Tamil Nadu - ahead for 2014 elections: where DMK & AIADMK stands?

TAMIL NADU

AIADMK and DMK

Congress Isolated

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Jayalalithaa may go with Modi;

Congress will be routed alone

“Theirs is a hand that can only betray”, said Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa in the State Assembly recently, attacking the Congress for slashing Tamil Nadu’s kerosene quota. Dumped by DMK over the issue of Sri Lankan Tamils, Congress is unlikely to win over Jayalalithaa who, after her crushing victory overt he DMK in the 2011 Assembly elections, is well positioned to win a majority of the State’s 39 Lok Sabha seats in the General Elections.

   

       The odds are loaded against the Congress. It may claim anywhere up to 10% of the vote share in the state, but this remains a claim, since it has not contested any poll without alliance partners since it lost power back in 1967.

          There may, however, be a ray of hope for Congress. Sources say DMK, which is the leading partner in the current Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) in the state, would not want to burn all bridges and lose out on the entire Congress vote bank however depleted that may be. DMK is on a weak wicket. Even if the Congress vote share is small, it maybe crucial in several constituencies for DMK and could have a bearing on the final alliance arithmetic.

          BJP and Narendra Modi are working out to reach Jayalalithaa. One regional leader who is not averse to Modi’s rise in national politics. She, in fact, attended Modi’s swearing-in as Chief Minister of Gujarat each time in 2002, 2007 and 2012. The two leaders share apersonal warmth and mutual admiration.

          However, Jayalalithaa does not want to risk a pre-poll tie-up with BJP for fear of losing the minority votes. Post-poll, though if there is one ally that Modi and BJP can be reasonably sure of winning over to NDA, it is the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister.

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18

Going solo quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes

Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu

Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away

State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09

Going solo Highly possible Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.

Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll

State: Tamil Nadu

Related links:-

Article on Jayalalithaa

2014 General Elections: Political parties positions