How Jaganmohan Reddy's release will change fortunes of political parties

The news of YSR Congress president Jaganmohan Reddy received bail in the Central Bureau of Investigation’s (CBI) illegal assets cases has rattled the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) as it alleges that it is a ‘match-fixing’ between the Congress and the YSR Congress. Others are of the view that Reddy’s release after 16 months in jail may accelerate political realignments in Andhra Pradesh ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

          Reddy, 40,  left the Congress in November 2010 after it denied him his father YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s chair following his death. The disproportionate assets case was filed in August 2011 by a then Congress minister and Reddy was arrested on May 27 last year. Reddy, an industrialist-turned politician, made his political debut in 2009 after being elected as member of Parliament from the Kadapa constituency as a Congress party candidate. He resigned from that position in 2010 and in 2011 won by-elections, which he contested as a YSR Congress candidate.

          The latest development comes amid speculation over purported Congress overtures to YSR Congress for an alliance in the Seemandhra region where the ruling party is on the back foot following its nod for a Telangana state.

          The YSR Congress is likely to emerge as a dominant player in the region, having thrown its weight behind the ongoing anti-bifurcation agitation in Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra regions, jointly referred to as Seemandhra. Reddy’s party bagged 15 out of 18 assembly seats in by-polls last year, shortly after his arrest, underlining its emeregnce as a force to reckon with in Andhra Pradesh. The polls for the Andhra Pradesh assembly will be held alongside the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

          Andhra watchers feel that the move pushed TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu closer to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose prime ministerial hopeful Narendra Modi extended a hand of friendship to TDP leadership on a recent visit to Hyderabad. The BJP is likely to enter into a pre-poll alliance with the TDP, negating claims of a section of its leaders and rivals that the main opposition party would find it difficult to attract allies after naming Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.

          At Hyderabad rally last month, the Hindutva poster boy showed his realpolitik skills. Modi invoked the legacy of Naidu’s father-in-law NT Rama Rao and reminded him that the legendary leader was the first to champion “genuine federalism” by taking on the Congress (in 1984) and then forging an anti-Congress front (with the help of DMK boss M Karunanidhi and National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah).

          The TDP feared Reddy’s release from jail the most. The party  is isolated in Telangana, pitted against the TRS and the Congress. In Seemandhra, the TDP is up against Reddy’s YSR Congress and the Congress. Heavyweight leaders within the TDP anticipate a leg-up in 2014 if they can ride on the BJP’s votes.

During his 485-day stay in Chanchalguda prison in Hyderabad, Reddy had met not only his family members but also political leaders of various hues and it was from there that he guided the party leadership on every issue.

          Speculation is rife that the Congress may strike a deal with Reddy and will allow  him to hijack the anti-Telanagana movement and control it. The ruling party may ask the YSR Congress to weaken the movement before the 2014 polls. Reddy’s party wields considerable clout in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions and a political understanding with the party may help the Congress retrieve lost ground.

          Displaying his political acumen, Reddy resigned from Parliament and his mother YS Vijayamma resigned from the state assembly protesting the 30 July decision of the Congress party to bifurcate the state. Political pundits say the calculated gamble helped him in enhancing his image among the voters.

          Congress leaders from Seemandhra are worried that Reddy would have a better chance of attracting the people as his party has opposed bifurcation and has taken on the united Andhra slogan after making an earlier demand that equal justice should be done if the State was to be divided.  They feel that YSR Congress could consolidate its position in the region as the Congress is seen as a villain on the issue of division while the TDP stand has angered people in the Seemandhra region.

          In Telangana region, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) has been openly saying that it would support any party that gives a new state. With Congress set to align with or merge with it the TRS in Telangana and Reddy’s party in Seemandhra region, Naidu will have no option but to inch towards alliance with the NDA for his party's survival. There is many a slip between the cup and the lip and how Andhra events work out remains to be seen.