Monday, April 30, 2012

Who is next President of India? Race between two "A"s...

It speaks much for the latent narrow-mindedness of our political culture that the prime qualification for the job of India’s president is not competence or integrity, but his or her communal identity. So one should not be too surprised if Vice-President Hamid Ansari makes it to the top job since he is a Muslim. Of course, he is a good man, but that is not why he is being chosen. Five years ago, Pratibha Patil was trotted out from the Congress stable not because her CV was right, but because of her triple identity fit: as a Hindu, it would stop tongues wagging about all the top jobs going to minorities in Sonia Gandhi's dispensation. Secondly, the Congress could claim credit for putting the first woman in the office of president. And, third, as a Maharashtrian, the Congress deftly used her regional identity to split the Shiv Sena from the BJP on this issue.  Communal or regional identity is thus the logic behind every name doing the rounds this time, whether it is Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde or Speaker Meira Kumar (both are Dalits), or Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi (North-East), or Farooq Abdullah (Muslim), or Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal (Sikh).
With elections to the presidency less than two months away, the UPA has begun its cat-and-mouse game to ensure that someone it can depend on will occupy Rashtrapati Bhavan before the next general elections. Ansari, who managed to save the government from defeat in the Lokpal debate in the Rajya Sabha last December, is there because he is dependable and a Muslim. However, the game is never over till it’s over, and this time the UPA has launched more elaborate consultative processes with allies and others. Ansari’s name, like that of Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, may just be a red herring before a final choice is made.
In the initial round of consultations, the UPA’s first goal was to scuttle the chances of APJ Abdul Kalam – to whose candidature the BJP and the Samajwadi Party were favourably inclined – and this has been effectively achieved by talking to the DMK. In talks held by Defence Minister AK Antony with DMK boss M Karunanidhi, the octogenarian seems to have rejected Kalam, but expressed a preference for a “Muslim” candidate. Which currently indicates Ansari. A few days ago, another windbag with very few votes in the presidential sweepstakes, Lalu Prasad, rooted for Ansari and explicitly rejected Kalam on the ground that he has already been president once. As if the job is about giving everyone a chance rather than electing a popular president.
Here are some conclusions:-
Conclusion One: UPA will not accept Kalam, and his candidature is dead on arrival. The other name doing the rounds is Pranab Mukherjee – the finance minister. This name, of course, is a redder herring than even Ansari’s. If there is one name Sonai Gandhi will never accept it is that of a widely acceptable, politically well-connected and administratively competent person like Pranab Mukherjee. If 2014 produces a hung parliament, she needs a pliant occupant at Rashtrapati Bhavan, not someone with a mind of his own.
However, there is another reason to rule Mukherjee out: he himself may not be keen on the job since if there is indeed a fluid political situation after the next election, it is possible for him to be the long-shot consensus candidate of a breakaway Congress, supported by many regional parties, including Trinamool, NCP, Samajwadi Party and many others. But before we look at some of the other names, a bit about presidential math is vital: of the total nearly 11 lakh votes available, the UPA has 4.6 lakh and the NDA 3.04 lakh. Around 2.62 lakh belong to non-UPA, non-NDA parties, including the Samajwadi Party, the BSP, the AIADMK, the Left parties, the BJD and the TDP, among others. The rest belong to minor parties.
The UPA is less than 90,000 votes short of a clear majority in the electoral college (see table here and below), assuming it has Trinamool firmly on its side. If this happens, the UPA needs only the Samajwadi, or a combination of BSP plus the Left, or the BJD.

Conclusion Two: The BJP has almost no role to play in the presidential sweepstakes, except in one situation: the non-UPA, non-NDA parties produce a united candidate, in which case the BJP swing vote can push their candidate through.
Conclusion Three: The crucial players in the next presidential vote will be Samajwadi 68,812 votes), the BSP (43,349), the Left (51,682) and Trinamool (48,049). Since the Samajwadi and BSP will note vote together (at least, not willingly), nor the Trinamool and the Left, the Congress strategy will have to focus on Mulayam Singh and Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam can be bought off if he is given some say in the vice-presidential sweepstakes, and Mamata with a Bengal bailout package. If these two stay with the UPA, the Congress nominee is through. The odds are thus 90 percent that a Congress-candidate whom Mamata and Mulayam will not object to will become the next president. Tarun Gogoi is too valuable in Assam to spare for the moment. Pranab is out, because Sonia does not trust him fully. Badal is out, because he is too close to the BJP. Sushil Kumar Shinde and Meira Kumar are possibilities – but will perhaps not draw much enthusiasm in the Samajwadi camp. This suggests that Hamid Ansari remains the front-runner. But if his name is just a red herring, one should not rule out AK Antony himself – or Manmohan Singh.
If Manmohan Singh  is ruled out since Sonia wants him to keep the seat warm till 2014, Antony could be the man for the occasion. As the first Christian to occupy the presidential throne, and as a super-trusted loyalist of Sonia Gandhi, Antony could be the dark-horse in the race. Mild-mannered Antony has few enemies anywhere in the political spectrum.
For now, it could be a toss-up between Ansari and Antony.



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