Q. Is the Sangma magic over for good in
Meghalaya?
A. Well, one Sangma
succeeds another. PA Sangma took the voters for granted in Garo hills and the
results reflect on their record and how the public view their work.
Q. How would you explain the utter lack of
anti-incumbency in Nagaland and Tripura?
A. Tripura: People
voted for peace and stability - as the Manik Sarkar government was seen as
having ended the insurgency and moved modestly forward on infrastructure
projects. Sustainability is the key here now. Also the Congress had no leader
worth the name - the main crowd puller was a scion of the erstwhile royal
family but he was given no official role or post. People can't trust a party
which can't trust its own major campaigners. I doubt also if Rahul Gandhi's
bombastic claim that the Congress would toss the CPI-M into the sea went down
well: it boomeranged.
Q. Incumbents have been re-elected in all 3
states. in Meghalaya it may be due to fractured opposition. But in Nagaland and
Tripura has congress become so in-effective?
A. Congress in
Nagaland had four contenders for the job, they did not present a united front
(sic) and lacked conviction; in addition, in Tripura, as I have said in an
earlier post, they had no leader worth the name who could match the CPI-M track
record or its consistency. People nowadays are rarely swayed by public oratory
or major promises: they judge parties and candidates on the basis of elections.
IN many ways, national parties like Congress and BJP become regional parties in
such contests with local issues, image, community support and party
mobilization as much as performance dominating and influencing votes.
Q. If the Megahalaya like trend continues at
national level where the fight is congress vs the rest, incumbent may hit a
hatrick in 2014?
A. There are a
significant number of states under the control of non-Congress and non-BJP
parties. From east to west, north to south, this is the story -- Samajwadi
Party, Akali Dal, AIADMK, BJD, NPF etc. These would have a great influence on
the 2014 results, its too early to call though I would wager that the Congress
would lose a number of the seats it is holding.
Q. What does North-East poll results mean for
Congress?
A. That they don't
have any local leaders of any substance and stature in most of the states of
the region and that this bodes ill for the part in the 2014 elections for the
Lok Sabha as they need to find winning candidates. Also that young members of
First Families at the central or local levels may not swing the state elections
if they have nothing to show for a track record, either by working in a public
office or working in the state. So called charisma and family connections don't
work beyond a point: people want their problems understood and resolved as all
elections are becoming more and more 'local'.
Q. What is the message from Electorate?
A. That media
coverage doesn't mean that you've got the votes and that crown princes without
a record of actually delivering on promises and holding public office can draw
crowds without winning their confidence or votes
Q. Which politicians corrupt more in
Meghalaya, Garos or Khasis?
A. All parties.
Q. Can these results have an impact on the
polls in Assam
A. The Assam state
elections are still nearly four years away. Issues like demands for peace so
that people can live in security, farmers' rights, land alienation, lack of
communal peace and basic governance -- health, education and delivery of
services will count more.
Q. What impact will it have on Lok Sabha election
next year?
A. As I've said
earlier, it stresses a growing trend -- that regional parties and
non-'national'parties like Samajwadi, BSP, DMK, AIADMK etc will have major
roles in the next elections. Question will be who will they align with or which
of the big parties will tie up with them. Also that all elections are
increasingly becoming local with local issues and leaders pulling votes and
crowds.
Q. BJP opens its account in Nagaland by
winning one assembly seat. Your views.
A. In Nagaland and
other Hill states of NE, they will be one-seat party! Better to invest those
huge funds elsewhere where they are taken more seriously as where they have an
understanding of basic issues.
Q. Is the Congress defeat next year in
Nagaland and Tripura inevitable?
Yes.
Q. Why Is Left wining in Tripura?
As I've said before,
peace and security, stability and some development. Also a total lack of
Congress leadership. in other states: 1. stability concern in Meghalaya and 2.
in Nagaland a lack of public expectations from any party as well as a sense
that Chief Minister Nephiu Rio can push the peace process and some development
work forward. A pity that no woman candidate won in Nagaland though.
{from CNN-IBN channel}
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