Gujarat Assembly Election - a look

Gujarat Assembly Election is not just a mere State election. It’s semi-final race to 2014 General Election (or earlier). Already foreign media channels are saying that the next general elections of India will see Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi. All are eyeing on Gujarat. Some says its growth is amazing and some says there is not growth at all. Dec 20, 2102 will show whether Modi’s magic works or not..

Here is a look at the possible scenarios:-

SCENARIO 1 Fewer than 92 seats

Either Congress forms the government or Keshubhai ensures support for the BJP provided Modi is not the CM. He loses power here but, more importantly, his flight to Delhi crash-lands. Apart from the opposition, knives will be out in Modi's own party where a powerful section of the leadership is resentful of his brazen display of prime ministerial ambitions. May get trapped in riot and fake encounter-related legal issues if he doesn't have the government machinery on his side.

SCENARIO 2 93-100 seats

The nervous 90s is a danger zone where he will have to mellow down and mend his high-handed ways. Many within BJP would like to see him in this situation. Disgruntled elements will become powerful and fall prey to Keshubhai and Shankersinh Vaghela who still have allies in the BJP and would be sniffing for a coup. Such borderline victory will test Modi's patience besides impairing his dream to become PM.

SCENARIO 3 101-110 seats

Acomfortable win, though detractors would be still snapping at his heels. Modi will become CM, organize Vibrant Gujarat in January and hang on for a while before moving to Delhi and seizing control of the party. Modi would want to have a significant say in the restructuring of BJP scheduled for early next year. He may pass on the baton to a trusted aide and lead the party into the parliamentary polls in 2014.

SCENARIO 4 More than 115 seats

Having silenced his critics, he would continue to rule Gujarat and still call the shots in BJP nationally until making the shift close to parliamentary polls. He would organize a massive build-up in his favour and negotiate with NDA allies. In the meantime, he would like to see somebody like Arun Jaitley take over from Nitin Gadkari as BJP president. Will have a complete say in deciding party's candidates for the next Lok Sabha polls and its strategy.