In what could be seen as an
endorsement of its government in Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK has increased
its vote share by 3% points – from 23% in 2009Lok Sabha elections to 26% now. Tamil
Nadu voters are behind the government of AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa and rate
it better than the previous M Karunanidhi regime. The Karunanidhi-led DMK's
decision to withdraw from Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is also
viewed as a political drama.
The satisfaction with Jayalalithaa administration is
down from 70 per cent in 2011 to 65 per cent in 2013 and dissatisfaction up
from 16 per cent two years ago to 28 per cent at present.
4 of every 10 respondents believe that the DMK walking
out of the UPA is political drama. A fourth of traditional DMK voters too
endorse this stand. Not surprisingly, its popularity too has
dwindled and the AIADMK and the Congress are poised to benefit form this development.
The ruling AIADMK seems to be
gaining ground in southern and north-central Tamil Nadu whereas the Congress
appears to be doing better in upper-North and western Tamil Nadu. BJP vote
shares too register an increase in Tamil Nadu.
Overall at the moment the
wind is clearly blowing in favour of J. Jayalalithaa, who most people say has
provided a better government than Karunanidhi. But it is still early days. Alliances
between parties have yet to be worked out and the role of several other smaller
regional parties will be crucial to the outcome in 2014. A lot will depend on alliance
arithmetic and which and how many parties the AIADMK and the DMK tie-up with in
the run-up to the Lok Sabha election.
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