question that who will win Tamil Nadu assembly Election then one thing is clear that DMK alliance is going to loss some seats because of large numbers of corruption charges against it while AIADMK alliance is going to gain seats.

For making government in Tamilnadu, any political party or alliance needs to win 117 or more seats. In 2009 Loksabha Election too DMK alliance has shown good performance by winning 67% Loksabha seats; though, this time it is not going to be easy for DMK alliance to repeat similar performance because of big corruption scandals and increasing prices of common items.

At present political fight is very fierce in Tamil Nadu with some edge for AIADMK alliance if we give importance to past political history of state; however, presence of so many political parties and factors make it hard to present a good picture. For exact results, we are required to wait till 13th May, 2011 when final counting will take place. 


Available Opinion poll predictions are


Majority of the opinion poll carried by various magazines predicted the victory for AIADMK+ alliances (excluding Nakeeran magazine). In general most of the magazines predicted this result:

AIADMK Alliance         140 plus seats
DMK  Alliance           60 plus seats
Others                  20 plus seats 

Available Post poll predictions are

Headlines Today channel predicted the post poll survey. In this, they said DMK+ will win the elections. 

Counting on : May 13