Elections 2014 : LS pollscape: Tricky alliances in TN, upbeat Jaya, isolated Congress

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa's prime ministerial ambitions received a major boost with the CPI and the CPI-M courting her over the last couple of days. While the Times of India says that the CPI has already decided on even the seat sharing, CPI-M's Prakash Karat said that all details are being worked out.

But in the same media interaction, Jayalalithaa chose to play down the speculation about her prime ministerial ambitions by saying that the priority right now was about winning the elections and the choice of the prime minister would come later.

But the third front experiment has been repeated many times in Indian politics without considerable success. When asked whether it would be any different this time, Karat said that he didn't want to go into any details but that there is a definite possibility because many parties are refusing to ally with either the Congress or the BJP across the nation.

Interestingly, both the main parties in Tamil Nadu, DMK and AIADMK have maintained that they do not want to ally with these national parties for 2014.

While it does not make much of a difference to the Dravidian parties in the state, as Congress and BJP have never held sway in Tamil Nadu, it does make a huge difference for both the national parties and their allies, as Tamil Nadu with 39 seats and Pondicherry with 1 seat account for a total 40 seats.

Tamil Nadu principal opposition, Vijaykant-led DMDK was being courted by the BJP and the DMK, but the party has so far chosen to keep its cards close to its chest. In a meeting held by the party in DMDK, Vijaykant asked the cadre whether he should go it alone or ally with someone. The cadre seemed to favour going it alone, at which point Vijaykant said he will take a decision at an appropriate time. But he did indirectly criticise the DMK, the AIADMK and even mentioned his dislike of 'communal' forces.

DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, expressed his strong dislike towards Congress for its handling of the 2G issue and the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. His efforts to build an alliance with DMDK have proven futile so far. The DMK has chosen to be equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP. So far it has some regional parties like the VCK on its side.

The BJP on the other hand has declared an alliance with Vaiko's MDMK. MDMK has been batting strongly for the Sri Lankan Tamil issue and the issue of fishermen. BJP leader Sushma Swaraj even held a meeting with fishermen in Pamban, hoping to woo the votebank. The BJP is also in talks with Anbumani Ramadoss-led PMK. But both these parties may not get a high number of seats in the polls.

The Congress is perhaps the most isolated in Tamil Nadu. While the 2G debacle has estranged the DMK, most other parties have stayed away because of the handling of the CHOGM and the fishermen issue, both emotive issues in Tamil Nadu, by the Central government.

Congress leaders like Gulam Nabi Azad and GK Vasan though have paid visits to DMK patriarch Karunanidhi in the past few days and Chidambaram also met him during the CHOGM controversy, but nothing seems to have come of these overtures.

Political analysts say that Jayalalithaa is on a strong wicket in the state is likely to get majority seats. While her becoming PM may require many permutations and combinations of the third front to work out, she is likely to still have a king-making position after the polls; something which she is likely to leverage well. Analysts also point out that depending on poll results, many parties could change their stance and go for post poll alliances in Tamil Nadu.