The great ally bazaar - Indian politics

On March 19, soon after DMK withdrew support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar sent a brief message via a set of emissaries to his friends in the Opposition: "I want to become prime minister for at least six months." The message was conveyed to Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Modi in BJP, to Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik, AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee. Pawar also discussed the matter with Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav when the latter called on him for breakfast on March 20 at his 6, Janpath home in New Delhi.

It had not taken long for UPA's instability to fan ambition. NCP has only nine MPs in the Lok Sabha. That hasn't dissuaded the ailing Pawar from giving the top job a long shot. He needs the support of 263 additional MPs to become prime minister. Put together, all the parties he reached out to, beginning on March 19, add up to around 180 MPs.

The task for the Congress to remain in majority until the next General Elections scheduled for April-May 2014 is a lot easier. After the withdrawal of DMK, UPA is 38 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha. It can make up the numbers with the outside support of SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have 22 and 21 MPs respectively. However, the mercurial Mulayam has wasted no time in serving notice to the Congress. For now, the SP chief says he is not withdrawing support but insists elections will be held early, probably in November 2013. His fickleness has forced the Congress, which has 203 seats of its own, to seek insurance. The ally bazaar is open for business.

The desperate search for allies is not restricted to the remaining term of the current Lok Sabha alone. The fact is that the best-stitched coalition will form a government in the next Lok Sabha. BJP knows it cannot form a government without an expanded NDA; it still remembers its lesson from the debacle of 2009. When shorn of allies, it won just 116 seats. However, the deeply polarising figure of Narendra Modi stands between BJP and an expanded NDA.

The Congress may be running out of allies in 2013, but if BJP were to name Modi its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will call on 'secular' parties to join UPA to defeat him. In Modi, the Congress sees opportunity. Of course, hardly any potential ally of either of the two national parties is in any hurry to commit to a pre-poll alliance. A pre-poll alliance requires seat adjustment. For now, smaller parties which have a strong presence in a particular state want to maximise their own numbers in order to be in a better bargaining position for a post-poll alliance.

That also includes newcomers like B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, the former BJP chief minister who has now formed his own party and is set to challenge his former party in both the Assembly elections in May and the Lok Sabha elections later. There is also the tantalising prospect, for smaller parties, of a Third Front government- should both Congress and BJP fail to muster up impressive tallies. That is what will ultimately force Pawar, Mulayam and their many compatriots in other non-national parties to keep the ally bazaar open for operation until after the next General Elections.

Here's the look at important political parties which are important in deciding who to sit in Delhi?

  

SAMAJWADI PARTY: Current LS Seats: 22

Going solo most likely 54 out of the 80 Uttar Pradesh seats have a decisive Muslim population and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s eyes are firmly set onbeing PM. If he gets more than 30 seas, he becomes kingmaker. If he gets more than 40 seats, he becomes king. If he gets less than 30, he is not significant

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely 19% Muslim vote in UP will go to Congress and SP. But Mulayam will be concerned about dual anti-incumbency; Of his own state government and for UPA

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely Any pre-poll or post-poll alliance will destroy the respective support bases of both SP and BJP, whether or not the latter is led by Narendra Modi.

State: Uttar Pradesh

  

TRINAMOOL CONGRESS: Current LS Seats: 19

Going solo Highly Possible West Bengal may again vote for TMC to keep CPI (M) out. Banerjee will be a ‘queenmaker’ if she gets more than 20 seats. If TMC wins 30 sears, she will decide who forms the government.

Alliance with Congress: Possible but unlikely Muslims, who form 25% of the voters in West Bengal, will approve of the alliance. Only problem is that she has burnt bridges for the moment.

Alliance with BJP led by Modi: Unlikely She cannot afford to alienate Muslims, decisive in 24 of the 42 LS seats.

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Only possible post-poll. Pre-poll alliance will backfire, and is not needed.

State: West Bengal

  

BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY: Current LS Seats: 21

Going solo very likely 60 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh have a decisive Muslim-Dalit combination, which is Mayawati’s core constituency. She has targeted 40seats in UP and is in a serious contest in 40 seats outside the state as well.

Alliance with Congress: Only possible post-poll Mayawati doesn’t ant to confuse her core constituency of 22% Dalits in UP. If Congress needs supports; she’ll oblige but not before her CBI cases are rested.

Alliance with BJP: Unlikely unless it supports her bid to be PM she has a winning chance in UP only if she gets support of Brahmins and Muslims. She will be happy to take BJP support if she gets chance to be PM

State: Uttar Pradesh

DMK: Current LS Seats: 18

Going solo quite likely They would like to win against AIADMK and be part of any government at the Centre. Going with the Congress might not yield a more effective number, but it might ensure less of a division of opposition votes

Alliance with Congress: Possible AIADMK, not Congress, is its main rival in Tamil Nadu

Alliance with BJP: Possible but unlikely Only 6% of the electorate in Tamil Nadu is Muslim. DMK has been in ND before UPA but the overt warmth between Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa is likely to keep them away

State: Tamil Nadu

AIADMK: Current LS Seats: 09

Going solo Highly possible Given a chance, Jayalalithaa would like to sweep the state on her own, raising her tally from the current nine out of 39 seats, and then set for Delhi as the ‘queenmaker’. Her party may very well become the third largest in Parliament.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable Jayalalithaa wouldn’t want to be affected by anti-incumbency against UPA and the government’s stand on the Lankan Tamils issue.

Alliance with BJP: Possible and likely She doesn’t need them electorally but may tie up with them post-poll

State: Tamil Nadu

JANATA DAL (UNITED): Current LS Seats: 20

Going solo possible but unlikely Though Nitish would like to win 20-odd seats from Bihar and become PM candidate, it is unlikely that he can without BJP support.

Alliance with Congress: Improbable and unlikely JD(U) contests the elections against Lal Yadav and the Congress in Bihar. It cannot sup with the enemy.

Alliance with BJP plus Modi: Improbable In a state where 17% of the electorate is Muslim. JD(U) has carved a niche in this vote bank even after being in alliance with BJP. It needs to retain this especially if Nitish wants to be projected a s a potential PM

Alliance with BJP without Modi: Likely Either pre-poll or post-poll tie-up is fine. JD(U)’s combined vote bank with BJP has a lead over RJD and the Congress

State: Bihar

   

YSR COngress: Current LS Seats: 02

Going solo Quite likely It would do well in 25 seas in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, but may struggle in 17 Telangana seats

Alliance with Congress: Possible Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is contesting the elections against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Reddy vote bank feels betrayed by the ruling party. Post-poll, if he decides to tie up with the Congress, it will be only due to CBI pressure.

Alliance with BJP: Possible Approximately 10% of the electorate is Muslim, but not in the region where YSR Congress is the frontrunner. Even Christian voters who don’t support BJP are in aminority

State: Andhra Pradesh

  

BIJU JANATA DAL: Current LS Seats: 14

Going solo very likely The party would like to win against the Congress and be part of a non-Congress government at the Centre.

Alliance with Congress: Unlikely Congress is BJD’s chief rival in Odisha

Alliance with BJP: Quite Possible As only2% of the electorate is Muslim in Odisha. BJD has no obligation to be secular, so Modi’s leadership doesn’t matter. A pre-poll or post-poll tie-up delivers a combined vote bank with a huge lead over Congress

State: Odisha