Mid-term poll: There is a 60 percent chance of a general election being announced if the Congress does well in Uttar Pradesh. This could happen somewhere in October 2012. Without an election, UPA-2 cannot continue to govern – due to internal contradictions and worsening economic situation.
Politicians: Fortunes of politicians? Mayawati will marginally lose UP, but will rule with outside support from either BJP or Congress. Narendra Modi will win his December elections comfortably. Jayalalithaa's assets case verdict. Rahul Gandhi's fortune?
The economy: India will probably grow at 7 percent next year, but inflation could re-emerge in the second half, especially if pre-election political and social spending start kicking in. The last bout of inflation was kicked off by soaring support prices for food. History could repeat itself in 2012-13, this time to support the Food Security Bill’s procurement requirements.
The rupee: The global risk-aversion should begin abating in the second half of 2012, which means the rupee should start strengthening. The rupee should fall well below Rs 50 to the dollar by end-2012. A return to Rs 44-45 levels is some way off.
The markets: After a weak first-half, the markets will start gathering steam in the second – especially if some reforms are announced in the budget. The Sensex should cross 20,000 by the end of the year and hit a new high by March 2013.
Scams: The black money, tax-havens and export scams will blow up in 2012. The first verdicts in the 2G scam will come in the second half of 2012.
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