Jaya, Modi and the PM’s job after the next elections

Anybody with access to any English newspaper could not have missed May 16, 2012 morning’s spectacular advertising splurge by the Tamil Nadu government extolling the virtues of Puratchi Thalaivi Selvi J Jayalalithaa on the first anniversary of her return to power. The front page cover ads, complemented by several inside page ads, were impossible to avoid.

Question: why would a Tamil Nadu Chief Minister want English readers outside her state to know how well she is doing in her state? (Her vision includes creating a state with “no poverty” by 2023?) The money could have been better spent buying publicity in her state, which is where her future is going to be decided.

There could several theories. Maybe she wants her current term to be a defining one in the history of her state. Just as Mayawati built her elephant parks, Jaya is investing in paid publicity to build her image. Or, maybe, Tamil Nadu is losing some of its industrial sheen, and she wants to tell the world her state is open to business. But there is also another intriguing possibility: that she has national ambitions.

Consider the current political reality. The Congress is on the ropes nationally. The BJP is a mess, unable to take advantage. In many crucial states (UP, Bihar, Orissa, Andhra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu), regional leaders hold the high cards – and could determine the shape of the next government at the centre. This, surely, would have whetted the appetites of all regional leaders.

The ambitions of Mulayam Singh Yadav , who has been restlessly pacing the corridors of influence after placing his son in the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister’s gaddi, are well-known. He certainly would like to be PM after the next general election.

Nitish Kumar of Bihar has always been mentioned as a possible choice for PM – either of a third front or as leader of a coalition where the BJP does not have enough strength of its own to lead a coalition.

So why not Jayalalithaa?

There are several reasons why Jayalalithaa could be in with a chance.

   First, with the DMK in disarray, she could be controlling as many as 30-35 MPs from Tamil Nadu after the next parliamentary elections.

   Second, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi , who has a good equation with her, could be propping up her candidature as an alternative to Nitish Kumar in case he cannot head the BJP after the next election. There is no love lost between Modi and Nitish Kumar – largely due to the latter’s eagerness to distance himself from the Gujarat CM  – and Modi surely is not going to allow the BJP to back a Nitish Kumar candidature at any cost.

   Third, the BJP – and Modi certainly – would not want a Mulayam Singh or Lalu Prasad leading a third front. This is why a new Third Front is being formed, with Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalithaa forming a new axis with Modi’s quiet backing.

   Fourth, neither the Congress nor the BJP can be assumed to stay in one piece in case the next Parliament throws up a hopelessly hung verdict where both the two main national parties get around 120-140 seats each, and cannot hope to call the shots.

   Fifth, Jaya cannot be unaware of her value to a reduced Congress seeking more outside support, both as a counter-weight to Mamata Banerjee  and in order to keep the BJP out. 

So what could be Jaya’s calculations, assuming she wants a national role?

Assumption one: Between AIADMK, BJD, Trinamool, and Telugu Desam, there could be a chunk of 90 seats. Add small parties like the AGP in Assam, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti and stray independents, there would be around 100 MPs in this block. If Sharad Pawar and Mayawati  can be seen as open to supporting her from the outside with, say, 20-30 MPs between them (Maya cannot back Mulayam Singh in any circumstance), and we add the Akalis and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) with another 40 seats,  that would be another 60-70 seats. With a 130-seat BJP support from the outside, or even the inside, with BJP getting the Deputy PM’s chair as consolation prize, it would be enough to fetch a majority, even if the coalition would have serious contradictions.

Assumption Two: If either the Congress or the BJP manage to secure more than 150 seats, but need new allies, Jayalalithaa and Mamata would hold the key to the government’s stability. Add Naveen Patnaik, and we have a solid block of 75 MPs bargaining for federalism and resources.

Assumption Three: A Jaya candidature makes maximum sense in case there is an early general election – since neither the Congress, nor the BJP is ready for it this year or in 2013. In this situation, a Third Front gain is the most likely possibility after a mid-term poll. One can’t rule out a mid-term poll, since Muyalam Singh, Jayalalithaa, and Mamata Banerjee are in favour of one. It only requires one mishap – a diesel price deregulation crisis, or something else – to precipitate a mid-term election. This is where the Modi factor will play a crucial role in Jaya’s calculations. As things stand, Modi has several challenges before him. First, the Gujarat election due this December. One assumes he will win, even if his majority is trimmed a bit. Next, he has his own party to fight at the centre. His differences with Nitin Gadkari and the current party leadership are well-known. After the Gujarat elections, he could make a serious bid to take control of the party. That, in itself, would not be difficult, but Modi knows that he has serious problems of acceptability in finding coalition partners. This is where an interim arrangement with Jayalalithaa at the centre – especially if there is a mid-term poll — would give him time to build his long-term national alliances and image. Modi has always faced a hostile centre for the last eight years. A friendly PM can be of immense value in dealing with his legal cases in the short-term.

With his control of Gujarat MPs, and even some in neighbouring Maharashtra and Rajasthan, Modi would be in a position to veto his own party’s preferences for PM, both inside the party and outside it. The one person he will not accept will be Nitish Kumar as PM. He may also prefer a Jaya to a Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley, though he may not mind LK Advani for a bit.

A shaky coalition headed by Jaya may suit Modi since its longevity cannot be guaranteed. After the UPA disaster, and a short-lived coalition, the electorate may well look for a strongman. Modi fits the bill.

It is impossible to predict the actual shape of politics over the next two years, since a lot would depend on how politics plays out against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy.

The Jaya-Modi axis is thus a critical element this year and the next.